Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mark4231] 29/11/2019 13:51

Then again on YouTube subscribers PZ is a third of JWE for subscribers. Pick your statistic.

I'm sticking with my January prediction for 1m sales but hope you're right and that it is earlier. :-)

[ck1111] 29/11/2019 13:04

Another measure is the size of the PZ Reddit compared to JWE. They are now almost the same. This compares with the JWE / PZ reviews ratio. In a way I'll be surprised if we don't get an RNS next week!

[mark4231] 29/11/2019 11:57

Fledgling1nvestor, quite possible. In 3.5 weeks PZ has reached the same number of Steam reviews that JWE took over 8 months to reach - using GameVizz - by which time FDEV had announced 2m JWE sales, roughly 50% of which would have been on PC. However, we do have to be a little careful that the Steam stats aren't necessarily representative of what is happening. An example is that the number of current players shown on steamdb. For JWE, on the day of launch, it was about 60K players. For PZ it was about 40K players. However, subsequently FDEV has told us that PZ "achieved a day one PC launch record for Frontier". So the player numbers on day one didn't accurately represent the number of sales - although in this case it seems to way underestimate the PZ sales. Another note is that the number of Steam reviews has been skewed over the last few days by people giving reviews due to the Steam Awards. However, the JWE numbers have also benefited from that, not only that but also in last year's Steam Awards.

The only thing I'm definite on is that PZ is selling very well and has good momentum behind it (i.e. I don't expect sales to fall off as quickly as JWE). How well, we'll have to wait for FDEV to tell us - hopefully sooner rather than later. :-)

[fledgling1nvestor] 29/11/2019 11:26

Been looking in to the using review numbers to estimate owners people have been mentioning on here and a quick Google search brings up a Gamasutra article from last year which puts their average at 77 × [review count] and median at 82 × [review count].

hxxps://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/JakeBirkett/20180504/317366/Using_Steam_reviews_to_estimate_sales.php

The current review count as I type this is 12,147 so using those values:

77 × 12,147 = 935,319
82 × 12,147 = 996,054

Obviously we don't know how closely Planet Zoo tracks to Gamasutra's estimation range but if it's close it's entirely possible we may see an RNS update stating "1m units sold within 4 weeks of release" next week.

Exciting times, such a scenario would exceed Jurassic World Evolution's launch, and without the benefit of a triple platform release too.

What are your thoughts?

Are you using a different multiplier than Gamasutra hence come up with a different estimation?

Interested to hear your input.

[fledgling1nvestor] 28/11/2019 10:11

Jurassic World Evolution on Xbox Games with Gold (base game free to Xbox Gold subscribers) December 16th - January 15th.

Could be a smart move. It comes just 6 days after their "Return to Jurassic Park" DLC goes live and this will increase their potential customer base for DLC on that platform substantially.

[nimbo1] 27/11/2019 20:36

you really are the pits.

[yankhans0n] 27/11/2019 08:10

To clarify "dodgy-looking tax services company" doesn't mean dodgy at all, or illegal, or even bad practice. It's not even a statement with any actual fact, so please ignore.

[endion] 27/11/2019 07:45

Which they were served with.

[hawaly] 27/11/2019 07:31

The stand out extract....

"The website said its policy was not to police bulletin boards and it did not reveal user identities unless served with a court order."

Far too busy to read nine year old irrelevance.

[endion] 27/11/2019 07:19

Did you read about the advfn users whose identities were forced to be revealed after posting libellous content against Nighthawk? Makes for an interesting read. The courts ruled that posts on advfn Can be found to be libellous, and will force the site to reveal users identities in such cases.

independent.co.uk/news/business/news/nighthawk-threatens-to-sue-libellous-internet-critics-2048046.html

[largemerlot] 26/11/2019 19:24

This is a positive no doubt and is clearly down to institutional demand.

[fledgling1nvestor] 26/11/2019 19:16

It's not like the shares were just dumped on the open market. Any trades that took place as part of the sale were off book. They clearly had buyers lined up for the entire 1.25m shares.

It should really inspire confidence, not dread that they can sell £15m worth of shares at the current price point so effortlessly.

