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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Developments Plc | FDEV | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.60 | -0.81% | 195.00 | 16:35:05 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200.00 | 190.00 | 200.00 | 195.00 | 196.60 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 11/11/2024 09:43 by parob I'm not pumping I'm just stating where my FDEV profits have gone and for investors to DYOR if they take a look. I think both APTA and CREO do well from current prices but that's just my opinion.I may be back here depending on newsflow and price. I've previously been in APTA and CREO so know quite a bit about them already. CREO less risky of the two but APTA has more of a chance of multibagging imo. |
Posted at 06/11/2024 20:43 by parob I get the impression quite a few private investors have sold out and its institutions driving this price rise especially when you look at the volume. |
Posted at 01/11/2024 08:28 by parob Price for PC2 has always been £39.99 as far as I know and Frontier have always had a Halloween sale for their older titles, nothing new there.Less than one week to go until the release of the much anticipated PC2 which has lots of pre-release hype and great reviews across social platforms/forums and gaming media. Looking for an 'in-line' or beat in the next trading update to finally break this through £3 and onwards to the next target. Chart has bounced back recently, Viking have taken 5% stake and may still be adding. They have a good track record. Many investors who bought at the lows are holding for a longer-term recovery over many years now Frontier have changed their strategy back to CMS games which has been working so far, hence the 'better than expected' trading updates and 150%+ gain from the lows. Sector has been out of favour but could that be changing now.Personally feel FDEV and TM17 are potential acquisition targets. |
Posted at 20/9/2024 19:24 by mirabeau Are recovery prospects at video games developer Frontier Developments FDEV0.61% coming together, or is this investment still highly speculative? Viking Global Investors thinks now is the time to buy at around 245p; its Viking Capital subsidiary has in recent months accumulated a 5% stake in this £97 million company. It does, however, manage £44 billion equivalent, so may prefer a few higher-risk/reward plays as part of diversification in pursuit of capital growth. Invest with ii: Top UK Shares | Free Regular Investing | What is a Managed ISA? Yesterday, it was announced that this stake had increased implicitly from 1.9% last July, hence appears to be a verdict on Frontier’s annual results to 31 May, declared last Friday. Mind that in July and at end-August respectively, Arcadian Asset Management trimmed its stake modestly to 2.6% and Invesco to 5.6%. I examined Frontier last November at 147p after a 96% share price fall, intrigued as to whether a “mean” or average performance rate for the business could exist – somewhere in between the exceptional demand for games during Covid lockdowns and its aftermath. The stock chart shows a classic boom/bust pattern around Covid. Frontier floated at 127p in mid-2013 it peaked above 3,300p then ceded nearly all of it: At 147p I sought more evidence so rated the shares a “hold”. The price did ease to a 130p range in this year’s first quarter after revenue fell, then losses increased at January’s interim results to 30 November. But an “in line” trading update on 2 April was enough to trigger a run from 140p to 225p, although it’s unclear whether insiders sensed what was in store, as a more bullish update on 7 May saw this rally continue to 300p. It has been a good example of whether to take your cue mainly from the chart – anticipating some extent of mean-reversion upwards – or insist on proof in numbers, especially profit. Frontier guided expectations for adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) upwards last May. Perhaps a more important call is whether the business overall is now on the cusp. This stock has been in a sideways-volatile trend since May - it was down to 230p earlier this month and it slipped 3% to 247p yesterday compared with rises elsewhere in response to the US interest rate cut. A tale of two financial half-years, and better prospects Annual results to 31 May showed revenue disappointingly down 15% to £89 million, although a £97 million market value implies a modest price/sales ratio of 1.1x at 245p currently – such that if costs are better managed and return on investment kicks in, the PS ratio should be roughly 1.5x at least. The narrative cites under-performing game launches in the first half, partly offset by a strong back catalogue performance of “creative management simulation” games mimicking real-life situations. CMS outperformance persisted into the second half, meaning the annual revenue fall was ahead of expectations. A carrot is dangled by way of the strongest-ever release of games set to launch over the next three years. Among the titles, Planet Coaster 2 is due to launch this autumn, hence scope for useful news from reviews, leading to user numbers; then a third Jurassic World game in the May 2026 year and a further (as yet unannounced game) in 2027. Unless more are under wraps, that implies reliance on several proving hits. Alongside better revenue prospects, management says it has cut annual operating costs by 20%, albeit they’re yet to manifest given the annual income statement shows sales and marketing costs down only 3% to £11.6 million and administrative expenses also by 3% to £13.7 million. Implicitly, they mean “run-rate̶ The biggest cost element is £68 million research and development expenses, the same as the May 2023 year, although it’s unclear whether that is included (I rather doubt) in boasting 20%-lower costs. Sometimes, intellectual