Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 16/1/2019 08:27

So you don't think that the atmospherics would be provided for free but whatever is needed to full exploit the atmospherics would be a paid for update?

[endion] 15/1/2019 17:07

I’ve also heard rumours of atmospherics for the next paid update. It’s been on the community wish list since the beginning. Interesting to hear that they are compartmentalising the updates in a way, allowing users to pay for which ones they want. I imagine that if you end up getting all the updates it would end up costing more than what they would have charged for the whole package, unless they offer a deal for those wanting to commit to getting all of them.

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 16:43

The significant elite expansion is coming in 2019 and it will be paid for - its been planned for ages. If you go to the elite dangerous wiki pages.


Season 4

There are no announcements about the fourth season yet. The release date is 2019. Braben said after the Beyond season there are a lot of exciting things that they'll announce, some of which will be free and paid.[5]

Frontier will shift from the paid expansion model to major premium DLC that can be purchased. So rather than buying an expansion with multiple updates, you can purchase major updates separately.

David Braben commented in an AMA on 11 April 2017: “I don’t think people liked having to pay for multiple updates in one go, so that is something we are going to move away from. At this end of the ‘season’ it makes sense, as people can see the huge number of features we are delivering, but it makes for a higher price.”[6]

There are rumors that it will be the first editions of atmospheric landings and space legs. Maybe giant executive controlled capital ships. The Fleet Carrier is probably a DLC in 2019.

[endion] 15/1/2019 16:39

Based on that eps we are currently trading on a PE of 10, which is damn low for a growth tech stock. Should be closer to 25.

I would reckon your buy price may partly depend on the outcome of the vote tonight!

[ck1111] 15/1/2019 16:37

I don't think 2019 will be a dip. I would bet on a significant Elite expansion. There are over 4m players now and very happy with the game. It is ripe for a paid update.

[dsct] 15/1/2019 16:19

My guestimate of 24th Nov (#3974), not only seems a long while ago, but upon reviewing, quite wrong ! lol

I pessimistically thought 1.2m JWE sales, and £47.6m total revenue for H1 !

Using the £64m revenue from today's TU as a starting point
I've still kept the Gross Margin at 60%, so Cost of Sales £25.6m
Increased costs to the same as the previous full year (£21.3m).
Operating Profit (OP) therefore of £17.1m
EPS = 45p

If the gross margin remains at the historic 70% level, then OP and EPS increase to £23.5m and 62p respectively.

We know H2 isn't going to be anywhere near the H1 figures, and hopefully that won't be the mis-reported information, just the record YE results, but before then we've the record H1 headlines :o)

Depending on when Franchise 4 is launched, 2019/20 could be another 'dip' year, and the comparison to this (18/19) record year will appear, to those not understanding this, as being poor. I wonder what ED, PC & JWE revenue would be if the F4 launch isn't until the end of the 19/20 year?

On a personal level, I'm now tempted at a 25% increase in my holding, and that will then be my long-term core holding. Not sure what buy-price target to hope for though ! lol

[endion] 15/1/2019 16:17

Team17 benefits from its names popularity and the success of the worms franchise. However Fdev have a bucket load more potential for growth compared to team17, whose market is largely the indie game/smaller game genre. Will be interesting to see how that one progresses.

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 15:26

I wouldn't worry about price - it will correct over time to a more suitable level - in this market as long as the rot has stopped that's good enough for me. It's highly unlikely you'll have new insti investors doing much until after / during the results roadshow early feb - I would like to see some new holders on the register then.

Another thing which intrigues me is the similar market cap to team 17. I would think either fdev needs to double or team 17 needs to halve for the market to be valuing them on a realistic basis.

[mark4231] 15/1/2019 14:57

I was expecting a good trading update but it still exceeded my expectations. JWE sales of 2m is fantastic (I had guesstimated 1.6m so far) and that's 2m potential players to sell DLC to. Plus PC and ED also still seem to be selling well with Horizons Season Pass sales seeming to perk up recently (hxxps://www.gamevizz.com/219/) and good publicity like the current ED expedition helping sales along too. It's under the radar a bit at the moment but I'm expecting the next ED paid DLC to give a very significant boost too. Three good franchises, layer on layer, with DLC and add ons to boot giving an excellent base. They're going to be sitting on a nice pile of cash now so I wouldn't be surprised if after next year they accelerate to 2 franchises a year as they have the money to invest into the company - lets hope they officially confirm it. New franchise, China, other stuff - exciting times, holding tight to my shares! Only thing that isn't exciting is today's share price reaction. lol. My crude calculation gives me a P/E this year of about 9 or lower. Despite the general current market conditions that seems crazy for a growth company.

