Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[emeraldzebra] 05/3/2018 10:54

Roddie - interested to hear your views on mine above. I think it's actually algorithm activity.

[roddiemac2] 02/3/2018 09:21

Phillis is almost certainly right about the market makers.They regularly have a field day here ,in flurries of small trades.

There were three large trades 1459p. on Wednesday.

[bouleversee] 01/3/2018 16:01

There's probably little volume because few want to sell. My family are certainly hanging on to ours.

[phillis] 01/3/2018 15:12

roddie
IF I were a holder something would need to be more obvious for me to sell

I am not a buyer because I feel there is nothing extra in the valuation

The MMs march the share price up and down on v little volume - actually pathetically little

Have a look at Dechra for a REAL growth stock with a fancy rating

[emeraldzebra] 01/3/2018 10:01

Roddie
You make a v good point about the consistency of the company's results. Is it a bit strange therefore, that the share price is characterised by such extraordinary volatility ? I suppose this not a bad thing as it allows adding on the dips. There seems to be a lot of algorithm trading too - deals that involve just single digit trades. All very out of keeping with a very nice and steady performance over a long time. Still seem on the cheap side to me.

[roddiemac2] 28/2/2018 16:58

Phillis ,

After today`s strong rise in good volume ,I guess you have changed your stance from " fancy rating " to extra virgin fancy .

[roddiemac2] 28/2/2018 16:37

illiswilgig,

Well done for adding recently.

I don`t have much to add to what you have already said. My stance remains strong hold .

On the 13/2/18 , over on Shareprice, I said this :- " Their strategy of diversification ( both geographic and by product or service offering ) has enabled the company to compensate for the downturn in Offshore Oil. "---They have done well to achieve this. As Offshore Oil has diminished, so Marine Support has increased. Today we have the announcement that Fergus Graham is being promoted to the BOD, and will be in charge of Marine Support from 1/3/18---: preparation for growth to come?

They have consistently increased the dividend in double digits for more than 20 years ; I think it is 21 or 22 now.

[illiswilgig] 28/2/2018 11:07

Phillis,

your criticisms of debt growing and ROCE deteoriating are accurate. As is your comment regarding eps growth over 4 years.

With my hindsight goggles firmly in place I can see that the company managed sweet FA growth in eps. Provided of course, that you pick the right year to compare with. Let's say 4 years ago just before the collapse in oil prices caused the eps to decline for one year?

So is that your forward looking forecast for this year? Another 1p or 2p on eps?

Of course if you pick the last 3 years instead then the eps growth looks different. Closer to 10% a year. The main division, almost 50% of sales, is currently growing at 17% a year. So you pays your money and takes your choice.

But whichever historical period you pick it's going to be a poor guide to whatever happens in the next 12months?

It will be interesting to see how it works out, especially as I have put my money on one outcome,

cheers

Illis

[phillis] 27/2/2018 11:49

yes indeed illis

eps over last four years has barely changed despite the regular acquistions
debt growing and ROCE deteriorating

Still a fancy rating for a pedestrian business performance

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2018 09:35

Good Morning all!

Results for 2017 out this morning.

Sales £505m (+10%)
Underlying pre-tax profit £50.3m (+10%)
Underlying diluted eps 81.4p (+7%)
total dividend 28.7p (+10%)
Statutory pre-tax profit £49m (+9%)
Statutory eps 79.5p (+1%)

I have to admit that's better than I expected and considerably better than I feared. Not that it will be enough to please the market - very little is at the moment.

No doubt those of a more negative outlook will focus upon the 1% increase in statutory eps.

I'm never happy with negative free cashflow. Though in this case it was flagged in advance and is tied up in the Indian Submarine Rescue contract. The reversal of this during 2018 (all going well) will itself help to increase both cashflow and profit.

Seems that the Marine Support division increased profits by 17% and is now almost 50% of the sales. Seems to have started the new year well and is expected to continue to drive growth.

Specialist technical is acknowledged to have 'lumpy' profits so I'd translate that as meaning any increase in profitability will depend upon winning new contracts to replace the Indian one.

Tankships seems to very profitable but not much growth potential? Been a cash cow for a long time now.

Which leaves off-shore oil. Now a small part of the group (10% of turnover) and low profitability. They acknowledge a pick up in orders - but we've been here before so the caution on the outlook is understood. Nevertheless it remains the case that a small recovery in sales should boost profitability of this significantly.

Buried in the Chairman's statement is a reference to a normal annual growth in profits above 10%. Putting this in the outlook statement would be a hostage to fortune. In the chairmans statement I see this an aim. With Marine Support motoring I expect 10%+ growth in profits in the current year. Providing Specialist Technical and Offshore Oil don't misfire and significantly higher if they do bring in new projects to these divisions.

cheers

[illiswilgig] 22/2/2018 17:35

Did I say it would? I don't think so.

