Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 10/1/2019 11:07

Another year begins and Fisher is on the acquisition trail again, this time Martek and 60% of MSMC

Have to say that I am not that wildly keen on the Gulf, but I suppose if you are developing a global marine services business it's a necessary evil? Looks like a hefty profit related element to this payment and the 40% retained share should motivate the current management to succeed?


Martek

Martek was founded in Rotherham in 2000 and provides a range of innovative safety and calibration systems and products to the marine sector. Unaudited profit after tax, of Martek for the year ended 28 February 2018 was £1.8m and gross assets were £7.2m.

MSMC

MSMC, which was established in 2010 by Abdullah Akbar Natheer and is headquartered in Al Khobar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, provides near shore marine construction and maintenance services. Audited profit after tax of MSMC for the year ended 31 December 2017 was £1.4m and unaudited gross assets were £10.0m. The 40% minority interest of MSMC has been retained by Mr Natheer who James Fisher will work with to grow MSMC and secure a leadership position in its chosen markets.

[roddiemac2] 21/12/2018 13:11

Economies of scale:-

When asked how has offshore wind become so much more competitive, Mathew Wright said- "Good old fashioned economies of scale, and the benefit of experience. The projects are getting bigger and so are the turbines. back in 1991, the height of a turbine was about half the size of Big Ben. Our new turbines at Burbo Bank Extension are 195 metres tall , and stand twice as high as Big Ben.

Mathew also made the point that there has been innovation in every area. " Take the foundation of a turbine. A lot of steel goes into maintaining them . We have worked with academics at Oxford University and other institutions to reduce the amount of steel, while maintaining the longevity and structural integrity. " Other more recent innovations include the use of drones for inspection purposes, and ROVs sub-sea.

Fisher is still my largest holding.

[mw8156] 20/12/2018 20:36

take your points, you have obviously looked into this carefully, have to say that solar will be the first to reach grid parity projected in 2020, and offshore wind or tidal will likely always be the most expensive for the foreseeable future,

the drawback to all these renewables will be that without battery storage they can't be relied on to provide the Uk baseload, though in years to come this may well be developed; bit like the basal bolus insulin regimen that many people with diabetes are on,including Teresa May, the renewables are good for bolus not basal.

However as a shareholder in fsj since 2007, i agree with your point;they should be able to do good business in offshore here and abroad.

[illiswilgig] 20/12/2018 16:57

mw8156 - that wasn't my point. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

It's slightly the reverse.

Offshore wind remains more expensive largely because it costs much more to install and maintain the infrastructire.

It follows that there is more business to be won in maintaining offshore windfarms than onshore wind farms - if they get built.

The recent halving of the bid price in this years CfD auctions means that a vast amount of new offshore capacity will now be built.

Fisher have been quietly building capability for supporting offshore windfarms. Which now looks to have been a good move and puts Fisher ahead of the game which could yield an excellent business in coming years.

Onshore remains much cheaper. This week UK Wind announced they will fund the construction of the Douglas West onshore farm on a subsidy free basis. At 24MW its not one of the smaller onshore wind farms.

But it's peanuts against the 630MW London Array which started generating in 2013 (Fisher have won significant maintance contracts on all phases of the London Array) and even tinier against the 1.2GW monsters like Hornsea which won funding in this years CfD auction.

Offshore wind has two big advantages over onshore wind in the UK. The wind is higher speed and more constant.

Also It's possible to site the largest turbines optimally. Three main reasons.

Huge areas of shallow sites with firm ground are available around the UK (just for once Norway is at a disadvantage which is why they are spending a fortune to develop floating turbines!). Four main reasons.

And seabirds don't have votes unlike people living next door to onshore windfarms. Ok five main reasons.

So offshore wind doesn't need to be cheaper than onshore wind - it just needs to be cheap enough that it's worth building. For Fishers market to grow enormously. This years auction makes that almost certain.

My own view is that the very large economies of scale for these projects will continue to drive down the costs. Conversely onshore farms will become more expensive as local residents force environmental mitigation for vibration, noise and turbulence. In one recent case this has led to the refusal of renewed planning permission at end of life.

