Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[roddiemac2] 19/4/2021 12:09

Time will tell. I think it is worth remembering that the sea is the last frontier , and that many of the specialist services that the Co. offers are in long term growth areas.

[bouleversee] 16/4/2021 18:59

Thanks, Illis. I shall try to be optimistic. Let's face it, it's not going to make much difference to me personally anyway. It's just those grandchildren trying to get on the housing ladder in a few years time I worry about, and don't like to see the shares I have given them lose in value. At least I had a good dividend from Rio today which will be a great help in paying the bills. Have a nice weekend.

[illiswilgig] 16/4/2021 18:20

boule,

to be fair - when asked what was the most risky share she held - she answered that she only had 6 shares with any debt, then said that James Fisher was one of the most risky as it had made some bad capital allocations and needed to reduce debt by selling underperforming businesses - which she said she thought it would achieve.

She didn't actually say it was THE most risky. She clearly doesn't do high levels of debt.

You could see it as good that she invested in Fisher despite its high levels of debt and that she thinks it will get its act together?

Take your pick

With respect to selling - yes a lot harder than buying!

cheers

[bouleversee] 16/4/2021 14:03

I haven't looked at the video yet but did read the podcast summary and noted that she regsrded FSJ as the most risky. So sad to see what has happened to what was my best investment. When will I learn to take profits before they disappear instead of falling in love with the holding?

[illiswilgig] 16/4/2021 11:43

Tomps - thank you. A fascinating interview and well worth watching the whole thing. I use Piworld quite a bit now but probably would not have had reason to watch this without your prompt. Thanks.

I agree with the concerns expressed over FSJ level of debt and some recent capital allocation decisions. And what remains to be done to reduce debt levels - probably getting rid of some businesses - to focus upon the growth areas.

To be fair they were the decisions made by the previous CEO - yes those dive boats I keep banging on about, and the middle eastern fiasco - but who did also achieve a lot but things went a bit off piste in his last year or two - and the soon to be ex-chairman who should have been able to do a much better job of steering the strategy.

What I find positive is that she invested in Fisher despite the debt concerns - so she must she something there that she rates highly? I note that Fisher is not one the top10 holdings in the fund - but large enough that the rise in share price in February was the largest positive contribution to the fund in that month according to their latest factsheet.

cheers

[tomps2] 16/4/2021 10:06

James Fisher (FSJ) mentioned at 32:40 in the latest Piworld Interview by Rosemary Banyard which, she holds in her VT Downing Unique Opportunities Fund.

Watch the Video here:

Or Listen to the podcast version here:

[illiswilgig] 14/4/2021 10:51

Actually the shareprice has been in a down trend for a month now having peaked at 1270 on 15th March.

I'd expect around 1070 to be the low of the current cycle - in the absence of bad newflow and accordingly I've bought a small tranche on top of my core holding in the expectation of a short term rise on positive newsflow.

But it could go either way, we'll see, I have habit of timing this kind of thing wrongly.

cheers

[bouleversee] 13/4/2021 22:45

Rather strange goings on re Kilpatrick's departure being so abrupt that the AFM agenda had to be altered. What do you make of it all, Roddie and Illis? I have to say I have rather lost confidence in the company and the market doesn't seem to be giving them much of a backing either.

[our haven] 15/3/2021 15:33

Very good day today. Onwards and upwards with the new team

[r2oo] 14/3/2021 19:19

A classic case of what the great Peter Lynch coined as Diworsification.It has some great underlying businesses so we can just hope the new CEO and CFO strip out the dead wood and focus on what they are really good at and the more profitable segments.

[illiswilgig] 13/3/2021 10:40

Hello Roddie,

Good to hear from you and all good points.

In my view the board and the CEO - having just completed his first full year, and what a year - are carrying out a kitchen sinking exercise. Getting all the bad numbers out in view, and potentially being over conservative. But thats no bad thing if it means that more bad news is less likely once the good news starts to flow? I would do the same in their place.

The bad debt provision and the write down on the dive support vessels are a part of this exercise?

In the 5 years to 2014-2019 (not including the recent results) revenue has grown at 7% whilst eps has only grown at 4% a year - the wrong way around? Profit margins have fallen from 12% to 7% and the return on capital employed (ROCE) from 17% to 8%. At the same time net debt has more than tripled from 62m to 199m.

We have been repeatedly told by the board that it's all sorted - but it hasn't been.

If that makes me sound negative - I am not. I am surprisingly positive. I think the group comprises some great quality businesses in growth markets with leading technologies and people.

But how to square this with the worsening perfomance figures?

It seems to me that the best businesses are at risk of being suppressed and starved of cash and capital by increasing levels of 'bloat' surrounding them? It has been clear for a couple of years that investment decisions in marine support have been off the rails - just by the effect upon margin and return on capital contained in the reports. Fixing it seems to have been more difficult than expected as well?

