Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[superiorshares] 20/8/2023 21:50

Ouch ... maybe 15 pound not 😀
China is Tanking head for cover !

[superiorshares] 31/7/2023 17:49

Nice to see the 100 new license for the North Sea .
3- 4 years . Fisher £ 15 +

[superiorshares] 07/7/2023 21:27

Porsche1945
Problem with your theory your giving your kids what's happened in the past , not the potential future .
Of course everything is now AI .. this will turn out to be a nothing just like the millennium bug , Crypto etc .
Will oil be around when your kids are old and Grey ... I reckon so

[porsche1945] 04/7/2023 17:05

what junk this share is even by dog index of the world uk standards, if youre giving shares to your kids….its msft and apple, not hopeless capital destructive uk vomit like this.

[se81] 14/6/2023 07:11

That sounds like a very good AGM update- the first with a positive tone for years? (literally)

[bouleversee] 30/3/2023 10:18

Thanks, Illis. S.P. down a bit more today while the market seems to be on an upward trend. Hope FSJ changes course.

[illiswilgig] 30/3/2023 08:38

Hello Bottomfisher,

Good points. I agree with you. The new hires look good and the new division structure makes more sense in todays markets. I think this change has been underway for some time and the previous CEO is still working in the company (until June iirc) to complete the restructuring and integration of subsidiary units with new company systems.

I'm hoping that under the covers the profitable businesses are making good progress. Contining revenue is ahead of expectation and I expect that the management is focusing upon not taking on low margin business and disposing of low margin operations. The recent fall in share price seems to be partly market wide and of course the banking convenant difficulty, likely disconnecting the share price from progress being made at the company?

Dividend. I notice that broker consensus following the recent snafu with the banks has reduced the forecast FY23 eps from 40p to 36p but retains a proposed dividend of 15p. That seemed ambitious to me, I'd prefer that they continue to pay down debt and invest, but its still there and I wonder if that reflects tough conversations between the BoD and the Sir John Fisher Foundation trustees?

It seems that in the setting up of the Trust Sir John Fisher stated his intention that the majority of the Trusts assets should be the Fisher shares. I don't know what the trustees think of that but it's not easy to ignore and they have been aware of the risks for many years. Accordingly they retained the advice of a Shipping consultant years ago, which is sensible given the stated intention of the donor in setting up the trust.

Reading between the lines I think the founder had two main reasons for setting up the foundation - the first being to continue his families charitable activities in the local area. The second being to put a substantial block of shares where it would not be easy for them to be disposed of or acquired by a hostile bidder.

I see in the accounts of the Foundation that it's expenditure is primarily in charitable donations - it has only modest operating costs of its own - and almost entirely gives to support other charities and a large number at that which suggests that they are careful to ensure that no one charity is overly dependent upon them. That is probably not by accident. A reflection of the risk to their funding and has enabled it to reduce funding by over 50% whilst its income has almost completely disappeared.

Spending over 1m in the year to March2022 surprised me. Luckily for the foundation another family trust - the John Mervyn Fisher Trust (Jersey) was wound up in 2021 and the assets transferred to the John Fisher Foundation - including over 2m in cash. It seems this has given the foundation an ability to continue substanntial donations to worthy causes - but I can also see that they will be asking (possibly even demanding) the return of dividend payments as soon as possible.

Given the founders intentions for the trust assets - I doubt that the trustees are in a rush to sell the shares? Personally I hope that they don't. I can imagine that they might sell some of the Mervyn Fisher shares, but probably once the share price has recovered enough for the sale to provide them with more appropriate short term liquid funds/investments to cope with future variations in dividends. Though of course, that would depend upon the nature of the Mervyn Fisher settlement which I don't know.

I shall be watching with interest to see how the potential return of dividend in 2023 proceeds, with a good offshore season in the energy business its certainly possible and that could transform the situation of the company later in the year - as well as its share-price? I can hope, but it seems Stuart Widdowson at Oddysean agrees - and he's way smarter than I am, which has me thinking.........


cheers

[bottomfisher] 29/3/2023 20:04

The new ceo seems to be really shaking up Fisher’s management team. Over the last month or so Fisher has appointed a new group general counsel Jean Francois Bauer (a near 30-year Schlumberger veteran), and new heads for two of the group’s three divisions. Rob Hales, the new head of defence is ex-Serco, and Neil Sims, the new head of energy comes from Expro.

Meanwhile, the collapse in Fisher’s share price and the abandonment of the dividend must be causing considerable soul searching amongst the trustees of the Sir John Fisher Foundation, the biggest shareholder, which owns 11.49m FSJ shares, or 22.79% of the company.

Virtually all of the charity’s assets are tied up FSJ shares and until recently the company was relying on its Fisher dividends to finance its annual donations of around £3m a year to over 70 local worthy causes mainly in the deprived surroundings of Barrow in Furness, its home town.

The charity does not appear to be represented on the Fisher board but according to the charity’s annual report has hired John Lawson, a former City shipping analyst, to advise it on how to contain the risks involved with the charity being almost totally dependent on the movement of the share price in just one company.

It would make sense at some stage for the charity to diversify its portfolio and substantially reduce its reliance on its income from Fisher’s shares. This is one reason why Fisher’s current depressed share price could attract a predator.

However, the recent disclosure that the company will retain some parent company guarantees to support the obligations of JF Nuclear following its sale could temper any potential predator’s enthusiasm.

[illiswilgig] 29/3/2023 09:30

Roddie,

Had not seen your message when I wrote mine.

