Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[fledgling1nvestor] 16/6/2020 14:43

"Holiday" is an American term the gaming industry as a whole seems to have adopted. It typically refers to the month between Thanksgiving (4th Thursday in November) and Christmas.

In terms of this stock it means we're unlikely to see any revenues for the release posted in the first half of FY21. Most likely the launch will be early to mid December.

[shanklin] 16/6/2020 14:40

Strange then that's is a non-RNS. Surely that would be financially significant.

[mark4231] 16/6/2020 14:38

Off the top of my head, is that the release was expected during the summer but Holiday 2020 means Christmas I think so there is a small delay. What is new is that the game is also going to be launched for the next generation consoles as well as the existing consoles. :-)

[shanklin] 16/6/2020 14:23

WTF is Holiday 2020?

Surely FDEV can be a bit more precise than this. Can't see the need for an intra-day RNS when we already knew from the TS that it would be released fairly soon.

[adamb1978] 16/6/2020 14:15

Intra-day announcement? Had this leaked somewhere?

[sogoesit] 15/6/2020 11:41

The main downside risks to this stock, all47fish, as I see it (and I suffered one of them in 2018) are, firstly, the lumpiness of revenue/earnings due to release schedule of games and the profile of those earnings from release (high) to tail-off and, secondly, the popularity (sales generation and adherence/addiction) to a particular release.
Since 2018 management have somewhat smoothed out the release schedule so that we get one major release per year and there is now the "Frontier Publishing Initiative" where the company partners with third party games IP to develeop and release their games. A long term view is needed for this stock therefore (3-5 years minimum imv if you mistime an entry).
(We haven't seen any product release of this latter initiative to date so this is still to be judged by the market).

The second risk is inherent in any media company so that's "in the price" until a release either booms or busts but the track record of releases to date suggests that they perform very well and they are in tune with each of their "niche" games markets. More so that, recent releases appear to gain traction and/or are actively supported/promoted by the company to create and advance a concept of games' eco-systems with constant output of enhancements through a longer, higher, revenue profile than an initial boom followed by a big tail-off.
[I personally think that this kind of eco-system has future upside to being hived-off, or sold, as separate franchising but that is pure speculation on my part (consider the Peppa Pig analogy)].
The first risk can be offset by diversification of course.

(I don't address your macro-economic concerns as in a world of QE, QQE and QQQE I'm not sure what a recession is, or whether one is knowable, even if allowable by central banks. The ultimate macro-risk imv is inflation and deserves other market instruments for protection).

As a note: the financial year-end is 31 May making the financial year dislocated from release dates and speculation and knowledge about financial performance for relevant releases. It can be 18 months or so before performance of a release shows up in results unless the company updates regularly (something it has adressed during CV19).

AIMV (Please don't regard this as qualifying for "insight" that you called for).

[scooper72] 14/6/2020 23:42

Gaming companies have done well over the last few months despite the plunge markets have taken in March. Quite possible this could drop back down 10 or 20 percent but personally I would look at those pull backs as buying opportunities for the long term.

[ali47fish] 14/6/2020 21:25

i am new here and have read about this company- anyone with insight please comment on the oulook and is the recession likely to dampen the share price going forward

[ck1111] 13/6/2020 23:01

Elite Dangerous has set new All Time High for concurrent players on Steam

hxxps://www.reddit.com/r/EliteDangerous/comments/h8d8kb/record_number_of_cmdrs_playing_setting_a_new_all/

[ck1111] 12/6/2020 16:54

Amati interview with David Braben

[nw99] 12/6/2020 08:01

New ps5 amazing

[from8to800] 11/6/2020 16:19

Someone keen on shedding some risk today. Was stopped out myself. Waiting for this to reset and might buy again.

[thewheeliedealer] 08/6/2020 21:38

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a Twin Petes Investing Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion covers FDEV. We also chatted about the current situation in the Markets and covered loads of Stocks and as always a fair bit of general Portfolio Management educational stuff. Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 24) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[nimbo1] 08/6/2020 13:16

I reckon you could see the price here anywhere from 12-30 depending on sector and market sentiment.

In about 2 years though will be firing on all cylinders, with a significant back catalogue providing annuity revenue and the publishing arm providing plenty of upside while they work on their internal AAA games.

I've been buying back the few I sold from last week - potential way higher now for the business than the last time it was at these price levels around JWE release.

[doc60] 08/6/2020 10:35

Me too, managed to average down a bit 😊

[nw99] 08/6/2020 09:11

Added here

[adamb1978] 08/6/2020 08:19

Another good trading update, and the 5-6 games per year in a couple years time is fantastic news. Would mean that their results becomes increasingly less lumpy!

Looking at forecasts, I still think that EPS in FY23 will likely be north of 100p, perhaps 110p-120p so a share price north of where we are today is justifiable given the growth.

Looking at comps, FDEV is trading in-line with them at the moment, though with better growth than the average. Therefore I'll continue to hold

[nw99] 08/6/2020 07:21

Lots amazing

[pepsiman1] 08/6/2020 07:21

"Five or six third party game releases per year are expected from FY23 onward"

How many third parties are they working with?

[nw99] 08/6/2020 07:14

Good results as expected . Plenty in the pipeline

[eelanguilla] 03/6/2020 19:42

if its good will get a big following - its direct competitor on this particular expansion will be star citizen which has been in development for many years. This is a game while the other is still in beta but quite stunning. Given the track record and history of this game as well as the people who make it, it isn't going to flop. How that transfers into numbers I don't know but a groundbreaking game that has a following could give further dlc opportunities as well as future expansions (think was meant to be 5 from the start). It could run and run - as payable dlc opportunities which I think is relatively untapped so far.

[mark4231] 03/6/2020 16:52

If it gets 3.5m sales that would be fantastic!

Don't forget that as well as existing players buying the DLC there'll be new players buying the base game+DLC, attracted by the DLC's new gameplay.

[shanklin] 03/6/2020 16:49

So that limits it to 3.5m sales :-(

[shanklin] 03/6/2020 16:47

Okay, as a non-gamer I will stand corrected.