I agree that such a small acquisition will have zero effect now. Small acquisitions that they made a long time ago now form the core of an FTSE250 (at the moment) company. Whether this one has any impact in the future, time will tell

cheers

[phillis] 22/2/2018 16:13

Tiddlers don't give impact

[illiswilgig] 22/2/2018 15:32

Ooops! Nice to be proven right I suppose? But in this case 'twould have been better to have been proven wrong :-)

BTW - the tiddler acquisition not only expands their product range but gives them a strategic foothold in Australia I think. Handy for their Singaporean activities?

as usual time will tell.

and in the meantime looking just like that cheap topup opportunity!

cheers

[roddiemac2] 19/2/2018 22:20

Ilka mickle maks a muckle.

[phillis] 19/2/2018 14:22

yet another tiddler

[illiswilgig] 18/2/2018 13:27

Ha ha!

Amazing how one's strategy can go from brilliant to rubbish and back to brilliant again at the whim of the market :-) Will probably change again on Monday morning. Every possibility that there will be further opportunities for a cheap topup yet.

cheers

[bouleversee] 16/2/2018 20:36

LOL, Roddie. However, it appears I really have missed the boat for a cheap top up. Too busy dealing with other pesky things to take action. I wonder why there was such a big leap today, just as I wondered why there was such a big drop earlier. Doh!

Ours not to reason why, ours just to blame the traders, mms and algorithms, anyone but ourselves.

Have a good weekend. Hope your garden is in a better state than mine.

[roddiemac2] 16/2/2018 20:00

bouleversee,

Over on shareprice they show this for FSJ at the close:---

14.987 -1,409.0193 (-98.94% )

We appear to have missed the boat !

[bouleversee] 14/2/2018 18:57

Roddie -

If I include all the ones I have given away to children and grandchildren, it's my largest too by a wide margin, though the astronomic gain with vpc is closing the gap.. I also drive an old car, good enough for taking all the garden rubbish to the dump and going to the supermarket which is about as far as I get now. Sad.

[roddiemac2] 14/2/2018 17:07

illiswilgig,

No expensive cars for me. I drive a short wheelbase Mercedes Sprinter van :bought new, now 15 years old. I converted it into a windowless camper ( sleeping capsule / very well insulated ). It beats driving a car ; I get a lovely view from the cab, and It is currently very useful carrying rubbish to the local dump. It got us down to France and Spain for the duration of last winter. I don`t bother about scratches , just the rust patches.

I am tempted to buy a few more FSJ. At some point they are likely to do better .Like yourself, and forddrive over on shareprice, FSJ is my largest holding .

bouleversee,

The current share price may be a consequence of the mood in the market as a whole. There is no reason, that I know of, to believe there is bad news in the pipeline. Daily volume has tended to be low , and mostly made up of small trades.

Yours,

white van man

[bouleversee] 14/2/2018 10:56

Roddiemac -

Yes, I was pulling your legs; I did know those prices were crazy. What idiots run these sites and put pounds instead of pence?

To be serious though, FSJ have come back rather more than most. Is there anything to worry about before I top up, in the absence of any better prospects I can think of? I note Illis's comments about windfarms; there will also be a lot of decommissioning of oil rigs so I don't understand why the price is so low.

I also note Illis. has sold his GKN. I have a reasonably large holding and wondering what to do about it in view of the Melrose offer. Probably would have made more sense to sell as soon as they came on the scene as the share price has come back a bit since then. I have to decide whether to accept the Melrose offer (and which option) by March 5; am sitting on my hands pro tem.

With CLLN, IRV, IMB, the utilities and countless other disasters my p/f is well down.

[bouleversee] 13/2/2018 20:07

The share price is going to have to motor somewhat to give you a gain on your recent purchase, illiswilgig. According to Digital Look's new website, FSJ's share price has dropped £48 in the past week, £260 in the past month and £198 in the past year.
No wonder Roddie's reduced to doing up an old wreck! I'm feeling like one myself. LOL.

[illiswilgig] 31/1/2018 23:16

I have topped up below 1500p recently despite FSJ currently being my 3rd largest holding, though it keeps swapping around with Man Group (EMG) and Boohoo (Boo) at the moment for pole position as my largest holding.

I may sell my topup in a couple of months to help realise some of the large amounnt of capital gains that have built up over the last 15+ years.

Roddi - I did take note of your comment about CML and am quite impressed and so took a small position before the most recent leg upwards. Thanks.

cheers

Illiswilgig