Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[roddiemac2] 10/1/2020 22:29

A happy and prosperous new year to all holders here.

[roddiemac2] 10/1/2020 09:55

bouleversee,

I respectfully suggest that you don`t worry about price monitoring extensions. You could google "stock market price monitoring extensions ". They are not detrimental to your investment here. They are part of the " mechanics " of the market .

I can see no reason why recent events should affect the company`s performance .

I note that the new CEO has bought 6,463 shares.

[bouleversee] 09/1/2020 14:48

Can anyone explain the significance of the price monitoring extensions today? I think most things are down a bit today but FSJ seems to be taking a long time to recover its previous high last August. How are recent events likely to affect it in the longer term?

[gilesy] 23/12/2019 09:51

this looks like a great long term investment
bought in today at 2044

[illiswilgig] 07/11/2019 14:27

Ooops - got my first sentance tangled -

should have said that it's unlikely that the business impact is greater - rather than less - than the drop in share price

typical!

cheers

[illiswilgig] 07/11/2019 14:23

I think its unlikely - but certainly not impossible - that the business impact is less than the drop in shareprice and insignificant in the long term.

To be pedantic - and I apologise - the notice does not say that the financial systems have been hacked.

The notice tells us that access to the communication and financial systems has been restricted as a result of taking the impacted systems offline as a precaution.

That covers a very wide range of scenarios. The worst case scenarios are not the most likely - IMHO
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Thus the odds are that the shareprice fall is overdone - accordingly I've added 350 or so more shares to my already large no1 shareholding with the intent of selling them in the short term. Trading is not my natural environment so I've been timid in my buy.

if the price falls further on no news then I will buy more. Though right at the moment it is rising again,

cheers

[roddiemac2] 07/11/2019 09:59

Hello bouleversee,

It does not take much to drop a share price in these times. Since we have no quantifiable information on which to make a judgement , I will sit tight. This is a very unusual situation.

[bouleversee] 06/11/2019 09:44

Possibly because I hold some of my FSJ shares in certificated form, I had an email from them. I don't really understand the implications. Why should it cause such a drop in s.p?

[mw8156] 06/11/2019 09:14

worrying that the hack has involved their financial systems- and they felt it necessary to notify the market since cyber incidents are probably frequent at many companies and do not result in a formal market notification.

[cfro] 01/10/2019 06:34

So, we have a new CEO now as Nick Henry steps down.

Surprisingly quiet here, no comment on the nice multi-million pound (shame they didnt give any more financial detail than that) contract sub-sea contract win from Friday?

[roddiemac2] 10/9/2019 19:46

hxxps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569118304484

[illiswilgig] 10/9/2019 19:11

Thank you Roddie, very interesting.

I am sure that I read somewhere recently that the extent of the decommissioning is not yet settled. Seems that the companies and the UK government are planning to leave the below the surface structures in place - including toxic waste reservoirs. It remains to be seen whether this decommissioning light is approved - or whether the more expensive removal of the subsea structures will also be required? Which may provide more opportunities for companies like Fisher?

cheers

Illis

[roddiemac2] 09/9/2019 20:47

So It will be tax relief , not direct payments.

[roddiemac2] 09/9/2019 20:42

DECOMMISSIONING IN THE UK
Brent is just one of around 470 installations that will be decommissioned in the UK sector over the next 30 to 40 years. In the wider North Sea, industry experts expect to see around 600 installations decommissioned.

So far, around 10% of the North Sea has entered the decommissioning phase. Some 40 decommissioning programmes have been submitted to the government’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) – the government body that regulates the decommissioning of offshore oil and gas installations and pipelines in the UK. The BEIS website provides a comprehensive overview of decommissioning programmes which can be accessed here:

BEIS Website

This presents the UK with the opportunity to become a global leader in decommissioning – with skills and experience that can later be deployed around the world.

There are around 1000 people currently working on the Brent Project, both offshore and onshore, and the majority are employed by UK companies. The Brent Project is contributing to the positive impact on the supply chain, and local companies.

In terms of overall Brent Decommissioning project spend to 2025, we expect greater than 85% UK content. The final number will likely be higher as some contracts have still to be awarded.

Tax and Decommissioning Relief Deeds (DRDs)
Decommissioning is a cost incurred as part of the lifecycle of the field, and is therefore tax deductible. This is not unusual – corporate tax is paid on profits, which for an oil field is calculated as the sum of the income generated by the facility, minus the costs of setting it up, operating it and decommissioning the field at the end of its life. Like other investments in infrastructure, decommissioning costs are subject to tax relief.

The government has agreed a legally binding framework with the oil and gas industry to ensure long term certainty on the tax relief regime for decommissioning costs, which helps to safeguard continuous investment in the North Sea. The agreement, known as Decommissioning Relief Deeds (DRDs), ensures operators can plan for and quantify the future decommissioning costs.

Shell and Esso will be paying the decommissioning costs for the Brent Field. The tax relief we will get back is not a subsidy or a new cost to the taxpayer – it’s a refund – i.e. the tax has already been paid by Shell and Esso in previous years.

Given that the government has received more than £20 billion (in today’s money) as tax from the Brent field, the tax relief Shell and Esso will receive once decommissioning is complete, will have been paid for many times over already.

[roddiemac2] 09/9/2019 20:38

Illis,

I must do a little research into the removal of obsolete or redundant oil and gas rigs . We discussed this in mid 2017 . From memory, the UK government will have to make payments towards this activity. Most of the decommissioning will be done by foreign companies , but Fisher is well placed to provide various specialist services.

