Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[endion] 30/12/2018 02:05

Your short must really be bothering you to post so prolifically.

1. Show data confirming your claims that player base hasnt grown in 3 years. This is in stark contrast to the latest FY report which shows Elite having its most successful year to date.

2. What were their sales expectations for the first paid update, I want a link to numbers, and where is confirmation that this was not met?

If your aim is to genuinely discredit fdev then you should be a little smarter than just negating every single post that anyone puts up and saying the opposite. Hardly an intelligent strategy. You just end up sounding like a ranting fool.

[yankhanson] 29/12/2018 23:50

ck1111, "ED - the large (mainly PC) player base will buy an expansion if it is good". Is 'large' just your opinion again (no offence intended), or do you have actual numbers? The data I see shows the player base hasn't grown in the three years since the last expansion, which Frontier reported as failing to meet sales expectations.

[ck1111] 29/12/2018 19:58

All my opinion, perhaps this was not clear enough. Is the 4th title release date a big deal? Maybe not? It may get more publicity in early 2020 than late 2019. I don't think this is such an issue with ED - the large (mainly PC) player base will buy an expansion if it is good.

With the Elite expansion I suspect it is easier to launch something in 2019 to bring in new revenue if title 4 is further out. Youtubers who have been to Frontier and signed NDAs have confirmed they have seen content that was not in the recent Beyond release. Search through ObsidianAnt's posts on the official forum.

I'm more interested in future plans than revenue - which I think will be towards top end of analyst forecasts.

[yankhanson] 29/12/2018 19:03

ck1111, What's the source of your info "Elite expansion due 2019"? I've seen no such announcement. The last they said about ED content was an apology for the cancellation of the 2018 paid content and they mentioned future content but no expansion and no date.

[mark4231] 29/12/2018 16:56

Yes, FDEV are definitely following the games as a service model - DLC, significant ongoing updates for all games etc. They mentioned it again in the 2018 Annual Report in September.

Over Christmas I purchased Cities: Skylines as it was 75% off on Steam. Wouldn't have bothered otherwise. It was interesting to compare to Planet Coaster, building a city/theme park and both with lots of DLC. As you mention endion, in my opinion, the management aspect is worse in Planet Coaster but what struck me was that the graphics and customization options are much better in Planet Coaster. Both very good games with different strengths. Anyway, now I've bought the cheap base Cities: Skylines game I'm considering purchasing some of the DLC too. I expect similar will happen with people who have purchased FDEV games in the Steam sale, buying DLC, upgrading to Horizons and so on. Will be interesting to see what the next franchise is - FDEV have a lot of 'Planet' trademarks registered.

[ck1111] 29/12/2018 16:51

Endion, interesting thoughts on 4th title. I think they will play to simulation and animation strengths. Kinectimals, ED holo me, JWE dinos all show off excellent animation but a game with more creative & customise-able animals wouldn't surprise me.
I am also conscious of the Jurassic director's comments about seeing the future of gaming but being bound by NDA.

Any thoughts on 4th title release date? We know it is in next financial year and was clearly spelt out by CFO in the Mello presentation. June 2019 is only 1 year on from JWE release and I would be surprised if it was ready then. I also don't think they will want to go up against AAA console titles at Christmas 2019. So it could be early 2020? I also think the Elite expansion which is due 2019 could be very lucrative.

[travellingtrader] 29/12/2018 16:07

YankHanson paid DLCs are a form of games as a service.
So both JW and PC are on games as a service model.
This is not a traditional model. The tradition model is a game is released and has no further paid content.

Upcoming news that we can expect soon:
4th franchise announcement
ED next era details
Trading update

[endion] 29/12/2018 15:17

Shouldnt be long now till the fourth franchise is revealed. I watch a guy who streams planet coaster, he works with fdev sometimes on promotions, charity streams etc, his opinion is that they will move away from management sims with their next game. To be fair, the management side of their games has never been great. So they do need to improve this aspect in the future if they are to release more sim like games. Will be interesting to find out what it will be regardless.

[yankhanson] 29/12/2018 00:27

Mark4231, I'm sure the Steam store Top 100 does not include ED game purchases on the FDEV store. Why would it? But that makes little difference. Those purchases on the FDEV store site are insignificant -- based on info in the annual accounts. FDEV's Elite Dangerous web site directs customers to the Steam store instead of FDEV's own. Similarly FDEV used to sell Planet Coaster on its own store but now directs customers to Steam. FDEV have themselves never sold their game JWE.

