Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 16/3/2020 11:02

At any other time, the theft of my handbag and contents, inc. about £50 cash, would have been a major stress. However, compared with the massive paper losses on my p/fs, increasing by the day, and facing 6 months or more self-protecting self-isolation, which I have already started, the theft has proved to be merely an entertaining diversion with some extraordinary co-incidences and happenings which could be the basis of a short TV drama which I might actually attempt once I have got my affairs in order and if I manage to avoid the dreaded virus long enough; it would almost certainly be fatal in my case.

There are two ways of looking at things, however. The drop in share prices has substantially reduced the amount of IHT that would be payable on my death. It's rather too late to give away more as it will be something of a miracle if I survive another 7 years so instead of self-isolating, should I be exposing myself to the virus so my heirs can get their hands on my estate and be ready to invest it before the post-virus bounce? I find it difficult to engage my brain on that, however, and would much rather keep amusing myself by contemplating the reaction of the thief when he discovers the Mulberry handbag was actually a fake and his possible arrest, having been caught on CCTV and identified, if the police ever get their act together which is sadly unlikely, however. They still haven't been to see the CCTV images or to interview me. Probably too busy breaking up fights over loo rolls. LOL.

[roddiemac2] 16/3/2020 10:01

No meaningful volume at these prices:- 6,0000 odd shares in over 100 small trades.

[roddiemac2] 16/3/2020 08:59

illis,

We have been a little premature with our top ups! Calling the bottom will be difficult.

[roddiemac2] 28/2/2020 09:46

The bulk of the small trades would appear to be algorithm generated.

My broker thinks that if we don`t get a bounce in the next week or two the market could lose another 1,000 points.

This morning I managed to get 1,000 shares @ 1,682.61 . If the shares go lower , I will buy more.

[illiswilgig] 28/2/2020 09:16

Well thats surprised me!

The real price turns out to be 1608 - but is it real? The volumes of the last trades (delayed by 165 minutes on the LSE are

50
8
21
9
6

Who is selling 6 shares right now?

Just for fun I've bought 179 online and the price was 1652. I was rather surprised to get a quote. Only time will tell if this purchase turns out to be as previous as my earlier attempts.

[roddiemac2] 27/2/2020 21:10

There were 391 trades shown on ADVFN making a total of 53,516 shares. If you deduct the largest trade , shown as a buy ( 23,938 shares ) and the uncrossing trade ( 10,738 shares ) then 18,840 shares were traded in 389 separate trades. the average trade is therefore 48.43 shares: There is no sign of large sellers. Buys are shown as 343,592; sells are shown as 17,980; 944 unknown. Market makers have had a field day. In the banking crisis the shares halved BRIEFLY in similar trading. A lot of small traders triggering stop losses can drive a price to "artificial" lows.

[roddiemac2] 27/2/2020 20:24

onceatrader,

Twitter is not used by the old hands here, myself included.

We are aware of the impairment. The company is more than capable of compensating for the loss.

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2020 19:54

Agreed, twitter is a step too far for me.

My loss I know,

cheers

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2020 19:53

What do these price monitoring extensions signify?

It's a normal market process. At the market close the automated system holds a 5 minute auction to determine the closing price. If the matching price is more than 5% (normally) from the price before the auction a 5minute extension is entered - and a second one if needed.

I notice that the closing price has been set at -5% from the price immediately before the close of play.

Therefore I don't expect this to be a real price. But time will tell.

cheers

[bouleversee] 27/2/2020 16:51

What do these price monitoring extensions signify?

[bouleversee] 27/2/2020 16:50

Not much help for those who are not on Twitter.

[onceatrader] 27/2/2020 16:28

James Fisher's Middle-East impairment

[roddiemac2] 27/2/2020 16:10

illis,

True to form, you have covered the results extremely well.

"The cyber event turns out to have been something of a nonevent - at least from the perspective of anything being stolen. But the response to the event has delayed ability to invoice and bring in funds in Q4". ---I spoke briefly about this with the company secretary ( all other directors being busy )---He said that they had caught up with the problem, and that the effect either way would be marginal ( the difference between delayed receivables and payments due by FSJ ).

I think there is still a lot of potential here.

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2020 10:39

Roddie,

just seen your post, I was busy reading and writing for a while. Very good idea to bed and ISA at this price. I still have another set of results to go through this morning.

SFR and MGNS have both been on my radar - but I never quite bought. Thank you for mentioning them. I like the look of SFR now and I like the long term business of MGNS.

I don't have much to offer in return, two of my favourite shares, Haynes(HYNS) and Science Systems(SSY) have recently been bought out for cash. so I am rather short of ideas, I am looking for technology and/or software companies in growth areas to replace them. I quite like Elecosoft (ELCO) and Vianet (VNET) but they are not cheap and together with the rest of my tinpots will either turn out to be inspired or dogs. Not for widows or orphans as they say. Talking of tinpots I rather like MSI, for its eclectic mix of Naval Cannon, Fork lift forgings and petrol station superstructures. As above it may turn out to be inspired or a dog.

cheers

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2020 09:25

Ha ha, spoke too soon and I see that the bounce to 1850 has been reversed swiftly in the face of the market freefall - now getting ready to buy again below 1800,

deep joy

cheers

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2020 09:16

Well the results are out.

The headline figures are not all delightful.

Revenue +10%
Operating Profit - 10%
Statutory eps - 18%
Dividend + 10%

The company also presents underlying figures for profit as usual

underlying operating profit +7%
underlying eps +4%

which they state is a better guide to the performance of the businesses.