[bouleversee] 09/9/2019 17:58

Thanks, Illis. I feel reassured and shall ignore the share price and await next figures and dividends.

[illiswilgig] 09/9/2019 17:00

roddie - thank you, praise indeed.

Bouleversee - no, I have no knowledge of the new boss - other than the info in the rns releaae. I am relieved that the new CEO has an engineering background, though I admit to some bias.

Its always discomforting when such a successful leader as Nick Henry steps down. On this occasion my faith in the current management will have to extend to their ability to choose the right succession.

I see no problem with the oil and gas business. Global demand for oil and gas is still rising. I am sure that it will fall, eventually, but it's going to take a long time to go away - a few decades at least - and with the US current policies perhaps longer, to the detriment of the planet, unfortunately.

I anticipate Fisher's marine support and specialist technical services will more than replace the oil and gas business - although I also anticipate signicant business in the removal and decommissioing of the oil and gas installations for many decades to come.

cheers

[roddiemac2] 09/9/2019 10:45

illiswilgig,

Well summarised.
FSJ continue to be my largest holding.

cfro,

Renewables are likely to grow at a pace, regardless of what economies do.

[bouleversee] 30/8/2019 11:27

Yes, I wasn't worried about the current year and the fact that they have upped the interim div. shows confidence. I just wondered whether there were any long term issues over which they have little or no control that should concern us. This has been a great company and hopefully will continue to be so. However, any company is only as good as its current management and a lot of my other great companies are now in dire straits.

[cfro] 30/8/2019 10:59

Although the interims were flat the board has intimated that profits will come through in the second half - there is no reason to disbelieve the directors and especially that they have increased the divi which is done with confidence.

However what really attracted me to this company is the renewable angle to the business. They are proving now that they are capable of winning some quite major contracts in this sector and i believe there will be many more large contracts to win in the future.

[bouleversee] 30/8/2019 09:18

My largest holding, too, and that of all my immediate family members. Looking ahead, with all the environmental concerns and encouragement to switch away from oil and gas, how do you think this is going to affect FSJ? Do you think there will always be enough demand for oil to keep them busy and that their windfarm and other work will compensate?

What do you know about the new boss?

[illiswilgig] 30/8/2019 08:47

All quiet on the Fisher Front? And the interim results passed with barely a murmur.

Thought I'd take a moment to summarise them as the headline figures don't really justify the current rating of the share.

The company invested over 50m in acquisitions and capital investment (two dive ships and a tanker)

Revenue up by 10% (4% excluding currency and acquisitions) is over shadowed by the profit down 3% and 4% underlying.

On the face of it - not much growth - but to be fair the company had already signaled that the results would be skewed to the second half. But will they - there is always a danger that anticipated work will be further delayed?

Performance of Marine Support and Specialist Technical - the two divisions which have driven recent growth - marked time as acquisitions and capital investment (two dive ships) underpin future growth in Africa, South America and Middle East.

Overall performance would have been much worse had it not been for the star performance of Offshore oil - revenue up 24% and op profit up 275% albeit from a small base - and in tankships the unloved coastal tanker cash cow of the group - revenue up 17% and operating profit up 37% - buoyed by a temporary increase in the fleet but also with investment in a 5yr contract to the MoD for a sizeable additional vessel.

So all remains to play for in the second half. While I am a little concerned that the lacklustre performance of Marine Support and Specialist Technical might continue - I am more than impressed by the good results from offshore oil and tankships. I see the boards raising of the interim dividend by 10% - and this is not a company profligate with its dividends - as the strongest possible signal of the boards expectations for the full year.

I hold very firmly (FSJ is once again my largest holding) and with significant weakness I will be adding to it (subject to availability of funds),

cheers

[cfro] 07/8/2019 07:11

Nice acquisition announced - Brazilian company SM international for a total consideration of £7.5m.

[illiswilgig] 10/7/2019 08:14

For what its worth a quick search of the internet reveals that there are at least 4 broker analysts following FSJ.

Which seems likely given that it's an FTSE250 company. Platforms like HL will only display information from those analysts willing to provide their product for little or nothing. I'd question whether such 'free' analyst information is either meaningful or useful. I do watch such information to keep an eye on what the 'herd' is thinking. I find the most imteresting situations where my research and views differ most strongly from the 'herd'. Of the 2 broker views currently on Digital Look - one rates FSF a strong buy, and the other a neutral.

My conclusion is that the herd is milling around and doesn't have a clue. At the moment I rate the track record of the company and its management well above the track record of the broker analysts.

Forecasts - presumably from these same analysts - are for a 6% increase in profits this year. Which is weak compared with the current shareprice of around 20x forecast profits.

That should be contrasted with the Chairmans own forecast in the last results of a return to double digit earnings growth in the medium term - which makes the share price look much better value.

If the share price continues to drift downwards towards anyting like 1800 I will top up again - even though FSJ is currently my largest holding.

cheers

Illis

[roddiemac2] 09/7/2019 21:44

In recent weeks I have had no time to properly follow my investments. I need to catch up. On the basis that your own ideas are often the best, I rarely pay much heed to broker comments . Strong sell? ---Penny Shares( not something I read ) said that when the price reached 300p. They had no idea about the company`s potential, and were merely keen to recommend their readers to lock in a quick profit; nothing wrong with that , but history shows that the real money is made long term. Without delving further, Tempus seem about right. I will, however, ask a few questions this week.