I have read the CEO's report in some detail and agree with his strategy - as far as it goes at the moment. The pandemic provides the CEO with an opportunity to turn the ship around and overhaul more radically than would normally be the case? This is happening across many industries. In which case I anticipate/expect that a leaner, more efficient group will emerge in the medium term.

The new CEO is due to be joined by a new Chairman shortly - I expect the focus on the key performance metrics will only be enhanced by this.

I will be watching progress and news flow very closely for signs of success,

cheers

[roddiemac2] 12/3/2021 13:50

Hello illis,

Positive news flow:-- I note that they intend to explain their strategy in the first half of this year ( Capital Markets Day ), So not too long to wait for that.

It seems clear that they are considering divesting themselves of some of the less profitable parts of the business. They have made a large impairment charge against the two dive support vessels bought in 2019.

The £17m goodwill impairment ----Does that suggest they might not get paid for some of the money owed to them ?

A positive note :-- The fourth quarter was 7% above the previous quarter

Decommissioning gets mentioned several times. We discussed the scale of decommissioning rigs in the North Sea some time ago.From memory, decommissioning involves the government encouraging the necessary decommissioning through a tax incentive . The government is not in a good place to do that now--?

Take care

[illiswilgig] 11/3/2021 12:58

Results.

First impression? Glass half empty. Seems a bit disappointing, even though the figures are slightly less worse than they could have been.

But on further inspection I can see indications that the glass is actually half full.

It's not really a surprise that parts of the business had grown increasingly inefficient and mistakes had been made in capital spend.

The pandemic has probably brought some of this forward, and made some of the damage more visible than it otherwise would have been? Perhaps thats made it easier to drastically prune where necessary which should mean a more efficient group emerges capable of investing more capital where it can grow more sustainably.

Even the lack of a final divi is a good thing if the cash is better put to use patching the holes and reinflating the balance sheet to allow more acquisitions. Though lets go back to the profitable ones with leading positions in niche markets now please?

Also has something of a flavour of a 'kitchen-sinking' or perhaps I should say 'dive-support-boat-sinking' exercise. In that we've had all the bad news - but just the tease of better things to come?

So overall, slightly disappointed, but not surprised and just a little bit pleased with the approach being taken to the strategic review and future allocation of capital.

Though there is plenty of good news in the price already - currently trading on 24x statutory profits (exc exceptionals) and you can see why they like to use adjusted figures - more like 14.5x underlying operating profits.

Need to see some positive news flow sooner rather than later, otherwise this will just be treading water for a while?

cheers

[dodkins] 11/3/2021 10:30

Decent results? I can't see any reason this won't get back to pre-COVID levels in 2021, and well beyond given the oil price expectations for a next cycle.

[our haven] 11/3/2021 09:50

Leedslad Currently holding up and no big sell off which is encouraging.

[leedslad001] 11/3/2021 07:46

Big sell off I think

[our haven] 11/3/2021 07:37

Results being slightly ahead of expectations and the debt reduction probably means that we should open positively but I am not expecting any fireworks

[illiswilgig] 09/2/2021 09:19

Pleasantly surprised by the recent shareprice strength - most likely on the back of rising oil prices and positive outlook for oil in 2021. Disappointed by the lack of positive newsflow,

cheers

[bouleversee] 07/1/2021 09:51

I don't find their communications at all helpful. Glad to see the share price rise a bit but don't have any feel for the future and the relationship with shareholders seems to have changed.

[elsa7878] 07/1/2021 09:18

Not a shareholder - clearly been very highly rated in the past. 20 X earnings plus...now more like 15 X. Not sure on the debt figure. Seems high as clearly w/c and capex are a drain on cash generation.

[illiswilgig] 07/1/2021 09:12

Good moaning and a Happier New Year to you all!

James Fisher post-close trading statement out this morning.

Hard to read the future with so few tea leaves in the bottom of the cup?

Operating Profits confirmed to be towards the upper end of the 35-40m guidance given in November with revenue for the full year down 16%.

Which in itself may prove to be a relief?

On the glass halfempty view - Marine Support (excluding ship to ship xfr) is clearly a problem and a significant writedown in assets - 25% of the assets - can be expected, giving some kind of guidance for the future of this division going forwards?

Could have been worse and I expect the share to trade higher as a result - 950-1000 perhaps - pretty much where I expect it until there is some positive newsflow.

On the glass half full side - there has been no deterioration and trading continued to improve in Q4 by 7% over Q3. Specialist Technical, Offshore Oil, Tankships and the ship to ship xfr side of marine support are doing well. The rest of marine support is being rapidly pruned back to size.

Management guidance appears to be cautious and conservative at the moment - which I like, but in the absence of strong growth prospects it's frustrating to have so little information!


cheers

Illis

[our haven] 07/1/2021 08:24

Great trading update showing the recovery.

[roddiemac2] 01/12/2020 20:08

boule

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