Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[aishah] 12/9/2023 11:56

Anyone here attend the Mello BASH? How did FDEV fair?

[melloteam] 07/9/2023 09:54

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that Frontier Developments will be discussed on the Mello BASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell, Hold) with a panel of analysts and professional investors during the MelloMonday webinar at 5pm on Monday 11th September 2023.

Team Internet will also be presenting.

There will be over 500 investors attending and these are very popular shows with company presentations, fund manager and investor interviews, and panel sessions.

Tickets are still available and if you would like one at half price then enter the code MMTADVFN50.

For more information, click here:

Mello Events have many events coming up over the next few months, check them out here:

You can get 70% off their Oct- Nov 2023, giving you access to all events until the end of October (at least 9), as well as the archive events and exclusive partner discounts! Use code NOVAP70

[yankhanson] 31/8/2023 23:35

That Warhammer game price blunder comes from FDEV mistaking their game for a rich deep AAA-grade RTS. The recent beta test shows is in fact just a mediocre console-style squad battler. Selling it as a grande RTS is guaranteed to trigger hardcore RTS fans to review-bomb the PC version into the dirt, killing interest from casual players who might genuinely have liked it.

FDEV made the game's big reveal at Gamescom last week, spread by press and streamers. Pre-orders on Steam promptly fell through the floor. Reactions so far on the forums are mostly "Will never buy it" or "Might buy when it is reduced to $20".

It could sell slightly better on consoles - provided it is a lot less buggy than FDEV's usual.

[lemonade311] 31/8/2023 21:46

Look at the warhammer game by FDEV on youtube that is about to come out.

The price is $60+ and basically a tower defence game.

This company genuinely cannot stop destroying shareholder value.

There's no floor on the share price until management is gone.

[cirlbunting1] 30/8/2023 23:00

Just wonder if Savvy Games Group has this on their watchlist.

[yankhanson] 30/8/2023 19:08

74tom, more transparency?? Shudder. The board's current transparency shows us company has "great portfolio", "world class team", "exciting pipeline of future releases" etc. etc. The problem being this is all transparently delusional.

Re your "must significantly reduce costs", yes definitely. But the board is doing the opposite. Just recently spent £11m buying a mere 20 new employees - pushing the finances to a loss. And is saying it expanding the staff even further.

This board has got to go. All of them.

[mortal1ty] 30/8/2023 14:53

The other serious issue this faces... is most of the institutional holders are long-only growth investors who probably brought this when the company was a £500m+ market-cap. Suppose they brought 1.5% for their fund.

The position would be 0.5% in their fund now, and probably too small for their mandate, and definitely not a growth stock.

They can dump that 0.5% without impacting performance too much. Its an illiquid share. Will take a while but they are pretty price insensitive.

[p1nkfish] 30/8/2023 11:35

This was once Brabens baby.
Now looks like a case of child neglect.
Have they grown bored or just unable to drive this company well?
Something is missing.

[mortal1ty] 30/8/2023 09:41

I too spend time thinking how 'cheap' could Frontier get. The market can get pretty irrational at time. Only recently TinyBuild was trading below net-cash (this is a huge basket-case). Devolver Digital never got that cheap, but has a market-cap of £82m with £50m cash, and £100m sales (before the last downgrade). So that would put it on 0.3x sales.

Frontier I believe is a much better business than these two. However, if you strip out the £30m cash, it is a £90m enterprise value. If you think sales are going to come in below estimates, that puts it on c. 1x sales.

Another disappointment, and I could see this trading on 0.5x sales. Assuming cash drops to £20m, and sales are £90m... that would put it on £65m market-cap (which would be the lowest I could see it going). That would be about £1.60.

Given a turnaround seems a way off... I am inclined to wait to see if I can't get it closer to this before I dive back in.

[74tom] 30/8/2023 08:48

The bigger problem for gaming companies is capitalised development spend, it's a critical part of the picture but gets seemingly arbitrary accounting treatment (based on the 4 UK listed entities).

FDEV is sinking like a stone, they need to provide far more transparency on their medium term strategy for new games & likely significantly reduce costs. Certainly interesting to watch from the sidelines.

[p1nkfish] 29/8/2023 19:45

Full respect Cb1.

[cirlbunting1] 29/8/2023 19:39

Hello. Just providing figures of what comparable companies have gone for.

Both sales and EBITDA are widely used exit and entry multiples for P/E/investment banking firms.

Now, what you could have said was, "The multiples in which the aforementioned companies were valued at were in a bull cycle, we are currently in the bear cycle, so they hold less weight and are incomparable given current market conditions". In which I would have responded, "valid & fair point. However, given I stressed that I am a long-term holder - I hope those values will somewhat reappear as the economic cycle changes (eventually)".

As opposed to you saying "Using this to judge FDEV value is frankly utterly insane." There are ways to rebuttal sir.

[yankhanson] 29/8/2023 19:22

Cirlbunting, you know FDEV's EDITDA figure is at the discretion of the board, right? The higher the board choose to put it, the more they personally earn in profit-related bonuses. Using this to judge FDEV value is frankly utterly insane.

[yankhanson] 29/8/2023 19:16

Sbb1x, yeah. There's a X0,000 sale just before close every day. Sometimes two. It makes sense as a tactic for the bank to dispose of as much of their 7m shares as they can, before this drives the share price down to 1p. Which will be reached in about 8 weeks at the current rate.

[sbb1x] 29/8/2023 11:07

Still had 6.91% on that RNS.

[cirlbunting1] 29/8/2023 08:40

Bought back in, but this time I'll be long term holding.

Believe that if SUMO sold for ~13.2x revenue & 690x EBITDA, while CDM sold for ~11.8x revenue & ~56.7 EBITDA then there's some serious upside scope me thinks.

[yankhanson] 25/8/2023 16:59

Its the bank. See last week's RNS.

[sbb1x] 25/8/2023 16:33

Got a large seller

[yankhanson] 23/8/2023 17:17

FDEV announces date and prices for its next game release. hxxps://www.gamespress.com/Warhammer-Age-of-Sigmar-Realms-of-Ruin-is-summoned-from-the-Realmgate-

[thomstar] 23/8/2023 16:52

Sold earlier today