Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 20/7/2018 10:08

It's the large volume run up to 1800 that looks anomalous rather than the current price. I assume that was largely caused by Oppenheimer going to 2 million in (presumably) cfd's. Tencent took 3.3 million shares at 523. They could easily be selling down or out. The somewhat indiscriminate selling looks like an institution or other large holder exiting come what may. It happens; look at Woodford and PSDL.

Edit - I have orders in to catch a potential spike down - did not get hit today, so they are lower than today's low!

[endion] 20/7/2018 10:00

Mad foetus, any chance of knowing where that rumour came from? Or verification of?

[bamboo2] 20/7/2018 09:51

p1nk, re, potential turns. I draw up two sets of daily charts for each stock. One uses mid price data to create candle shape, the other uses last market price data.

Yesterdays potential turn occurs on the mid price chart, and I would consider this fulfilled as a low turn, or valley, if the share price closes up at eod today. I do however, sometimes misread the chart, and get direction wrong.

On the last market price based chart the same trendlines give a different potential turn date, 24-25/7/2018. As you know I have traded this share for a considerable amount of time and I have found for fdev the mid priced based chart more accurate.

[mad foetus] 20/7/2018 09:50

I was thinking about a placing and surely it won't happen: firstly, the business is making big profits but more importantly, Tencent are in the background. If they needed money they would surely tap Tencent for more?

[shanklin] 20/7/2018 09:48

hastings,

Maybe not, but FDEV have been releasing positive updates whilst getting their share price trashed, which is quite unusual.

Any form of "no knowledge" comment would at least rule out out a highly discounted placing to fund an acquisition based diversification into one of the new areas alluded to by David Braben..

[vworlds_cambridge] 20/7/2018 09:47

I assume any share placement to raise funds will have been completely scuppered by the recent fall in price? Also, it seems that if this is the reaction to some insider knowledge, then management would surely have to have made an announcement by now. So, it does seem like the impact of shorting, people having a completely unrealistic expectation for sales (it's a dinosaur park sim, not Fortnite, and was never going to sell tens of millions), and the psychological impact of having the big negative red number on the portfolio (very tempting to sell and move on).

Assuming the above, it seems that the price should recover fine, given a couple of months.

[mad foetus] 20/7/2018 09:46

Rumour that Cannacord cleared the seller yesterday. I think the MMs have been in accumulation mode and there is a big chance this will be walked up very quickly now.

[hastings] 20/7/2018 09:42

Shanklin, I wouldn't expect them to comment, any more than they did when the shares surged upwards.

[mad foetus] 20/7/2018 09:37

The share price action doesn't make much sense to me, but I cannot imagine there are too many sellers at this level. If you are technically minded you would have sold long ago. If you care more about the fundamentals they are getting stronger and stronger. It is not exactly good value, but each unit sold is, after paying the licence fee, pure profit in the bottom line. We now have three strong franchises with annuity income likely to be in the £30-50m bracket (obviously JWE add ins are an unknown at present), two new franchises in production and on for a new launch each year, and we have to assume that will be a minimum million plus seller, adding a minimum £10-20m to the annuity income.

[shanklin] 20/7/2018 09:33

Does anybody have any specific questions for the FD other than why has there been no RNS commenting on the 35%+ decline in the share price from £18.25 at COB on 5th June to £11.45 currently?

It would obviously also be helpful for FDEV to do a filmed formal results presentation or similar, which could then cover in a bit more detail how they plan to move forward as per the following paragraph from the 12-Jun-18 RNS:

"As communicated in the Group's previous Annual Reports, in addition to the current core model of using internal resources supplemented by outsourced services, the Group will continue to explore other models to accelerate its scale-up by further leveraging existing expertise, intellectual property, publishing presence, relationships and financial position. These models include third party publishing (controlling the promotion and distribution of other developers' games), commissioning (outsourcing the majority of development of Frontier games to other developers), and enhancing the Group's franchise portfolio or capabilities via acquisitions."

[funkmasterp12] 20/7/2018 09:28

Got my eye on this for a bounce after totally messing up my sale previously - a couple of key support zones approaching, c. £11.25 being the first - if it breaches this, it could go all the way down to £10 where support is a lot stronger.

Sentiment against this despite the great updates - surprising, but one to trade as you see it I guess.

[p1nkfish] 20/7/2018 09:28

Anyone want to predict local bottom?

[p1nkfish] 20/7/2018 09:27

Weakness on good news may have emboldened sellers/shorters.

[czeck] 20/7/2018 09:25

Agree but this made me chuckle 'It’s been an even more rewarding year for investors(...)who have seen the value of their shares rise 145% since last July. '
Should have added 'but have since seen the share price drop by 250% since Mid June'

[endion] 20/7/2018 09:21

Not blinkered czeck, just aware of the fundamentals at play regardless of a mindless market reaction.

[czeck] 20/7/2018 09:16

Meanwhile Yahoo finance wearing blinkers..

[cormask] 20/7/2018 09:10

Yes indeed it does and if anything seems to be accelerating.

[czeck] 20/7/2018 09:06

and the rout resumes!

[sogoesit] 20/7/2018 08:46

Unfortunately final results, to year-end 31 May, will give us little insight about the new "step-up" in game assets (JWE) apart, hopefully, some development cost info. What we are looking for are trading updates, which may of course happen at the final results in a trading outlook. However, I would hope something transpires before then.
I am disappointed in their management of news about forthcoming franchises since there is no guidance as to what criteria they will use to pick a news issuance time to my knowledge.

Here's the quote from the interims about the results to 31 May, issued on 6 February:

"The Board continues to anticipate that Frontier's next step-up in financial performance will be delivered by the launch of Jurassic World Evolution in summer 2018 on PC, PlayStation 4 and Xbox One. The Board continues to expect that revenue from this new franchise will fall into the financial year ending 31 May 2019, as the Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom movie is released in June 2018. The Board therefore continues to anticipate that trading in the current financial year, the twelve months ending 31 May 2018, will principally be based on sales from the Elite Dangerous and Planet Coaster franchises."

[liam1om] 20/7/2018 08:01

Final results just two months away now. Let's hope we bounce soon.

[endion] 20/7/2018 07:29

I have no idea what that could be. Mm's exchanging shares possibly? This will be an interesting day.

[square1] 20/7/2018 07:23

Big trade prints put this morning 433,588 at 1240- printed twice- one last night, one today. Is that a double print? Was that the reason for the fall? Or will that turnout to be a non-issue tax related trade?

[endion] 20/7/2018 06:31

Once again the delayed large buys all add up to circa 60k shares, the same amount as bennbridges increase in short position. To put this in perspective the two deferred trades that seemed to cripple the share price yesterday were 16k each, totalling half of bennbridges extra short. Seeing how exaggerated share price movements can be on this stock due to a small free float, i wouldnt be suprised if they were the main reason for this share price movement. Obviously other sellers were in the mix, but selling 60k shares each day will have a large impact on this share price.
DYOR.

[kamitora] 20/7/2018 06:04

Dinosaur video game proves a roaring success for British tech firm Frontier Developments

[breakconvention] 20/7/2018 00:23

Wouldn't it be lovely if one of the 2 new games was the long awaited, new 007 game... It would obviously need to wipe the floor, set long ago by the N64 'Golden Eye' game - But as it's Daniel Craigs last performance as bond, I'm sure there will be a game release that co-insides with this movie release. If I were a studio exec, FDEV would definitely be a port of call. In my mind only TTWO or FDEV could deliver a game of the quality that the 007 Franchise deserves. It's only a dream, but if it happens, it could send FDEV into orbit.