property development companies do go through investment phases that lead to harvesting, but in games there seems an element of “running to stand still” – always needing to prepare a next big release. See the material element of annual capital expenditure persisting in Frontier’s eight-year table below. But combine these two broad elements – potentially improving sales against lower costs – and there is scope for quite an inflection point. The table shows £18 million net profit achieved on similar £89 million revenue in the May 2019 year; the little difference between operating and net profits in the trend over years implies benefits from tax credits linked to R&D. This company has achieved reported operating margins over 20% in four of the past years from 2016: Radical cash flow elements, albeit potentially reducing PE The May 2024 annual results highlight cash up 4% to £29.5 million, although referencing the cash flow statement, cash generated from operations halved to £22 million. After this and on the investing side, investment in new titles eased 30% to £29 million, and on the financing side £9 million tax was received. There was also no repeat of £3 million share purchases for an employee trust in 2023, nor a £1.3 million loan repayment. There were, hence, some significant dynamics within the slight rise in cash held, and the outcome could have been different than a pleasing rise. It is speculative but, yes, there are grounds to believe Frontier can mean-revert its performance – the chief uncertainty being, to what degree? Consensus anticipates a small normalised loss for the current financial year and only £1 million net profit in 2026. Unless R&D costs continue to weigh heavily, I sense this is probably cautious guidance from the company to its broker, and there is scope to outperform. While the May 2026 price/earnings (PE) multiple is 80x based on projected earnings per share (EPS) of 3.1p, eventual mean-reversion towards EPS more like 20p would imply a PE of 12x. A case for intangible value A “price-to-book Looking back to 2016, for example, a share price around 200p compared with net asset value near 67p a share, hence a 3x ratio. Frontier made only £1.4 million net profit that year; the premium correctly anticipated the advance to £18 million in respect of May 2019 (before Covid lockdown sales manifested). While 56% of net assets comprise mainly intangibles also goodwill, you can expect this for an intellectual property type business. Warren Buffett has argued – primarily regarding newspapers – that intangible values are integral to modern business valuation. Implicitly, such a view included brand loyalty to Apple Inc AAPL 1.17% , which (through success) became Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B BRK.B 1.05% ’s biggest holding. Obviously, the more rapid turnover in video games does not have a general loyalty factor to the extent of The Washington Post or Apple advancing the iPhone brand. Frontier wrote down its “other intangible assets” by 37% to £35.7 million over the last financial year due to amortisation and impairment. So, there is a case for intangible value albeit lacking longevity. A ‘good’ start to the new financial year While a top management might strictly be positioned now to quantify the first quarter, Frontier cites “ongoing strength with the CMS-led back catalogue, with Planet Zoo and Jurassic World Evolution 2 again the star performers. There is a “fear of missing out” aspect to my conclusion, after awaiting more proof last November and ending up missing a two-thirds re-rating to the current price, or more than doubling to over 300p since May. But there seem decent odds that the business at least is on a rising trend once again. Frontier is speculative, yet Viking’s stake-building affirms my sense that the shares are a Buy. Edmond Jackson is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of interactive investor. |
Posted at 12/9/2024 07:30 by parob Investors chronicle.Frontier Developments plots turnaroundhTTps://ww |
Posted at 11/9/2024 09:47 by grahamytrain Is there any institutional investors in DDEV? |
Posted at 11/9/2024 07:04 by parob Some investors were obviously a little nervous going into these results hence the pullback, but with everything on track for FY25 expectations, FY24 can now be put behind them and we can look forward to a CMS focussed future and return to profitability. |
Posted at 10/9/2024 19:04 by mr euro You pays your money you take your choice. Sometimes you have to make your bets and stick with it until the story changes.You can read my posts from sometime ago and I have always been about the mid/long term roadmap. Nothing has changed despite the weekly share price volatility. If we are up or down 30% tomorrow it makes no difference to me. I am with the story on this one. PC2 will be huge IMHO. Not seen such a buzz around a title from FDEV for a long time. I doubt there are too many bigger private investors in FDEV than me. If I have got it wrong, then we move on and correct the mistake for next time. |
Posted at 12/7/2024 12:01 by parob The return to CMS is paying off, and both gamers and investors alike appear to prefer this model.One to hold for a few years imo as revenues and profits increase as time passes.So looking forward to the day we get a close above 300p. I know a few technical traders are watching that level. |
Posted at 09/5/2024 18:10 by yankhanson > Jurassic World 2 ... was a success.People, beware the uprampers on this board. The truth is easy to find on newswires e.g. Bloomberg: "Frontier Developments shares fall 38% on cut to sales guidance PC sales of British firm’s latest game disappoint investors U.K. gaming company Frontier Developments Plc said PC sales of “Jurassic World Evolution 2” were lower than expected, leading investors to bail on the stock. " |
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