Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[trident5] 05/1/2018 20:07

I don't think they'll adopt that approach this year - they didnt in 2016.

[cockerhoop] 05/1/2018 19:17

Trident5,

The H1 results announcement (10th Jan) last year didn't cover the Christmas period, there was an additional TS & Dividend the following week (17th Jan) that covered that.

[trident5] 05/1/2018 18:31

The Tuesday report will have an impact as it will cover the all important Xmas period

[shanklin] 05/1/2018 16:02

Yes, that video is fascinating. Suggests there is lots more potential for GAW to up its game.

[martinthebrave] 05/1/2018 15:46

I notice that today's intra day "dip" has been bought out. Strong support at 2500p.

[trigger16] 05/1/2018 12:21

Btw many thanks Martinthebrave for posting that video. Had some very useful background info from someone who seems to know what they are talking about. Has helped convince me there may be quite a bit more in the tank here, but still unsure how much...

[trigger16] 05/1/2018 12:11

Possibly, though the year before last they provided the trading update in the half year report. I’m not sure they have a consistent approach as to when they update on trading against expectations. I imagine it is driven partly by caution about when to say they are ahead.

There seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty around how long the current growth run will continue - if it has continued at the same rate as H1 through to January then current estimates would look far too low. Market seems a bit sceptical at the moment - could be a good buy here imho.

[cockerhoop] 05/1/2018 11:07

I'm not convinced Tuesday will provide loads of new share price driving information. We already know the Sales and Op Profit figures for H1. Last year there was a trading update the following week which was more significant in terms of outlook.

It will though be interesting for detailed channel information, royalty income etc.

Luxury goods manufacturer? They certainly have the margins but I'm pretty sure you won't find Gucci & Armani next to the Geek Cafe in Brum :-)

[martinthebrave] 05/1/2018 10:22

Only one more day of jitters to put up with before Tuesdays Half Year update. Hoping they will "under promise & over deliver" once again.🤞

[nod] 05/1/2018 09:32

A lifestyle provider ... would suggest health and wellness to me.

[shanklin] 05/1/2018 07:19

Nod

Found your post 1897 very interesting.

So we are a luxury goods manufacturer?

Until this point, I had thought of GAW as a lifestyle provider.

Cheers, Martin

[nod] 05/1/2018 05:00

Games Workshop has had an interesting few years. Since the decision to be more liberal with their Warhammer franchise was made, we’ve seen some duds lay by the wayside, but we’ve also seen some decent ideas from unexpected sources. The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth sets out to bring the futuristic Warhammer 40,000 universe to both PC and VR. It’s an interesting tactical game at heart, though it does need a bit more work done in various places.

Full article:

[nod] 04/1/2018 20:22

There appear to be jitters around retail and whenever retail jitters surface GAW takes a bit of knock even though it's a manufacturer rather than a retailer. Considerable turmoil in the retail sector continuing into 2018.

Breaking news a few moments ago:
"Sears closing another 100 stores
That consists of 64 Kmart stores and 39 Sears stores, all of which are expected to close between early March and April of this year.
"We will continue to close some unprofitable stores as we transform our business model so that our physical store footprint and our digital capabilities match the needs and preferences of our members," the company said in a statement.

[essential] 04/1/2018 16:38

Move on tiny volume.MMs trying to pick up cheap stock before RNS?

[allstar4eva] 04/1/2018 01:33

Results next Tuesday and they could be stunning. I don't expect a significant pullback between now and then but far stranger things have happened...

[chrisatom] 03/1/2018 23:14

Good info Nod. GAW completed a backtest of the £25 area yesterday and today and found support, although still at low volume. £24.60 a good place for a stop. Will be keeping a close eye to see if we can get another strong rise as the longer term indicators are starting to point to a pullback.http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GAW.L&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p25024271300&a=566912390

[nod] 03/1/2018 22:04

On Adam's YouTube posted above one of the comments by a viewer briefly explains that GAW is a manufacturer of luxury goods. I have read this luxury classification a few times over the years by analysts and journalists. It is also my interpretation of GAW and explains why GAW's sales are cyclical. It also explains why many veterans complain bitterly about prices. They may have been able able to afford the models 15 years ago but struggle to afford them today because their financial circumstances change.