This degradation in FDEV's distribution channel is what has caused the large loss of margin reported in the accounts over recent years. Quote disappointing compared to the original pitch of 100% of revenue retained, using a direct-to-customer model, and the company has made no explanation of this negative change to shareholders.

Also no, JWE and PC aren't on a games-as-a-service model. They're on the traditional model of one-off purchase-to-play plus one-off-purchase DLC. Frontier dropped its games-as-a-service model after the disappointing results on Elite Dangerous Horizons (which to their credit they did report).

Trading update awaited here too.

[travellingtrader] 28/12/2018 23:29

To clarify Vale released this list on the 27th Dec so it is the latest: store.steampowered.com/sale/winter2018bestof/

Not surprised ED isn't in the top 100 as it had no paid DLC content released this year.

[makw61] 28/12/2018 22:25

Well maybe the dbase guy copied an existing report template without changing the titles? One URL says "winter2018bestof" and one says "2018_so_far_top_sellers". My money is on the latter being the more relevant. Anyway, bored of this - filtered! ATB

[mark4231] 28/12/2018 21:44

It's very much choose the information and statistics that suit your position.

To suit my position I would point out that a part of FDEV's income is from their games-as-a-service model - for example the Steam Top Sellers link from makw61 shows Elite: Dangerous but does that include the Horizons Season Pass? Does it include the downloadable vanity items available for purchase within the game (which don't go through Steam)? It won't include purchases of Elite: Dangerous done direct through the Frontier Developments website. Does JWE and PC include the related DLC available for purchase? It all counts even if its not going to be of the same magnitude of JWE sales from June and July.

Anyway, I'm expecting a trading update in the next few weeks (or, at worst, the first half results in February). Then we'll have hard information and see how the market reacts to that. I'm very optimistic myself, but DYOR.

[yankhanson] 28/12/2018 21:29

makw61, store.steampowered.com/sale/winter2018bestof/ is not for just the winter sale and I don't know why you're claiming it is. It is headed "BEST OF 2018 TOP SELLERS The top 100 games as measured by revenue this year." And FDEV's Elite Dangerous game is not on the list.

[makw61] 28/12/2018 21:17

This is the correct URL for the whole of 2018 as opposed to just the winter sale:

hxxps://store.steampowered.com/sale/2018_so_far_top_sellers/


JWE is platinum, ED and PC bronze, but all 3 in top 100. Not too long until the next update i would hope.

[discodave4] 28/12/2018 16:44

Thanks czeck, happy new year to you too.

[discodave4] 28/12/2018 16:41

Thanks nimbo.Let's hope 2019 reverses the trend here.

[nimbo1] 28/12/2018 16:35

Dave I agree with you it’s in a rut. No doubt about it. Thing is it’s on aim and we’ve had no news for a long time including ref next release. That matters in a sentiment driven story stock where pi action can cause a large impact on price moves. Conversely it also can create the perfect buying opportunity. Let’s see. I’m looking forward to the jan update.

[discodave4] 28/12/2018 16:29

nimboPerhaps, just getting impatient...........still a pile of pooh, another thumbs down please premium holder with a big yellow streak down their back.

[yankhanson] 28/12/2018 16:26

nimbo1 "according to steam all of fdev's games are in the top 100 across 2018 as a whole at the last official count with JWE being one of the best performing so far this year."

Are you making that up?? The official page hxxps://store.steampowered.com/sale/winter2018bestof/ shows two not three FDEV games and none in the best performing category.

Jurassic World Evolution is in the second category and Planet Coaster is in the bottom. FDEVs third game Elite Dangerous is not in.

That's good enough news without you needing to exaggerate it, nimbo.

Happy New Year everyone.

[nimbo1] 28/12/2018 16:23

Dave you may see a similar thing to craneware here, that was a good buy at £21. Jan trading update soon. Agree it needs a boost. There is also no volume at all....

[discodave4] 28/12/2018 16:18

To think some idiot pays for the pleasure of anonymously giving thumbs down to a factual post.This is a pile of pooh at the moment and the drop from £18 is proof of that...fact.There you go another one for you, unbelievable!.

[endion] 23/12/2018 19:32

Im still in profit Yank. Enjoy your presents of coal.

Is someone trying to put me on the naughty list? Im afraid santa rules by dictatorship rather than democracy.

[nimbo1] 23/12/2018 18:01

according to steam all of fdev's games are in the top 100 across 2018 as a whole at the last official count with JWE being one of the best performing so far this year.

hxxps://store.steampowered.com/sale/2018_so_far_top_sellers/