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 13:26

Endion I anticipate on the 25th of this month you'll have all of the fdev games on sale again - its their birthday after all : )

[endion] 15/1/2019 13:16

If you minus the initial 500k units from the total, and those 5 weeks, you have 1.5m units sold over 180 days. That averages out at 258,333 units per month.

We have 5 months left in the year, with the spring steam sale to come too. If the game can continue to sell even 200k per month, we shall reach 3m units for the year.

Thats as many units that elite has sold so far!! So quite a success for a third game from a company.

[mark4231] 15/1/2019 11:45

rar100, it's a little unclear to me too but this is my understanding. I think JWE is actually already available in China but via Steam whereas the main platform used in China is Tencent's WeGame which doesn't have JWE on it at the moment. So, we'd like it on WeGame as well but it requires the regulator's approval and as we know there has been a block for approval for all games. Now that block seems to have gone but Tencent are not at the front of the queue - as they're a large organisation, and smaller organisations have taken precedence - so we have to wait a little longer. Happy to be corrected by anyone!

Glad to see you're sounding a bit more positive about FDEV now. :-)

Great article nimbo!

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 11:42

Rar Chinese consumers can buy games on steam. Go to the steam china page! Its all about the reach of the platforms though. I believe China is already FDEV's 3rd largest market so they can already sell plenty of games there. Supposedly this article says in 2017 there were 15 million active steam users from china - tiny compared to the overall market Tencent would be able to access via their platform. Thats why permission would be nice! It all seems like a bit of a grey area to be honest and clarification from fdev would be interesting.

hxxps://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/296327/Steam_games_in_China_Making_the_most_of_a_lucrative_opportunity.php

[endion] 15/1/2019 11:40

I was in China last summer. You can use and access steam over there, you can also download and play games through it. Technically it is not officially sanctioned, but they havent come down hard on it as of yet.

[sogoesit] 15/1/2019 11:36

Finncap (broker to FDEV) reiterates, maintains TP 1750p.
Peel Hunt reiterates BUY - TP 1400p.
Liberum reiterates BUY - TP 1800p.

[rar100] 15/1/2019 11:32

Not the best day for the statement, volumes on many AIM shares are very low which makes a difference, and the recent news of tencent not getting approval by China regulators also affects things. (I'm confused as to how JWE is selling in China so if someone can explain that whole bit with tencent and regulators I will be grateful).
But the numbers look good and so I'm hoping that once today is over and people have more time to digest the statement and implications for the SP, there will be a rise by more interest being shown.

[endion] 15/1/2019 09:38

Yep anthony, two £90k sells within minutes of eachother. There is the brexit vote today which is likely spooking investors.

[anthony16731] 15/1/2019 09:31

I'm afraid I've had to add again - probably more exposure than I want but really clear there is a distressed seller now using the volume to dump.It will clear.

[mark4231] 15/1/2019 09:19

There's your answer endion, AIM is broken. Sigh.

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 09:19

I can only assume the world has gone completely mad :-)

[brokenbuckles] 15/1/2019 08:38

Good set of results. Looking forward to details on franchise 4. No idea what it might be, but I do have faith that management know the market, know what makes a good game, and know how to build a community. That is why I own the shares and am happy to own before any details on 4th franchise.

[mad foetus] 15/1/2019 08:06

So to be clear, the Liberum note suggests there will be 8 franchises contributing to FY2022

[nimbo1] 15/1/2019 08:04

Ref elite player numbers that’s a lot of people to sell this years dlc to

[endion] 15/1/2019 07:59

Ooooo, thats interesting. I wonder if we will hear anything from the company.

[mad foetus] 15/1/2019 07:58

Liberum had a big note ready to go, reiterating an £18 target but also saying they expect 2 new games a year from FY2021 onwards, which is news to me