So whats going on?

According to the trading update in November

'Whilst modestly below the Board's expectations, profit before tax for the full year is expected to be ahead of last year (2018: £56.1m)'

Which it isn't at £47.8m.

Reading more deeply I see it as a tale of acquisitions, capital investment, a cyber event and a new CEO.

During the year they bought 3 businesses for £14.4 million and invested £90m in two new saturated dive support ships and a 35kT tanker on a 5 year contract to the Royal Navy.

So far so good, except that the tanker only contributed to 1/2 the year and the two dive support ships effectively come on line at the beginning of the current year.

The cyber event turns out to have been something of a nonevent - at least from the perspective of anything being stolen. But the response to the event has delayed ability to invoice and bring in funds in Q4.

It turns out that they did buy 60% of another business in the middle east. I must admit to having misgivings at the time, but judged the price paid to just about affordable in the event that it turned out to be a big mistake. It turns out virtually all the missing £10m in profits is due to writing down the cost of this adventure to zero and presumably the legal costs of sorting it out as well.

As there was no indication of this in the november trading statement I rather suspect the new CEO is behind the move to dump this operation immediately. Whilst admittedly this does have the effect of a kitchen sink exercise and making future gains rosier - I do rather approve of the no nonsense approach, not dragging out the affair and removing a distraction.

It may turn out that they regain some of the money paid - they may not - whatever, thats a side issue and a bonus.

The real story is that the £100m capital investment should kick in now and together with some held over invoices provide a good start to the current year - all other things being equal, which they never are, could point towards an upbeat trading statement and a good set of interims?

Looking briefly at the divisional performance

Marine Support appears to have been the big disappointment with revenue slightly up and profit, margin and return on capital all down.

The return on capital is useful as it gives a guide to the expected contribution from the 56M spent on the two new saturated dive ships (and saturated diving is a whole different ball game from jumping in off a rib - the capital employed makes it a very select market) they should be able to return around 20% ie operating profit of around 11m annually. Things can always go wrong of course!

Specialist Technical - was also down, but here all measures are slightly down and reading between the lines this looks like a prior year comparison with standout figures on the delivery of two submarine rescue systems and perhaps the long term falloff delay in nuclear demcomissioning - which in the UK has been something of a mismanaged nightmare over recent years.

Offshore Oil - after several years of underperformance this looks to have hit the groove again with equipment and personnel utilisation well up and the particular busines of RMSpumptools very much in demand. Some signs of working outside traditional markets geoghraphically and also in providing equipment to offshore wind projects.

Tankships - up again. And what a gem. Return on Capital employed 40%. Condering the new tanker cost £8.8m that's an interesting figure.

Conclusion - not what I'd hoped for on the surface, but raising the covers and looking underneath it appears to be working better than I'd hoped. I'm relieved.

I'm never happy with jam tomorrow - I prefer lots of it, right now, but patient investment in this share has paid off over many years for me and they appear to be making all the right investments, and even learning quickly from their mistakes, for this to continue.

So I am happy to continue buying - especially at the low 1800's but I see that in the time its taken me to type this up, I've missed my chance this morning. No matter I already have plenty and can afford to wait. Either to buy more in the short term or for a positive trading statement in a few months,

cheers

[roddiemac2] 27/2/2020 08:39

illis,

I did a bed and ISA deal on 800 shares this morning . This uses up most of my capital gains allowance,and adds to FSJ in my ISA at what I consider to be a good price.

I will comment on the results later.

[roddiemac2] 26/2/2020 10:14

Hello illis,

Yes, it seems as though the Chinese problem is causing panic.If markets fall a lot, the good companies will fall with the bad. Markets being arguably overpriced, it was not going to take much to push them down. I also have a list of companies to buy or top up if prices become attractive. I like MGNS and SFR. I have a holding in the latter, but MGNS got away from me this year.

[illiswilgig] 26/2/2020 09:45

Hi Roddie,

looks like I pushed the buy button a bit early? But I didn't want to miss the party?


Still can't see a particular reason for FSJ to be badly affected. Be happy to be corrected on this? Seems less reliant upon China than most. But the shareprice is always quite volatile.

I think the coronavirus panic might be pushing the market into a full blown fear of recession in which cae a correction is more likely.

In my view that enhances the likelihood of indiscriminate downratings.

Might take a few weeks for things to become much clearer, There are a few holdings that I plan to topup in tranches as the market falls - and FSJ is one.

As Warren Buffet said, be Fearful when others are greedy - and greedy when others are fearful!

cheers

[roddiemac2] 25/2/2020 20:44

illis,

I agree with your comment on the coronavirus.

FSJ is still my largest holding.

[illiswilgig] 25/2/2020 13:19

Yes indeed. Couldn't resist it, been helping myself to a few more at mid 1800's.

To be fair it was last at this price in Nov19, and before that in Oct19 and before that in Jun19. I see from the headlines that the FTSE100 is revisiting levels of last October so it seems about right - but why FSJ would be thought to be exposed to coronavirus I don't know?

FSJ remains my no1 holding.

cheers

[bouleversee] 25/2/2020 12:44

Rather a nasty drop today.

[roddiemac2] 25/2/2020 12:24

Results will be on Thursday.

[bouleversee] 10/1/2020 23:03

Thanks, Roddie and the same to you.

I wonder if the new ceo is going to be any good. I had a pretty good yesr last year despite a few horrors.