We could see UK offshore wind energy exported to the rest of Europe. In which case Fisher is in a good position to win an increasing slice of a rapidly increasing maintenance and support business.

I emphasise that's a 'could' not a will. But business is about taking risks and Fisher's decision to build capability in this market is already looking much less risky than 5 years ago when they started out - and now looks to have much larger potential than it did then.

Can't really comment on ground mounted Solar PV. Especially as its been windy and raining all day and all night. And tomorrow is the shortest day. But thats the UK. Nice summer mind you - when wind was 6% below forecast budgets. So what goes around comes around. In addition Solar PV farms look to suffer similar planning constraint issues to onshore wind. Making them cheaper won't result in a lot more because they won't get planning permission.

If you're looking to boost Europe's Solar PV capacity, for latitude, cloud cover, and lack of permissible sites the UK is not really the goto place. It is for offshore wind.

Just my opinion,

cheers

[mw8156] 20/12/2018 14:26

can't see it ever being as cheap as onshore or, in particular, ground mounted solar...

[illiswilgig] 20/12/2018 14:16

According to news reports renewables created 33% of UK power over the 3 months from july to september - and during this weeks storm wind power generated 15GW on Tuesday.

With offshore generating costs falling rapidly and the shallow seas around the UK a prime platform for wind farms it looks as if offshore wind will be expanding rapidly for some time to come?

Very nice to see Fisher shares rising against the market and macro conditions. Moved up to my no1 holding today. A rare ray of sunshine in this dire end of year so far,

cheers

Illis

[roddiemac2] 20/12/2018 12:38

Nice to see Fisher still bringing in the bacon:- announced yesterday, £30 million pound submarine rescue contract.

In September this year, Mathew Wright the UK managing director of Orsted , when asked how big can offshore wind be as a source of energy , said this :- "A report produced last year by BVG Assciates looked at the North Sea and Baltic Sea to provide power to the European union.In their High-case scenario, there were enough developable sites to provide power to the EU 1.8 times over. There are a lot of sites with tremendous potential. Ideally you need somewhere offshore that is shallow, but with high wind speeds. Our goal here is to generate 30 gigawatts by 2030. that equates to a third of UK energy consumption.----Offshore wind can be the backbone of the UK energy system. It is already a mainstream technology. Our vision is ,to create a world that runs entirely on green energy, and offshore wind is at the heart of that mission."

Fisher,with its many capabilities is well placed to profit from the steady increase in offshore wind.

[illiswilgig] 29/8/2018 10:39

Hi roddie,

yes indeed, I am very pleased. If only I got to read results like that every morning!

Despite the usual caution the Board sound very optimistic.

Nice little uptick in dividend as well.

I note that off-shore oil, whilst apparently stabilised, is still at very low levels so plenty of scope for improvement here. The low level of profitability implies to me that there is unused capacity here. Presumeably in the UK area - so any uptick here should increase profitability rapidly.

Tankships seems to be thriving at the moment. Better than I expected.

Good progress with the windfarm maintenance contracts as well.

While this is all very good I did seem that there is still an overall cash outflow, buying new tankers, funding projects and developments - leading to an increase in net debt. I look forward to this reversing rapidly at the year end, increasing the profitability and giving scope for more acquisitions which are no doubt on the horizon!!!

cheers

[roddiemac2] 29/8/2018 07:52

Results are positive on all fronts . Long term holders should be pleased: more later today.

[roddiemac2] 16/7/2018 19:56

Hello illis

Up over £19 during today`s trading in the usual plethora of very small trades. I agree, the BOD don`t do unfounded optimism ( similarly at CML ). It is rarely so warm at sea as on land, so the continuing fine weather should have been favourable for any contract related to rig maintenance or servicing. We know that even mothballed rigs need maintenance.

[illiswilgig] 13/7/2018 08:36

Well. With the share price up over 1800p again today, this board seems resolutely determinded not to take note of the recent strength.

Another 6 weeks or so to the interims, but with the period end of June the board likely already have a good view of their progress.