Yes, I think you are right, bank covenants are complicated things which I know little of. I expect that Odyssean will know much more than us - in addition to having the ear of management.

cheers

[bouleversee] 28/3/2023 18:34

Yes, I received that notification and found it somewhat reassuring, too. I'm afraid I don't have a long-term future but I gave my children and grandchildren my certificated
shares quite a while ago and bought some back in my ISA, which I expect are showing a loss but never mind. We'll just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.

[illiswilgig] 28/3/2023 17:51

Boule,

I didn't mean to appear unduly negative or harsh. To provide some balance James Fisher has a number of good businesses, market leaders in their niches, with significant potential for growth. It had become clear that JFN was not one of them. But you're right it has certainly been a painful journey over the last few years and the turnaround is taking much longer than I'd anticipated.

Interesting that you should ask what the institutional investors think?

Today Odyssean Investment Trust has spent best part of a million quid to buy another 327k shares taking its holding to a round 5%. Odysseans managers are reputedly very shrewd, as is their top shareholder Harwood Capital. I have no doubt that they would sell and go if they thought this was going the wrong way.

I find that reassuring. But they are long-term investors so yet more patience is required..........

cheers

[roddiemac2] 28/3/2023 17:42

boule

Odyssean Investment Trust have increased from 4.35% to 5%.Perhaps they have better info than us.

[bouleversee] 27/3/2023 10:43

Thanks, Illis. Not much to cheer about there! I should think sparks will fly at the AGM whenever it is. I wonder what the institutional holders make of all this, if there are any left. Heart-breaking that things have come to this pass after holding them for so many years. Up a few pence today but flatlining now. Anyone seen any press comment?

Bouleversee (name gets more appropriate every day)

[illiswilgig] 27/3/2023 09:57

Boule, for what its worth:

No I'm not happy with them! Seems to be a rather unnecessary act of self-harm to me.

The statement is - probably deliberately - vague. It's not clear whether getting bank agreement to retaining these guarantees has the potential to be a big and/or costly deal, or whether its more of a formality.

Uncertainty is not good. Hence the sharp fall in share price.

To be clear - this deal selling £8m of tangible assets for £3 - doesn't make a lot of sense unless its financial engineering and there are no details of this to evaluate. Net debt up and risks retained set against reduced losses. Hope it makes sense. But not getting bank approval doesn't lend credibility to it?

Shame, because the trading statement is the same as stated at the time of sale so that's not got worse, and the revenue is ahead of previous expectations. Unfortunately the profit is not - and the company really does need to start generating more profit to get on top of its mountain of debt,

cheers

[bouleversee] 26/3/2023 16:11

Illis - What did you think about their announcement about the accounts being held up for a month and revenue and profits had not risen for 2022? S.p. down 8% at one point on Friday, closed at 5.91% down. Rather worrying.

[illiswilgig] 07/3/2023 15:58

Agreed. They are paying (in retained risk at least) for the VC to take the business off them. I was more than a little sceptical of handing over to a VC but after a quick google and read of the Rcapital website it seems that they are genuine and successful turnaround experts.

Good luck to them. And I mean it, cos if they don't succeed it might well cost FSJ some more. Shame that FSJ could not bring it back to profit before selling - but I hear that the customer (UK government) is busy delaying decommissioning contracts to reduce annual funding at the moment. On that basis probably not a big market for loss-making businesses in the industry.

Given that FSJ are highly limited in capex for their growth businesses - and UK nuclear decommissioning can't be a growth industry right now - it's a hard decision, but most likely a rational one.

cheers

[garth] 07/3/2023 06:59

Topvest,

I thought the same - although they make a point of saying they have safeguards of some sort in place.

G.

[topvest] 06/3/2023 18:30

It's a bit of a Kinovo style disposal with financial support and parent company guarantees in place. Could always come back to bite them unfortunately!

[bouleversee] 06/3/2023 15:28

Thanks, Illis. I was already feeling depressed.

[illiswilgig] 06/3/2023 14:55

Hello Boule, no simple answer from me I'm afraid.

Sold for £3 (which is £1 for each of the 2 trading cos and the holdco as far as I can see).

Good or Bad?

Bad in that its an(other) asset write down which won't improve the balance sheet.

But more good than bad I think in that it removes a complex and underperforming business. Without the losses ebitda increases and removes the need to keep putting more capital in and raising debt levels. It improves the debt covenent situation as well as removing one big problem which has lower prospects than other parts of the company?

Trading update looks just about ok on a continuing basis, in that revenue is above expectations where as profit? Who knows? Probably about in line but its hard to forecast financing and tax.

But most of all I see this as the new CEO getting his feet firmly under the table. Sold off a bunch of testing companies, the Swordfish DSV (For a much better price than the previous sale) and now removed a large non-core (in that its not a marine ) business.

I'm disappointed it wasn't better, but not as much as I am relieved it wasn't worse. Don't think it affects the medium term prospects very much, so now we wait to see how the CEO handles the coming year? The rns didn't waste any time trying to talk up good news, so this was most likely about ditching the past and setting the scene for the future? He won't want another year of write-offs he'll be looking to show good progress by the end of the year? And claim the credit.

I expect the buy the rumour mob will now be selling the news - but I can't see how that wasn't going to happen anyway?

I'll be paying close attention over the next few months. I hope he's successful!

cheers

[alfred] 06/3/2023 12:24

Given it away haven't they? Why couldn't they make the nuclear services division work?
Now a leaner cleaner company if anyone is interested in making an offer.

[bouleversee] 06/3/2023 10:49

Anyone got any views on today's RNS reporting sale of James Fisher Nuclear Holdings and related companies? S.p. down over 5% when I looked a few mins. ago.