Over the past 18 months, I have noticed a significant increase in the number of luxury cars and luxury products in my 'hood. This is partly fuelled by a massive rise in property prices but also a more affluent top half of the working population (or maybe just the top quarter).

There are luxury brands indices and I thought it would be interesting to see how these have performed over the past year or so. Do the luxury indices align with what I've seen in my 'hood and with GAW sales?

The S&P Global Luxury Index tracks the worlds top 80 luxury brands. Okay, GAW is not in this index but it may give an overview of luxury brand sales. I found the index maps closely to GAW's fortunes over the past 18 months:

After a slow two-year decline from 2014-16 the index began to pick up 18 months ago, around June 2016, and then in January 2017 spikes up sharply. This suggests the 80 luxury brands in this S&P index are doing rather nicely after a sluggish few years. Yup, this maps to my 'hood and GAW sales.

My conclusion is I don't see the uptrend ending in 2018 unless something catastrophic happens. Economies are strong, the wealthy have a high disposable income, consumer confidence is particularly strong in the USA and rippling around the globe.



S&P Global Luxury Index (INDEXSP:SPGLGUN)

[nod] 02/1/2018 02:40

Adam does a good job with his Tabletop Minions videos. He's been doing these for a long time and I suspect GAW has taken a few ideas for their Warhammer TV.

There's perhaps a misconception that Kevin Rountree is a new kid in town, but he has been at GAW since 1998. He has been a key person as CFO since 2008 - over nine years - and became COO/CFO in 2011, when he took on an expanded role.

Kevin became CEO on 1 January 2015 - exactly three years at the helm. He has been one of only two or three executive directors for many years (currently only two execs).

The evolution of GAW has been 20 years in the making and not an overnight phenomenon. International store expansion across Europe and North America have been key to today's success. North America was a bumpy road and costly mistakes were made, but it is paying off handsomely now that economies of scale have been surpassed.

Kevin was in charge when AoS was rolled out, so does not have an unblemished record.

[discodave4] 01/1/2018 19:56

Martin Yep ditto, excellent find.DD

[cockerhoop] 01/1/2018 16:10

Martin,

Good find, from Nov 2016 but excellently articulates the points I have been trying to make on the board regards the step change in marketing since Kevin Rountree has taken the helm. Tends to support the theory that what we may be experiencing here is a step change increase in players rather than a cyclical rise.

[martinthebrave] 01/1/2018 12:52

The Crazy Changes at Games Workshop

An excellent video:

[nod] 31/12/2017 05:20

Happy New Year everyone

It's great to see a friendly and interesting bulletin board.

Less than six hours of 2017 left for me, so this is definitely my last post of 2017.

I checked back at my comment on New Year's Day a year ago and can only wish for the same again please ...

Nod 01 Jan '17 - 07:39 - 1063 of 1891

Happy New Year to all GAW traders.

I have a feeling that 2017 will be a good year (at least the first half)

[3rd eye] 28/12/2017 16:17

GAW GamesWorkshop breaks out YET again and Ive lost count this year how many times it says its going to beat expectations. Stock trades on P/E rating of 16.2 to 2018 and forecast EPS increase is a walloping 61.3%. They report again on 9th JAN. Certainly worth a punt up to TS.

[chrisatom] 28/12/2017 09:57

Some good follow through since last week on the break of the bull wedge, looking good so far for the measured move up to £30-32. It has also broken the previous negative divergence on the MACD which is a good sign and everything is on a 'hold long' signal at the moment. Only downside is that it's all on light volume with lots of small retail buyers. A couple of big sellers could knock it back a bit. Hope everyone had a great Xmas and a happy new year to all.

[cockerhoop] 22/12/2017 22:01

Merry Christmas all. Enjoy the festive break. Health and Happiness for 2018...............and ideally a new edition of AoS :-)