Also these were not director shares, they were the private holdings of David Braben's wife.

[endion] 26/11/2019 18:10

Umm... the share price is lower now than when they announced the roadmap. The RNS states "in response to investor demand". So it could be that a buyer showed interest after the recent success of Planet Zoo and the roadmap being released. Either way, the 1.25 million being sold today did not impact the share price at all.

[mbh1] 26/11/2019 17:35

They put a trading update and a roadmap out to increase the share price before selling 1.25m shares. What a farce.

[mark4231] 22/11/2019 14:24

hxxps://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/berenberg-raises-target-price-on-frontier-developments--7131359.html

[endion] 21/11/2019 20:59

Planet Zoo has been nominated by thr Global Games Awards for "Best PC Exclusive" and "Best management".

twitter.com/PlanetZooGame/status/1197598313924759554?s=19

[endion] 21/11/2019 08:56

Few more details about JWE DLC:

The vehicles will now be destructible. When staff enter habitats to replace feeders etc there is a chance the dinos will attack them if they arent careful. Its not clear if staff themselves can be hurt of killed yet though. Regardless it is a really cool feature that they originally said wouldnt be a part of the game.

Two other features they said wouldnt be in game are also making a debut, small dinos (Compies) and flying dinos!

The original actors will reprise their characters of Alan Grant, Ellie Satter and Ian Malcom in a new 7 part campaign set between Jurassic Park and Jurassic Park 2.

There are now also all the aesthetics from the original franchise too ie. Buildings, vehicle and dino skins etc.

[ck1111] 20/11/2019 12:04

Mark, I agree it is good :) My guess is around 700-750k at the moment. All my opinion/estimate.

[mark4231] 20/11/2019 11:23

Brain dump...

Unfortunately, Steam Spy isn't very accurate. Planet Coaster shows "1,000,000 .. 2,000,000" whereas we know that last January Planet Coaster reached the 2000000 mark and so is surely well above that now. At least that would mean an upside to "500,000 .. 1,000,000" though. :-)

2 weeks after release the number of Steam Reviews for Planet Zoo is now above 9000. It took JWE over 3 months to reach that point.

Different methods of guesstimating the number of Planet Zoo sales so far give different numbers, but regardless they are all good imho.

Planet Zoo has remained (just about!) in the top 10 Steam Global Top Sellers consistently since launch. Will be interesting to see how long that continues. The new Star Wars game has usurped it at the top. If only FDEV had a Star Wars game. The Steam Black Friday sale is rumoured to start next Tuesday so no doubt Planet Zoo will disappear down the charts for a while then.

[pepsiman1] 20/11/2019 07:54

Steam spy now estimates "500,000 .. 1,000,000 owners" for Planet Zoo.

[sogoesit] 20/11/2019 05:49

The American naysayer finally réalisés that games are a “complete fantasy”! Lol.
With insight like that why wonder that delusion has pervaded negative commentary for so long?
FILTERED.

[yankhanson] 19/11/2019 02:15

endion "From the wording of the RNS the new major release of 2021 is the Elite re-write."

Elite re-write is complete fantasy.

The only specifics in FDEV's trading update are "This will be characterised by significant new features to appeal to existing commanders, whilst being specifically designed to be a compelling, attractive and welcoming entry point for new players." which is exactly what they said about the previous (very poorly received) update.

FDEV have never suggested there's an ED rewrite in the works and the latest accounts shows ED earnings are way too low to fund or justify such a project.

[yankhanson] 19/11/2019 02:13

mbh1 "There's been no removal of a game release from FDev."

The FY21 new game release has disappeared from the forecast of FDEV's broker.

And it's missing from FDEV's trading update of a week ago.

How is that not a removal?

[ck1111] 15/11/2019 21:50

Mark4231, well I'll go December and I'm sure you wont mind if I win :)

Another comparison is Reddit subscribers. PZ is at 23k, it has risen very quickly since release. JWE is at 27.5k, PC at 54k.

I also think there are a lot more YouTube hits. I keep seeing new names appearing getting 100k-1M hits in no time (zbing.z, TMFaisal, Bay Riffer etc).