The AGM statement at the start of May was quietly confident (the Co is not prone to unbounded optimism)

'Looking ahead, all four of our divisions appear well set with Marine Support and Offshore Oil leading the way. The Board therefore believes that the Group's outlook for the year is positive and that James Fisher continues to be well placed to provide further growth and value for shareholders. '

Quite a change to see 'Offshore Oil leading the way' and I rather suspect the recent share price strength is looking to interims above expectations by a tad,

cheers

[emeraldzebra] 05/4/2018 09:15

Roddie. i think you have hit the nail on the head. Spotty teenager/maybe, market makers whacking the price with no background reason....hoping for a minor panic from holders and then stocking up on the cheap.

[roddiemac2] 05/4/2018 09:05

The following is the last paragraph from an article on stock market statistics--
"Trying to identify the number of active private investors with non trivial holdings in the UK is somewhat problematic, but looking at the readership of publications such as Investors Chronicle and tip sheets that appeal to such investors, it is probably at best a few hundred thousand although some may simply rely on their stockbrokers for information (they may even hold “discretionary” accounts), or do not actively trade. There are also an unquantifiable number of execution only traders who trade actively but move in and out of the market – in other words who are short term speculators. These may even trade in CFDs or via spread betting so do not appear in any of the above statistics."

Worth a read:--
hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/investor-academy/advanced-topics/uk-stock-market-statistics/

There may be a pool of very small active investors/ short term traders who account for much of the daily activity in many shares . The internet has made it possible for anyone to trade cheaply and easily. I know of a schoolboy who regularly trades with very small amounts : why not? A tax inspector told me that they get people whose tax returns include hundreds of small deals a year.

[bouleversee] 05/4/2018 08:37

Me neither. One would have expected the share price to rise y'day as buyers would want to get the div. and that it would have gone down today when it went x-d but the reverse has happened. I shall bide my time now as regards the selling till the price has recovered and may buy more if the price comes down again and I will use limit orders now the end of year deadline is past.

[emeraldzebra] 05/4/2018 08:23

....can not get

[emeraldzebra] 05/4/2018 07:48

yes - as u will have seen - i have been grumbling about this for years, (thanks your understanding) - on this one, and still can not to get to the route cause of it ! And all this volatility in a company which has shown remarkable steadiness in its results over a long time.

[illiswilgig] 05/4/2018 07:04

Good morning,

I don't pay much if any attention to trades, so can't really comment.

But it is the last day of the tax year, so if you are right tomorrow should see an end to those tiny trades.

cheers

[bouleversee] 04/4/2018 16:16

I had the same problem trying to buy 500 in my son's ISA which in some ways I can understand more as there is not a lot of volume. Again, I let it go so we've missed the dividend on that one.

Can you understand people buying/selling 11 or fewer shares? Perhaps that's the MMs getting rid of the differentials when people bed and isa-ing and end up with fewer shares for their money.

I really don't understand what was going today unless it was just the end of tax year b&i deals which threw the market. The share price ought to go down further tomorrow when it goes x-d.

[illiswilgig] 04/4/2018 15:28

Boule,

Yes weird isn't it. I've noticed recently with the increased volatility that on line sales are often rejected. Selling seems a lot more prone to this than buying. Particularly on down days. I even had trouble selling some HSBC shares this week. But a few minutes later it all worked - and I got a better price. Fisher has such low volumes I'm not suprised its worse.

Like you chose in this instance I either trade online or I don't trade.

Good luck,

cheers

[emeraldzebra] 04/4/2018 11:46

apols double post

[emeraldzebra] 06/3/2018 09:05

Thanks vm Roddie.

[roddiemac2] 05/3/2018 14:58

emerald,

Whilst I understand the basics of algorithms ( having just read up on them ! ), I have no idea how prevalent they are in day to day trading in any one stock. In that respect , I am an old dog who can`t be taught new tricks.

How things have changed. When I first bought shares over fifty years ago, I used to speak occasionally to a partner in E.B. Savory Miln. He would recommend a few investments ,and confirm those in writing to me. I would choose one or two, and act on his advice; that advice was always good. As a very small fish, I was lucky to have this contact. My boss was his nephew. It was not until many years later that I had adequate savings to invest larger amounts, but my earlier experience stood me in good stead.

I don`t pay much heed to daily price movements , unless they are accompanied by good volume. I try to concentrate on the story.