Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[mike bulldog] 10/11/2020 12:42

Cheers , and Good Luck.

[mike bulldog] 10/11/2020 12:40

Shares were black now red , sorry .
Im am an Engineer , the world can't function without the service and manufacturing industry , it will never go out of fashion.
Only 50.5 million shares in issue , once we get back to normal this will recover , Its just a short term blip.

[mike bulldog] 10/11/2020 12:36

Big Buy 669,91 at 10:17 for 87,800 share , well over sold imho

[porsche1945] 10/11/2020 12:22

Been in and out of this company a few times around the 11 mark for trading, was not in at mo for heavy drop thank god, I dont like it anymore, it isnt a growth company and its not a dividend company, the risk is all to the downside. Buying this sort of stuff on a hated index like the ftse 350 in a selfharming brexit/covid basket case like the U.K. is just too risky these days, I would say take the hit, get out, and recycle into S&P trackers and quality EM stocks with growth where you can sleep at night. I think Fisher is a bit like UK in general, best days are long gone.

[bouleversee] 10/11/2020 12:22

A long way off their year high of 2190. Can't see them getting back to that in a hurry.

[mike bulldog] 10/11/2020 10:55

bought into FSJ only 50.4 million shares , the shares will bounce , Good Luck

[bouleversee] 09/11/2020 13:36

Amazing what an effect news of a successful vaccine has. Already on the way back up. Now I know what to do when my shares go down: just spout some gloomy rubbish.

[bouleversee] 09/11/2020 12:40

Illis -

Well, maybe I am going completely ga-ga but I seem to remember reading that they had received bonuses after our dividend had been suspended and was rather peeved. They would have been for 2019 of course. I don't keep records of such things and haven't time to backtrack other than going on to the LSE which mentioned that bonuses had been deferred till July but didn't go into details. I hadn't read this before so maybe I'd read it in the Annual Report, dunno. As you say, they have made a commendable gesture over the deferred pay which I hadn't read about. I'm obviously not receiving all their reports. No idea how the loss of salary compares with the bonuses.



I must say I have thought for some time that the p/e ratio was too high to justify further purchase and in view of the total family holdings I don't think I am going to rush in now either. I am only losing profits but my son is losing capital, on paper, in his ISA so I do hope it recovers at some point; may not be in my lifetime, though.

[illiswilgig] 09/11/2020 11:33

Essential Investor -

'Is debt a potential issue here?.'

Good question. Not yet, though its above where I would normally be comfortable. Potentially yes.

Debt has grown in recent years as acquisitions made. All acceptable providing that the acquisitions prospered. That may turn out to be questionable in the marine support division at least. In my view (stated before) they made some poor acquisition and investment decisions here in the last couple of years.

H1 net debt stated as £173m down from £203m at the start of the period - but that is flattered by deferred tax, pension and salary payments. Despite that it's up from £159m at the end of the previous years H1

Certainly something that I will be watching. I suspect that the company is also - as there have been none of the usual statements about opportune acquisitions this time around.

cheers

[illiswilgig] 09/11/2020 10:03

Boule -

Personally I don't like bonuses. I don't regard them as bonuses. After the first year they are just part of the pay packet disguised, is my experience from Industry. But they have become endemic. It seems that every company awards them?

So I've looked for the bonuses.

There is a bonus policy in place for 2020. No bonus for any part of 2020 has been announced. It seems highly improbable to me that any of the conditions will be met for a bonus to be awarded, so it would be hard to waive. Some businesses may have prospered through the pandemic and so there may be bonuses to be waived?

Though they could make the point I suppose. Something along the lines of 'I waive the bonus I can't be awarded' Certainly something to watch.

So what bonus payments are you referring to? Bonus payments were made in previous years according to performance.

As far as I can find out the current CEO Eoghan O'Lionaird (and that took some typing ) has not yet been awarded a bonus - so he can't waive it?

It is also fair to note that during Q2 2020 when a lot of UK staff were furloughed and the company deferred 20% of pay the Board also deferred 20% of pay which is fair. The deferred staff salaries were paid in Q3 but the board waived their payment of 20%. Fair is fair. This should be recognised. I don't know of many other boards that did this. Just saying.

So I can't find bonus payments to be waived? And I can find deferred salary payments of 20% that have been waived? You seem to think that there are bonuses, perhaps large ones, that should be waived? Perhaps you could point me to them?


cheers

Illis

[essentialinvestor] 09/11/2020 09:39

Is debt a potential issue here?.

[illiswilgig] 09/11/2020 09:24

I agree that the trading statement was not all that disastrous. But times are hard as we know. The share had been highly rated at more than 20x earnings in the expectation of future growth. That future growth is at least delayed and may be viewed as less likely, or not.

It may well be rated at that level again in the future, but today's market is much more 'show me the money'. Anything else gets punished.

In the meantime its not unreasonable to expect a lower multiple on current earnings when the market is less than optimistic?

Forecasts have been reduced over the weekend. Now expected to be 53p in 2020.

An earnings multiple of 14x gives a shareprice of 742p.

Almost there, and the price is still drifting down so may well get there. Looks like a 'buyers strike' to me. The trading statement gave no reason to buy and will selling still happening why not wait for a better price tomorrow?? I am.

To relieve the gloom a tad. The forecast for 2021 is now 73p (down from 83p) would be a rating of 10x earnings at 740p - which starts to look cheap. If you believe that there is not another profit warning on the way? Frankly I am not sure, and I can certainly see a big write off of assets on the way in an effort to get all the bad news out of the door with this years results?

