Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[pepsiman1] 08/5/2020 13:29

Don't forget Codemasters.

[scooper72] 08/5/2020 13:04

Team 17 is there too. Hope people are going to feel like buying new consoles - probably one of the things they can spend on if not flying or holidaying abroad

[fledgling1nvestor] 08/5/2020 11:39

Was hoping we'd see something in last night's Inside Xbox briefing discussing third party launch titles for Xbox Series X but the only nugget we got was in the list of developers working on bringing games to the platform.




First from the left on line 3 of the initial slide.

[endion] 06/5/2020 09:52

Gamers are a habit forming bunch... once hooked, they generally stay that way :p

[endion] 04/5/2020 18:23

Fdev is something of a safe haven compared to most stocks out there. Granted the focus is on the pharma stocks, but finding companies that can continue to grow and are relatively safe in this pandemic is quite rare, fdev is one of those stocks.

[fledgling1nvestor] 04/5/2020 17:24

Elite Dangerous Beta 2 starts next Monday, runs for 2 weeks.

[ck1111] 04/5/2020 17:15

Adam, I agree it seems the market is looking longer term which is good. I also think for some it may be the right stock at the right time (ref Covid impact).

Previously there have been several positive RNSs (in my view) which didnt make much difference to the markets so I was pleased with the reaction to this one. I am also long and have always thought £30 share price a rough target which would make FDEV similar in size to Paradox. But if & when we get there I will review based on the outlook.

[adamb1978] 04/5/2020 14:17

Yank:

As I posted on the SHA thread:


Personally I dont have a problem with those share sales at FDEV. Braben sold c.10% of his holding and I think has something like £200m of shares remaining. I don't begrudge him taking £15m off the table at all given the wealth which he has created for people!! He also committed to another year lock-in.

I dont know enough about Gammon but his stake was worth £7m and he sold c.20%-25% of this position. A bio for him is below - he doesnt sound like he's short of a few quid but at £7m its perfectly feasible that it got to a double-digit % of his portfolio justifying some trimming

hxxps://www.raeng.org.uk/about-us/the-fellowship/new-fellows-2017/honorary-fellows/david-gammon

From FDEV trading perspective, given the games in the hopper I can see EPS getting to 100p-130p in the next 2-3 years. Valuing it on sales, EBITDA and PE multiples, I think it can get to £25 - £30 share price on a 2-3 year basis so am a happy holder. I've lost (or not gained!) a lot of money by not running winners and don't intend to do that here. Its perfectly possible that it retraces back in the meantime, in which case I'd be happy to top-up

[yankhanson] 04/5/2020 13:04

Not surprised to see Chairman Gammon selling FDEV after CEO Braben sold so many... but a bit surprised to see before that FDEV non-exec from Tencent, James Mitchell, selling too, according to marketbeat. Any more info on this?

[p1nkfish] 04/5/2020 12:20

No way to know what else might be announced also.

[sogoesit] 04/5/2020 10:29

Yes, fledgeling, I think that's a distinct possibility.
I thought the latest guidance was cautious so there may well be a surprise to the upside for this year. After all, lockdown has not been terminated and dithering on a decision may mean further upside for sales on this basis alone.

My accumulation was predicated on getting to £18 but if a 20% overshoot in sales occurs above guidance that would bring £20-£22 within reach quite soon.
AIMV

[fledgling1nvestor] 04/5/2020 09:53

I'm not so sure FY21 will be that flat given they've got Planet Coaster: Console Edition, Elite Dangerous' expansion, two third party games* plus the inevitible DLC and residual income from their pre-existing games.

I expect Planet Coaster's upcoming parallel to the Steam Workshop will also enable the PlanCo games to be sold on other ecosystems such as the long expected WeGame (Tencent's game platform in China) launch. I've also long suspected they've been working on Chinese localisation for Elite Dangerous in preparation for a WeGame rollout for all their games.

Investors are a fickle bunch though, the price will no doubt go up, down and sideways within the next year and daytraders will sell and buy it back many times in that duration.

* We don't however know the quality of these games. I personally expect them to be more indie like the kind of thing Team 17 have published in recent years.

[adamb1978] 04/5/2020 09:46

To a certain extent, the market has managed to look beyond FY20 for FDEV, which surprised me a little, and I think there's enough core holders etc that will mean it does so from here. I think this will be £30 per share in 2-3 years so happy to hold and top-up even more if the market takes it backwards over the next year or so

[p1nkfish] 04/5/2020 09:16

Do you feel lucky? If so trade it and buy back lower. I'm neither lucky enough nor clever enough to be able to do that here so it's a hold and wait for another 3 years for me. A keeper. GLA. Dyor.

[sogoesit] 04/5/2020 08:26

I'm just wondering if the old highs will be taken out.
Having acted on the break-out from the neck-line I'm not sure but would be pleasantly surprised.
The key is, will the market look beyond FY2021 as FY2021 is basically flat on EPS from FY2020?

[sogoesit] 01/5/2020 11:20

An understatement ... ;-))

[suffersnofools] 01/5/2020 09:51

Nice update

[endion] 01/5/2020 09:33

Great update today! Significant growth ahead now for fdev in the coming years.

It will be very interesting to see them take on an RTS game. Quite outside the remit of all their games so far. RTS generally has a fairly standard formula, so it shouldn't be all that hard to make a good game, however I would hope that fdev might look to do something a bit more creative with that forumla, as RTS's can otherwise just seem like a re-skin of a previous game.

[eggy toast] 01/5/2020 09:25

Oh..and by the way, these guys have just signed a deal with Games Workshop to work on Warhammer no less...