Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[endion] 02/8/2018 12:57

This share price was up at £17 on the hope that JWE would be a success. That has now been proven. There arent many game uk game companies on the stock market, and those that are are young. The market has no experience in them and is seemingly unwilling to do any research. Which results in situations like this where people follow the herd for no reason other than they dont have research to back up their investment.

Its been proven here already where this share price is heading. Remember how quickly it can rise, this is an illiquid stock and the fall in share price has been driven by a very small level of volume.

[my retirement fund] 02/8/2018 12:34

Seems to be taking a ling time to get back to 3 quid or qas it 2 quid whence it came from imo.

[chartsworth] 02/8/2018 12:22

I'm completely out now but watching closely for an upward trend to reassert itself

[fozzie] 02/8/2018 12:16

In at 1085 but saved some firepower in the event of further falls.

[liam1om] 02/8/2018 12:12

Through 1100 and down almost 8% from the open. Poor show.

[allstar4eva] 01/8/2018 16:49

Yep. The summer doldrums is a time to buy in general and not sell unless the markets collapse.

[mark4231] 01/8/2018 16:34

3 weeks to Gamescom and 5 weeks to full year results - hopefully there'll be news that kick starts a bit of a share price recovery.

[discodave4] 01/8/2018 15:26

Not one of my best timed entries here!.........down about 20% in three weeks, who'd have thought it!.One for the long term, if this goes sub £11 will be topping up.DD

[endion] 31/7/2018 17:25

Another flurry of small trades flooding the book before close. Anyone still believe that this share isn't under manipulation? Granted there has been very little volume recently, and not much buying pressure, but the trading has seemed quite strange for a while now.

[fozzie] 31/7/2018 13:51

I have had a buy order in at 1100 and am hoping it gets filled. I think its fallen far enough and i would be holding on now if i were you villa aimho.

[gokarna97] 31/7/2018 13:38

Villarich, for what it's worth I went for the "middle ground" option a couple of weeks back i.e. sold half of FDEV at a loss (I bought at £16) and put in KWS. I have kept the other half because I totally believe in FDEV long term and am not stressing about daily moves in price. My most important investing rule is not to wake up in the morning worrying about any particular share. Good luck!

[villarich] 31/7/2018 13:14

What an absolute bunch of legends you all are. Thanks for taking the time to reply. You've given me some food for thought and helped to realign my chakras on this one.I'm going to do some number crunching tonight and revisit it original investment case to see if it's still an investment I want to hold. There might be a middle ground where I reduce my exposure to a point where I'm comfortable with further drops.Once again, thanks everyone. If I could give two thumbs up I would!

[hpcg] 31/7/2018 13:02

Villarich - yes, you should sell if your money management process demands it. Everyone has their own portfolio structure and investment mechanism. My portfolio has a lot of fixed interest, not a lot more tech and most of that is non-computer tech rather than IT and I am happy to short. Plus I derisked in January and am still massively in profit at these prices on my current holding. So I am happy to hold, and will add if it looks appropriate. You don't owe anything to other PIs, only to yourself.

Personally I see weakness through the rest of the summer, but feel certain there will be buying into the next franchise announcement. I think October will be a strong month.

[mark4231] 31/7/2018 12:50

I have two rules that I (usually!) keep. My purchase price doesn't matter. How would I feel if it goes to zero?

Main thing is though, whatever you decide is to don't look back and regret - just learn!

[sogoesit] 31/7/2018 12:33

Depends on a few things, Villa.
1. Exposure: is it too high for the risk type of investment you allocate to your portfolio? if you're worried about it, Livermore says sell down to the sleeping point!
2. Time View: what is your time view expectation? My entry (albeit mis-timed in retrospect) is based on a 3-5 year view and about £45 value.
3. If you have allocated the funds in this investment to a particular risk type of share do you have any better opportunities in the same category?
4. Has the story changed since you invested? If not, what did you think you did wrong and should you change your view?

