Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mortal1ty] 05/4/2023 08:48

I'm not so concerned about capitalisation of r&d and cash flow. The business is investing for growth. The problem is growth isn't there due to poor title performance.

[adamb1978] 27/3/2023 12:37

re the above comment about churn in the investor base, and also one just before about the tough multiple:

I'd previously held FDEV from about 300p right up to 3000p and then annoyingly back down to about 1500p before exiting. The reason for selling is that I became increasing uncomfortable with the valuation when you adjust for capitalised R&D. On the way up, it was really valued on a revenue multiple and predicated on very quick growth.

Once you start to look at earnings (or cash) and things tend to be once growth stalls, and also note the difference between the amortisation of capitalised R&D going through the P&L compared to the cash spent on capitalised R&D, the valuation looks a lot more challening.

If the investor base does indeed churn as suggested above from growth investors to more value oriented investors, this factor will be looked at more closely

[fledgling1nvestor] 27/3/2023 12:11

Nice to see they're also rolling Stranded: Alien Dawn out on consoles too, there was no indication that was in the pipeline during Early Access.

The other Foundry title, The Great War: Western Front from Petrogylph Games is also starting it's 3 days of (pre-order based) early access today with the full release on Thursday.

Both games are from well known devs with established fanbases for their previous work. It's going to be interesting to see how they perform.

[hamhamham1] 27/3/2023 11:12

Looks a goody....

[scepticalinvestor] 17/2/2023 09:00

WELL DONE SON. TOMPRRPW YOU CAM BUY MORE AT 1P?

[hamhamham1] 10/2/2023 06:53

Bought some more here yesterday... GLA.
1500p target.

[fledgling1nvestor] 07/2/2023 19:37

"Did I read that right?? FDEV's largest institutional investor just dumped a large chunk of its holding??"

That's what the notification seems to imply but according to



They held 2.3m shares (5.8%) at the end of 2022. They now hold over 3m shares (7.72%) so perhaps they overbought and sold some back in quick succession and we're only seeing the reduction notification.

[mortal1ty] 07/2/2023 10:03

Annoyingly the volume since the major warning has only been c. 20% of shares. I think we need another 20% to turn over before we can see this changing of the guard process has finished.

[mortal1ty] 07/2/2023 10:02

We want the large institutions to change over.

Investors who bought into this over the past 5 years are growth investors, probably investing in a market-cap range much higher than frontier developments is now. Frontier is probably a small part of their portfolio and they want it out. It doesn't fit their mandate.

Ideally this will churn into value investors, and PMs who buy into a restructuring / recovery story. The quicker this process happens the better.

[p1nkfish] 06/2/2023 19:48

Verstappen has signed a deal with EA wrt F1.

[yankhanson] 06/2/2023 17:58

Did I read that right?? FDEV's largest institutional investor just dumped a large chunk of its holding??

[mortal1ty] 06/2/2023 16:26

I'm in this on a 2 year view. £190m market-cap with £40m cash. £100m sales. At 10% EBIT margin, that is 15x EBIT. I think we are nearing trough valuation multiple, and after all the bad news, probably trough earnings. Will be a slow build from here though.

[fledgling1nvestor] 03/2/2023 12:30

@YankHanson

"Obvious. Start by buying out one of larger investors - such as Tencent, whose 9% is now heavily underwater."

Ahh yes, they're sure to sell out at less than they paid for them.

"Why do you want to buy our shares?"

"No particular reason"

"Nah, you're ok. You're clearly trying to gain 30% to initiate a takeover bid. We'll hold our shares and wait for you to inflate the price thanks."

No large holder is going to cash out unless the early offer to buy their shares is substantially better than the all time high because they know the price will jump massively in anticipation of an acquisition bid.

Hype drives the price, not results.I mean you only have to look at Tesla for the perfect example of that. It's current price is around $190 with a 52 P/E ratio. It's not worth that money now, it most definitely wasn't at > $400 per share. The market cap of that company defies logic. It's price is based upon the cult of personality. Not the actual results or future prospects.

Anyone looking to buy 30% of the shares in FDEV would need to buy the majority off the general public who hold a little under 40% of the available shares and most of them aren't even on the order books. It would be a massively challenging thing to do. To do so quietly to prevent a major bump in prices, nigh on impossible.

[yankhanson] 02/2/2023 21:24

That FDEV "live" broadcast on Steam right now. It's fake. A short pre-recorded clip on loop play. Jeez.

[mortal1ty] 02/2/2023 21:20

Frontier publishing isn't in the share price anymore. They already basically said they are canning it.

[jfbonner] 02/2/2023 21:02

Yank… it’s been nearly 10 years now since you had a problem with Elite not being offline. The stock has tanked, although I still believe in the company. What is it you actually want?! Will you still be here posting even if fdev goes bust?!

[yankhanson] 02/2/2023 20:33

Watch FDEV on live broadcast now, try to talk up the game. Just embarrassing.

hxxps://store.steampowered.com/app/1345890/Deliver_Us_Mars/

[yankhanson] 02/2/2023 20:31

Looks like FDEV's latest game is another flop. Deliver Us Mars out today on Steam, review score below average and dropping.

FDEV must have seen this coming. One of the reasons it canned Foundry releases for next year.

[jw330] 02/2/2023 08:36

im more interested in their collab with warhammer tbh. I think its a cheaper way to buy into that franchise compared to buying GAW directly. If they can have a long successful partnership then these shares are cheap as chips atm

[danmart2] 01/2/2023 11:38

Planet zoo is not a big earner.

They need to focus their output

[mortal1ty] 01/2/2023 11:33

I'm in for a small amount. £4 was my target price, but not sure its getting there. 20% of shares have changed hands since the disaster warning. Thats quite a bit chance for people to get out if they wanted to.

If it gets to £4 will back up the truck and load up.