Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 11/1/2018 20:48

Nod,
I think the House Brokers are just be conservatively guided by management All last winter Peel Hunt were behind the curve with their forecasts and that's continued during Autumn 17 when growth has gained momentum. Before last years Jan trading update they were forecasting 57.9p for 2017 and 53.2p for 2018. That's quite a bit shy of 97p in H118 :-)

At some point the rate of growth will moderate but as you said the increased investment in manufacturing doesn't suggest sales are going to be falling off a cliff.

[nod] 11/1/2018 20:45

US markets going up and up. This positive sentiment will ripple around the globe making people feel good and spend money.FOMO will stir investors. We see a lot of money going into highly speculative companies that have low or no profits and into "investments" that are a con. Hopefully, some investors are looking for profit growth and dividends.

[rhomboid] 11/1/2018 18:38

Sorry CH you’re quite right it was Peel Hunt🙄

[cockerhoop] 11/1/2018 18:19

It'll be interesting to see MFID2 affects Research Tree long term? I was thinking of subscribing.

Peel Hunt though are the House (and I believe only broker that cover GAW).

[rhomboid] 11/1/2018 17:50

I think MFID2 has knackered research tree🙄I’;m sure I’ve seen the note, not sure it hung together as a piece of work,revenue was up but no change to eps which makes no sense🙄I get the impression Finncap are waiting for a further TU before going for the big upgrade, maybe next week? I’m grateful that I’ve been able to top up at last years prices.

[cockerhoop] 11/1/2018 17:49

walbrook82,

Can you explain why you think the brokers forecast for 2018 are conservative (I agree) yet the one for 2019 are spot on?

I should point out 12 months ago the forecasts for 2018 were behind 2017 and look where we are now!

[walbrock82] 11/1/2018 17:29

Do you want to know if GAW share price will continue to rise or has earnings peaked and become unsustainable?

The analysis is right here:

[shanklin] 11/1/2018 17:13

Incidentally, on Stockopedia, the sales forecasts have been increased to the numbers provided by xjhoward yesterday but the EPS and PBT have been left unchanged. No idea if that is consistent with Peel Hunt's note.

[cockerhoop] 11/1/2018 08:15

Shanklin,

I think you're correct in suggesting you've significantly underestimated the effect of operational gearing on your estimates above.

An extra £11m of revenue for 2018 should equate to an approx additional 20p of EPS. So around the 181p mark.

[nod] 11/1/2018 02:21

The purpose of our own retail stores is to recruit new customers and to give them a place to play, paint and talk (like a GW community centre). Recruiting new customers is critical for GW as many customers only stay a year or so having decided the hobby is not for them. Other customers may stay 3 or 4 years. Each person leaving the hobby needs to be replaced with a new customer for our company to stand still. To grow, we need to recruit a lot of extra new customers.The store count at the end of November was 469 own stores. The stores have always been a huge cost for GAW and in many years Retail (the own store channel) makes a loss, as it did in H1 last year.To put the cost into perspective, the operating cost of the 469 stores was 23 million in H1 (last H1 was 22.2 million). With the significant increase in Retail sales, the channel made a small operating profit this H1 of 1.5 million compared with an operating loss last H1 of 2.4 million. See page 2 of the Interims.Over the past 20 years a lot of effort has gone into making the stores as effective as possible in recruiting and retaining customers while managing each store's costs and profit.The expansion into big stores in shopping malls gave GW huge visibility but proved unsustainable during the inevitable economic downturn. Stores are closed and new ones opened every period. This H1 was 17 opened and 10 closed.

[shanklin] 10/1/2018 15:44

Extrapolating from recent results...

...Were FY revenue 206.6m that would up the current year EPS forecast to circa £1.72 from £1.61, with say a 10p EPS increase in the 2019 estimate to circa £1.46 from £1.36.

Hopefully these are significant under-estimates of what is actually going to happen.

All IMHO.

[xjhoward] 10/1/2018 15:22

F19 upgraded as well by 10m according to Reuter

[rickyy] 10/1/2018 15:21

Another early morning tree shake on low volumes!!

[xjhoward] 10/1/2018 15:12

Broker upgraded revenue by £11m to ,206.6m

[alphabeta4] 10/1/2018 14:47

Bought my first holding here this morning -2400 looks good value to me - if there's a 47:53 revenue split (which looks to be about the average to me) then the analyst forecast on revenue looks out by 15% and operational gearing should then add further. Even 15% takes the current £24 target to £27.60.
As an aside I think IC are wrong on their hold recommendation and it wouldn't be the first time - I remember them saying hold kws after a good run at c£4.60 - they're now £15!

[allstar4eva] 10/1/2018 14:42

Sanity being restored!

[panic investor] 10/1/2018 13:49

Bookbroker - stocks don't go up in straight lines As far as cryptos go good luck - they are worthless (you can't buy anything of substance with them) and when that explodes there's going to be some angry people about lol

[prospective investor] 10/1/2018 13:47

Doubled my holding today. Let's see what happens in 2018, I believe this company has lots more to offer.

[discodave4] 10/1/2018 12:43

"but the share trades like a cryptocurrency!"Can you expand on that.DD

[shanklin] 10/1/2018 11:04

Like Lego then?

[bookbroker] 10/1/2018 10:58

Amazed that this company has such high margins, and what’s more they have achieved such staggering returns over the last two years, did not realise there are so many people who like playing with plastic toys, it’s only a games company, but the share trades like a cryptocurrency!