In this category of risk I have PRSM and DGOC. FDEV makes up 2-1/2% which is my limit for this type of risk on entry. The story hasn't changed; I'm looking for £45 in 3 years so no change there either. I'm waiting next news so earliest I might change my mind is next year.
£45/£17 = 165%. Downside is about £10 (about 50%). Risk/reward looks good to me for time being for this illiquid potential volatility.

As endion says... "Or you walk away completely".

[endion] 31/7/2018 12:29

As others have said you need to do what is good for you!

Long term, once the numbers are printed and released, this will return to its previous high, quite possibly beyond (depending on sustainability with fourth franchise).


Shorr term, if you dont enjoy a paper loss, or were wanting this as a short term profit, then you could be in for a frustrating few months. Remember that investing is usually the transferring of shares from the impatient to the patient.

I see three outcomes when selling now.

1. You sell, it drops, you buy back in at a lower price.

2. You sell, price hovers, you decide to buy in again anyway but have paid broker fees on the transactions.

3. You sell, it rises, you have alresdy made a loss and are now unwilling to pay more than you sold for those shares you made a loss on.

Or you walk away completely! My advice based on my own research would be to hold for the long tern. Trying to trade the share to get a better buy in price usually ends up with getting burned (ask any day trader), and unless you are doing across a massive range of shares to cover your losses the odds are against you.

Having said all that, you need to weigh up what your situation is and make he best choice for you. Good luck!

[funkmasterp12] 31/7/2018 12:24

"My heart is telling me to hold on. It’s a great business with a good set of franchises but my head is saying be prepared to sell. I have limits on losses I’m willing to take which have served me well in the past."

As allstar4eva says, do what works for you and only you can make the decision. I was in a similar boat myself recently with Foxtons, which I had from 80p all the way down to 51p before selling out with a horrible loss. A few weeks on though, I've forgotten about it and learnt the lesson to stick to my planned exit points. Assuming FDEV isn't a serious chunk of your portfolio, it's sometimes better to take the loss and the experience.

Obviously NIA and you should always DYOR, etc.

[panic investor] 31/7/2018 12:21

Rules are there for a reason - The Transporter :-)

[panic investor] 31/7/2018 12:19

Disciplined is an understatement - good luck anyway

[villarich] 31/7/2018 12:10

Hi Mark, thanks for your reply. I also think they're worth more than the current share price Significantly more in fact. The JWE franchise has sold exceptionally well and will continue to do so . Fair value for me is around £17.50 given what we know now but that's based on some really rough calculations. I don't currently have anything on my radar to invest in but at least I can't lose value on my cash (ignoring inflation).You've given me some food for thought though. Before I do anything I'm going to do some number crunching!

[allstar4eva] 31/7/2018 12:10

And even though I hold the chart does look awful. One of my rules is to sell when the price goes below the 200 day sma. Now if I had followes that rule I'd have sold at £13 quid!

[allstar4eva] 31/7/2018 12:06

Do what works for you. Worth bearing in mind though visibility of performance and liquidity of the share. FDEV is clearly very illiquid and there is enough information available in the public domain re:sales to suggest that broker forecasts could (and perhaps should) be smashed. There are always exceptions to every rule however there are other considerations such as percentage of portfolio, purchase price etc so it is always a very personal decision. Good luck whatever you do.

[mark4231] 31/7/2018 12:02

My prediction is that Elite: Dangerous will get a re-launch next year with atmospheric planets and lots of new related game play and that we'll see increased income, because of that, from Elite: Dangerous than we're currently expecting. No evidence, just speculation, maybe it's because I've been playing No Man's Sky this week and am thinking of the potential...

Villarich, I believe FDEV are worth significantly more than the current share price - and that value will be supported by the companies ongoing plans - so continue to hold but really you have to do what you feel comfortable with. What do you think they are worth? Do you have somewhere better to invest your money?

[villarich] 31/7/2018 11:59

Thanks Panic. I might sell some but leave some chips on the table so any further drop has less of an impact. I'm not sure I could get into forex. I'd need to be disciplined and that's often not me!

[panic investor] 31/7/2018 11:55

If you're rules have performed well previously abide by them - don't worry what other people think.If you ever get into forex you'll always have to trust in your plan otherwise you'll get wiped out damn fast