Beyond that I don't see that the business model of the company is broken. The ability of the company to acquire new companies so freely is probably less and there will be more empahsis on organic growth. The demand for its products and services will be growing and the company is moving towards new growth markets. I expect this trend to accelerate.

I remain optimistic in the medium to longterm, but I have clearly been guilty of over optimism in the past. So what do I know?

cheers

Illis

[bouleversee] 06/11/2020 14:24

Illis - I did say "or" freebie options. I couldn't remember exactly what they had received, just that I was surprised they hadn't waived the right to it in the circumstances as indeed I have noted several firms doing this year. I haven't yet checked what they did get but I do know that the dividends we received were 32.6p last year and only 8 p this year. Don't forget they are getting a good salary as well whereas apart from a minuscule state pension some pensioners may be relying entirely on dividends for their retirement income and even if they are not drawing it yet, are relying on them to build up their pension funds. Also remember that loss of dividends, whether for pensioners/investors or the incorporated self-employed have not received any govt. compensation but as taxpayers we will be paying off over future years the cost of furlough etc. for others. Leaving out that between us my family has a pretty large holding in FSJ, I just think it looks bad for the directors to be taking bonuses (and wouldn't the dividend we had to forego in April or whenever for the previous year as well as the bonuses?) when shareholders have had to accept a huge loss of income.

I see Sainsbury's is being slated by a Times journalist for paying dividends (what does he think pensioners live on?) but at least the new CEO had the decency to waive his bonus which was the right thing to do.

As for the future, goodness knows what we can expect. Oil seems to have had its day and there is a lot of uncertainty about the windfarms. I don't know enough about the current leadership to form any opinion as to whether they have the nous and drive to get over this hurdle but hanging on to their bonuses suggests to me that they are more interested in lining their own pockets than rewarding more needy shareholders and it wouldn't totally surprise me if they agreed to be taken over by some foreign company at a price based on today's low value as has just happened with another of my holdings. Perhaps I am just suffering from depression; I do have a lot to be depressed about!

Incidentally, I didn't think the trading statement was sufficiently gloomy to warrant such a severe drop but what do I know?

[3800] 06/11/2020 12:35

Salpara you say "seems to be an overreaction" what folward p/e would you think would be reasonable and what ratio cheap?

[salpara111] 06/11/2020 12:20

Thats some serious drop! I had been thinking the drop was overdone at 900 and was going to make a cheeky day trade but just nipped out to get some milk and found it had sunk again.....seems to be an overreaction but I'm just going to sit on the sidelines for now.

[liam1om] 06/11/2020 12:03

Kinwah - They had a Trading Update this morning.

[gilesy] 06/11/2020 11:41

having bought these previously earlier in 2020 at a near time high price I have averaged down my purchase costs by buying a small chunk at 8.40p. I am hopeful earnings position and share price will improve in the next year assuming covid situation improves. good luck to all holders

[kinwah] 06/11/2020 11:19

Surprising fall with no hard news. I think a Biden victory will strengthen the US commitment to NATO and acting as the world's peace keeper. As a consequence it would give the UK government an opportunity to slash defence spending particularly on the Royal Navy. Maybe this explains the weakness.

[illiswilgig] 06/11/2020 10:59

Our Haven - Agreed!

[our haven] 06/11/2020 10:55

It has stopped for another breather and let's hope that that is the floor. Just going to hold for now as I am uncertain of which direction it is going to go now.

[illiswilgig] 06/11/2020 10:40

Hello Boule - What a horrible morning!

I think we agree. In many cases the large bonuses and free options are not justified. It seems to be rampant these days.

As I remember it any bonuses paid this year relate to the company performance in FY2019, which was ok, and propelled the shareprice to well above £20. Unfortunately that didn't last as we now know.

I don't know how you can take back bonuses for work that was well done and met the criteria on the basis of later events that are not connected? Contractually they are probably impossible not to pay?

Sadly its not the same with dividends. As owners we come well down the list. Our contract does not require a dividend to be paid. Part of the problem is perception. Unlike salaries, bonuses and dividends are all paid well in arrears by when the reason for their payment may no longer be clear.

I very much doubt there will be any bonuses for 2020. there certainly should not be - and to be fair the directors did take a 20% pay cut during Q2, something that few boards have done?

I'm not aware of any free options? Perhaps you could point me to them?

I do see that in September the CEO purchased 4327 shares at 1128p (or there abouts) so you could argue that he had (or perhaps even still has) confidence in the value at that price?

None of which helps negate the markets reaction to the lack of good news at the company.

Whilst desparately trying to sit on my hands this morning I have first considered selling my holding. I am now possibly thinking of a small topup purchase, but hopefully will do nothing, Working out what will happen in this market is not my strong point! and sadly I see other opportunities where the positive news flow is much better (though there are certainly much worse if you are invested in old economy shares),

cheers

Mark

[illiswilgig] 06/11/2020 10:13

Ow! Thats Painful. And still going down.

[bouleversee] 06/11/2020 09:29

Blimey, that's a big drop. IIRC the directors were oaying themselves large bonuses or free options recently. How can this be justified?

[salpara111] 06/11/2020 09:02

I was waiting for the update, the share price was already pretty much at the bottom of its trading range but given its exposure to oil and gas I didnt have the confidence to push the button.
There is a decent business here but I guess the big question is whether the oil and gas industry is now in long term decline. As someone who works in the automotive sector, I dont see a big decline in demand for liquid fuel until we get a step change in battery tech. Car sales growth over the next decade is going to be driven by developing markets but the cost and product limitations of pure electric vehicles mean they will be nothing more than a niche product for the foreseeable future.
In short, oil demand will remain pretty robust over the next decade so still hope here.