Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 29/5/2020 12:08

Building a floor at £20'ish or waiting to pop?
Next week will tell before TU on 8 June.

[p1nkfish] 23/5/2020 23:55

As yet we also have no idea how this will morph into fully interactive immersive media. There's still a division between on demand video entertainment and gaming. The gap will close and the two merge with massive new opportunities opening. Mind boggling.

[largemerlot] 23/5/2020 22:51

This is a multi billion pound company in the making.
Brabben has always been a bit of a visionary - but the point is we are now seeing a vision of the future being transferred in to clear execution which is leading to shareholder returns.
A clear inflection point here now - it’s great stuff.

[adamb1978] 23/5/2020 22:29

Pinkfish

Yes, I have more or less the same figures as you, and 32p EPS.

I'm now up 6x since buying 3 years ago....just annoying that I didnt buy more and sold a third around £10!!

Still, not planning to sell this for at least couple years

[fledgling1nvestor] 21/5/2020 07:54

"Materially ahead is usually code for at least a 10% beat to give profits of £14.6m."



Sounds plausible.

[p1nkfish] 20/5/2020 19:57

Any guess what materially ahead equates to?

My guess is £77M rev and £15M op profit.

Some holders may have already 10 bagged this.

[cottlet] 20/5/2020 17:48

I have met a big cheese in this company and he is the Mutts......this will ...IMHO go far...right place, rigfht time right opportunity...

[ck1111] 20/5/2020 17:25

Good to hear from you, your posts have always been very helpful to me!I also reduced my holding slightly as it has been rising but continue to hold the rest long term.

[mark4231] 20/5/2020 17:12

Don't worry, I'm here, all OK, just reading and not posting much!

I do like an FDEV update, be it F1 games, Games Workshop tie up or a trading update. :-)

Over time, I have sold some of my holding to take advantage of my CGT allowances and that FDEV keeps on becoming far too high a percentage of my portfolio. I still continue to hold over 60% of my original holding and intend on continuing to hold as I think the future for FDEV is better than ever.

[ck1111] 20/5/2020 16:13

Great RNS and nice to see share price up again.Haven't seen Mark4231 here recently, hope you ok.

[endion] 20/5/2020 12:02

Something to keep an eye on for the future of F1 esports considering the Fdev tie in:

hxxps://esports-news.co.uk/2020/03/23/gfinity-formula-1-esports-virtual-grand-prix-series/

[p1nkfish] 20/5/2020 11:56

No sell-out. Needs to develop in UK, UK owned and show full potential.

[adamb1978] 20/5/2020 10:45

Sogoesit

Yes, you might be right about the multiple heading north of 25x. I think if FDEV can demonstrate that the earnings are somewhat recurring/repeatable rather than lumpy (ie when they have the greater number of titles selling each year) then agree it could move a lot higher.

I also wouldnt be surprised if they get taken out at some point

Adam

[fledgling1nvestor] 20/5/2020 10:37

Cheers for posting the full SteamSpy estimates llekov789, I'm too cheap to support on Patreon. ;)

We can't really compare Elite Dangerous and Jurassic World Evolution as they're also on consoles and ED also sold hundreds of thousands of units before Steam. However it seems SteamSpy is well off-kilter with Planet Coaster given this trading update reveals they passed 2.5m units in January 2020 and it's currently Steam only.

Perhaps someone should alert Sergey Galyonkin to this trading update?

[alphabeta4] 20/5/2020 10:37

On a separate note nice that only have to wait to 8/6 and get to know just how much the material beat was!

Peel also upgraded target price £15 to £20.73.

[alphabeta4] 20/5/2020 10:36

Endion that's because the above are just steam sales, JWE has sold more on console than PCs.

[endion] 20/5/2020 10:28

Interesting that JWE is out by a factor of more than 100%.

Also, JWE sales seem to have been very robust! 3m units sold in about 2 years. Can't complain with that.

[llekov789] 20/5/2020 10:12

Elite Dangerous Apr 2, 2015 $29.99 1,674,000
Planet Coaster Nov 17, 2016 $44.99 1,463,000
Jurassic World Evolution $44.99 1,249,000
Planet Zoo Nov 5, 2019 $44.99 1,042,000

steamspy

[sogoesit] 20/5/2020 09:54

AdamB1978, post 5919:
An EPS of 100p in 2-3 years is a growth rate of 30-50% pa from the current position.
That looks a reasonable projection in my view and the £25-£30 share price looks like you're willing to pay a PEG <= 1 for the share in 2-3 years time.

However, it is also conservative on the multiple that investors might pay for a demonstrable growth stock. The current PE is over 35 and it wouldn't surprise me to see a PEG>1, say upto 1.5.
On the conservative view that the EPS growth rate were to be 30% pa that would imply investors would pay upto 45x your 100p.
(A change in multiple provides significant gearing, expansion or contraction, giving substantial upside, in good times, and downside, in bearish times. Averaging these multiples can lead to deception of the risk and reward).

Over the last few weeks the trailing EPS has changed from 31 to 40 times.

AIMV

[endion] 20/5/2020 09:25

Congrats all, great RNS today. I think I said April for 1m Planet Zoo units sold, so not far off! There aren't many companies that can thrive in a pandemic.

[adamb1978] 20/5/2020 09:18

Agree scooper!! I'm planning to do the same; if we get a broader market sell-off, then I'm planning to use that to top-up. As I've said before, I think EPS will be over 100p within 2-3 years and the share price in the 2500-3000p range comfortably.

[scooper72] 20/5/2020 09:00

Just wish I had bought more and taken less profits over last couple of years. Planning to hold and by when and if it drops back - that way at least not likely to feel the same way next time is jumps up. This company and the industry it is involved in both have good long term prospects