Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[rar100] 30/7/2018 19:27

Stockopedia has FDEV under it's Cooking the Books category, same as IQE, both companies have good products but the accounts don't add up to steady profits and an share price trend North. The trend is still up for FDEV but not for long if the current sell off continues.
Both companies were and are imho not to great with PR to their shareholders.

[endion] 30/7/2018 12:14

An article on wall street journal mentioned that Fdev has a high level of institutional investors and hedge fund investors. Due to the small float, any selling from these orginisations can result in volatility. See how quick it rose, then fell, it will rise again just as quick. And investors who have been waiting for the bottom will pile in.

[allstar4eva] 30/7/2018 11:30

Surely got to be a large seller? Key will be large trades signifying completion perhaps...

[mark4231] 30/7/2018 10:51

I'm frustrated but patient.

[rivaldo] 30/7/2018 10:48

I have a feeling that the bounce when it comes will be quick and substantial :o))

[shanklin] 30/7/2018 10:32

Certainly a lot of patience required if one continues to hold.

[sogoesit] 30/7/2018 06:38

Thanks bamboo... a “falling knife” more like!
Still trending upwards but a break below latest channel could go to the “horizontal221; support at about 910.
36-1/2% retrace so far.
Poised to accumulate this week for my entry position here.

[endion] 28/7/2018 12:28

If it reaches that level I may well sell some of my other holdings to buy more here. Who doesn't want to buy £18 for £10? Bargain!

Thanks for the heads up bamboo. That end price was manipulated by that flurry of trades, confusing the share price and making it recalculate almost every second as it shifted to accommodate. So I don't yet put much value by where it currently stands. We shall see on Monday!

[bamboo2] 28/7/2018 12:27

PI, price will have to get through the historical support zone 1070-1135 first, but then strong support approx. 1000 if required.

The dominant chart pattern is a Falling Wedge. Typically this breaks out at approx. 60% of its length, which was 24 July. Yesterday afternoon at 4:21pm it seemed that we would finally see an eod close above the upper trendline, signalling a breakout, then the bots got busy!

Next potential turn 31/7/2019

[panic investor] 28/7/2018 11:24

Looks like 1000 is on the cards - I'll be adding more down there based on the buyers at that level

[endion] 28/7/2018 10:48

I didnt actually mean that it would be announced with the Financial Year RNS. From what Braben said, he means to announce it late this year or early next year. September doesnt fall into this time frame, its too early. So it wont be revealed with the FY RNS. I'd say between Nov - Jan.

As others here have said, its likely the announcement is being controlled by the 3rd party who control it. If it is to tie in with another movie release due next year, and not much is known about the movie yet, you wouldnt want to reveal anything that could compromise that. We'll see in
good time. This is a fair way off fair value now. Directors are now in red having bought shares @ circa £13, if they thought £13 was a good value to buy for future prospect then that speaks volumes.

[staverly] 27/7/2018 23:17

Endion: assuming your post 3034 alludes to the forthcoming FY RNS press release, how do you equate the probability of DB upgrading his usual "in due course" stance. Personally, i think it's less than 50/50 that any meaningful 4th Fr. news will be provided in early September. The corollary being that Mr Market will immediately want to drag the stock of this eminently investable company further south, irrespective of stellar sales. Unless, of course, you meant something else ...

[makw61] 27/7/2018 19:35

Agreed, plenty of upside here. It's important to factor in how the model works. So forget about the current player numbers for ED and wait for the re-boot (just like NMS). The game has the highest installed based of the three games so plenty of potential to sell an expansion to existing owners as well as bringing in new ones.

PC is selling well still and each DLC seems to get a good uptake.

JWE has slipped back from its highs but the game will be continually improved, DLC for additional dinosaurs will be strong and i expect a great performance every time it goes on sale. It is expensive but it makes sense to get as many full price sales as possible before discounting.

I think there is a temptation to read too much into the steam charts (availability bias perhaps!). Steam is not the only pc platform around and doesn't necessarily correlate with console sales either.

Gamescon in August so maybe an update on ED then. Failing that the frontier expo i would think. GLA

[endion] 27/7/2018 18:02

No reply.... go figure.

This company has no debt. A steady income that all well informed here know is growing. JWE revenue is going to transform the share price. Fourth franchise being revealed at year end and more updates on all the games!

If anyone can find me a crippling negative anywhere here then I would genuinely, gladly listen. Provided there is evidence.

[makw61] 27/7/2018 17:24

Well, as someone who bought Asos at 50p and sold at £1 i think a bit of confirmation bias can be valuable with these multi-year, multi-bagger opportunities. Biases have evolved for a reason, they aren't automatically wrong in every case. Look up loss aversion, path dependency, kelly criterion for example. (Hint: Kahneman's examples are one-offs as he would be the first to admit, the answer may be different if you link a number of them together).

It would genuinely help if you would set out the data that you think the bulls on this board are ignoring in their supposed confirmation bias. I think we all know what the phrase means.

[endion] 27/7/2018 16:55

Exactly, after hour trades are already higher.

[bamboo2] 27/7/2018 16:53

The UT trade timed at 16.35 is also the opening price on Monday.
Due to the artificial low close, I guess the price will gap up at the open next week.

Bit of a game really!

[endion] 27/7/2018 16:44

*sigh*..... once again, i trade on fundamentals, not bias. Thank you for your aptly timed warning but I'm very comfortable with my research in this company.

Thanks for the direction point bamboo.

Seems like the pattern of selling down in the morning and on close is back. If the pattern follows though we should see some large buy backs after hours.

[hawaly] 27/7/2018 16:42

Perhaps look up confirmation bias while you're there?

[bamboo2] 27/7/2018 16:30

It's called 'painting the tape'.

An eod and/or eow phenomenon. Google it!

[endion] 27/7/2018 16:25

Bizzare number of small trades this afternoon. Anyone have any ideas to explain it? Never seen anything like it.

[endion] 27/7/2018 14:20

At least the market now know when to expect knews of the next franchise. Glad to see Elite is still being supported with an even larger team.

I expect sales from Elite and Planet Coaster might suprise us. Especially given the marketing that JWE afforded Frontier.

[ck1111] 27/7/2018 13:17

Mark4231,

ObsidianAnt speculates there that a big ED announcement is coming soon


at around the 4:20 point

[mark4231] 27/7/2018 13:00

I personally think Elite: Dangerous has great potential for a re-launch alongside a huge new feature such as landing on planets with atmospheres and the associated game play that could go with that.

Look at the big No Man's Sky update this week. The game has been available for 2 years but has disappointed players during that time. This week there is a big new update, which opinion suggests makes it a good game now, and it has been sat at the top of the Steam global top sellers for the last few days.

[shanklin] 27/7/2018 12:52

Thank you hastings

Obviously FDEV seek to get a massive sales bump from each new game and thereafter to achieve the highest possible lifetime profit, for that game, be it through ongoing paid downloadable content or recruiting late adopters to the game.

My simplistic view is that across the games being developed/enhanced, FDEV will allocate staff to maximise overall NPV profit.

As an outsider, it is very difficult to model this and get some handle on profits going forward.


Cheers, Martin