Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 08:04

Ref elite player numbers that’s a lot of people to sell this years dlc to

[endion] 15/1/2019 07:59

Ooooo, thats interesting. I wonder if we will hear anything from the company.

[mad foetus] 15/1/2019 07:58

Liberum had a big note ready to go, reiterating an £18 target but also saying they expect 2 new games a year from FY2021 onwards, which is news to me

[endion] 15/1/2019 07:47

Im very happy with that update too! Over 2 million in sales in 7 months, already out stripped broker forecasts. I would hazard a guess of 2.75 - 3m unit sales for the year for JWE.

We also got a nice insight into Elite Expansion unit sales. Base game sales of over 3m, with expansion 4.3, so horizon salea were circa 1.3m. Thats just over a third of the player base buying the expansion, which is not too shabby either! Will come back to these numbers later and attempt some calculations for the year.

If this doesnt give the share price a whack then aim is broken!

[phowdo] 15/1/2019 07:42

Personally still waiting on 4th franchise reveal.

[mark4231] 15/1/2019 07:40

My personal estimate, that I had, was 55 million with an optimistic estimate of 60 million. To see 64, I'm grinning from ear to ear. :-)

[sogoesit] 15/1/2019 07:34

In my view it “deserves̶1; about £25 at 20x forward but, as anthony points out, in the current market forward growth seems to be discounted by 50% so I would set a near term target of £12 or so.

[anthony16731] 15/1/2019 07:26

Closer to 15 per share IMO is fair value in this present market. Once the new franchise is known then new highs.

[sogoesit] 15/1/2019 07:24

Ultimately, based on “legacy” releases, there is an investment case for long term continued stability in revenue once a substantial portfolio is built.
I think that is the bigger prize but will take a few more years yet.
We are still at the beginning of this story imv.

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 07:20

Im v happy with this and passing 2 mil JWE sales is already above analyst forecasts - some of that will be off the christmas sales price where JWE sold well at the discounted level.

Costs for the full year shouldn’t exceed 40 mil. So does this deserve 10x earnings I.e 400 mil market cap or 20x 800 mil market cap. Simple view and who knows.

Also got to factor in game release cycles (future) don’t always fall within ideal financial timeframes parameters so growth isn’t smooth.

Got to look appealing to institutional investors...

FDEV now have a player base of 7 million - a nice platform for future releases and the long term compounding story which is being created here.

[sogoesit] 15/1/2019 07:15

Yes, exceeding the mid-point guidance means £81m plus. For FY19.
Not shabby!!

[anthony16731] 15/1/2019 07:11

Very happy with this. Excellent results (record at ~£64m). Clear forward guidance (£75-£88) projecting mid+ & timeline for next franchise.

[mark4231] 14/1/2019 16:03

It looks like the expedition is getting Elite Dangerous some good publicity, despite server problems yesterday. Great to see the support that FDEV are giving it even though it is a player organised expedition.

[endion] 14/1/2019 15:32

Distant worlds 2, an expedition in game in Elite, has begun with over 10,000 players joining forces to travel for over 8 months across the galaxy.

[simonshare] 12/1/2019 10:01

Many thanks for explaining that.

[endion] 11/1/2019 22:10

The UT trade can happen during any of the auctions that occur during the day, which happen at 9, 11, 2, and 4.30. A price is set for the auction, and orders on the bid and ask are matched up at that price, and essentially cancel eachother out. It is neither a sell nor a buy, simply the price at which shares exchange hands during the auction. The UT can be manipulated down or up by someone offering a price different to the spread, if that price is matched on the opposite side it will likely go through. This is why sometimes closing price is quite different to the days trading. At least thats how I understand it.

[simonshare] 11/1/2019 20:47

Ahh...thanks for pointing that out!
Still learning, this end of day auction is hard to understand. Would it be fair to say that uncrossed trade is some left over deals...that mostly in this case was buy?

[discodave4] 11/1/2019 17:51

If you mean 7,770 that's the UT (uncrossed trade).

[simonshare] 11/1/2019 17:01

Big buy after the bell....:-)

[nimbo1] 11/1/2019 10:50

from my understanding of the conversation with AB it is tencent who apply for approval of the games as they are the ones distributing it on their platform...

[mark4231] 11/1/2019 10:27

Thanks Kamitora and simonshare.

I wonder if PC and JWE would be classed as FDEV or Tencent games for the approval process?

[simonshare] 11/1/2019 10:04

Thx
Foe those without subscription. Says Regulators concentrating on approving licenses for smaller companies with mainly mobile games who are less financially secure. Tencent games are bigger and need more time to be reviewed and approved. Seems to suggest just a temporary delay.

[kamitora] 11/1/2019 09:37

"Tencent has again failed to win approval for new video games after China’s top media regulator issued a list of 84 titles that omitted the industry leader for the second time in a fortnight."

[discodave4] 10/1/2019 18:48

SoSsshhhh :)

[nimbo1] 10/1/2019 08:56

Trading update next week imo - been third week of jan last 2 years.