Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[r9505571] 04/8/2021 21:25

I think we should keep Lodgeview cos as soon as he appears this thing takes off!

[bozzy_s] 04/8/2021 19:40

I'd wondered yesterday why I was seeing lodgeview (Filtered). Thag's post 9052 - I now remember! lodgeview's the prat who kept posting 'is it over?' whenever the share price dropped 5p, when it was in the 100s and 200s. Still the same in the 400s then!!

Yes lodgeview it's over. Sell and clear off!

[xamf] 04/8/2021 17:34

Well said Thags.

[shaf200] 04/8/2021 16:56

Oversold...

[lodgeview] 04/8/2021 16:54

It's over for FXPO after today and I bought in.

[yawn1971] 04/8/2021 16:42

I'll settle for a small bounce tomorrow

[thags] 04/8/2021 16:42

Hi BB, I read everything on fxpo lol. I'm sure it was in one of the pieces you shared but they're trialling a small sample of 67% for the US market around 1/3 of a million tonnes or half a million tonnes. It was either an interview with North or some literature, I'll see if I can dig it out

[podgyted] 04/8/2021 16:09

From the RNS:-

Outlook

"Outlook

Even with the experience of having successfully navigated through the COVID-19 pandemic, it is still extremely difficult to predict its future development and its impact on the global economy. It is the Group's view the associated uncertainties will persist for a prolonged period, resulting in a certain volatility in the global market that might require swift reactions and decisions. The Group expects to be able to rely on the experience gained since the beginning of the pandemic when it was able to redirect its pellet sales in order to benefit from favourable demand dynamics in the respective markets.

To date, iron ore fines prices have remained strong throughout the majority of the global COVID-19 pandemic, which relates to a direct response by sovereign governments to stimulate economies and counter the financial effects of measures taken to stem the spread of COVID-19. The Group expects the influence of these fiscal policies to ease in the second half of the year, with demand for iron ore declining from the record levels being seen at present. As of July 2021, the consensus forecast for iron ore prices (62% Fe) in 2021, based on a grouping of 11 investment banks, was US$170 per tonne for the full year, implying a decrease in the average iron ore price by approximately US$15 per tonne in 2H 2021 from the level seen in 1H 2021. Iron ore futures contracts also indicate a fall in iron ore pricing in the second half of 2021, with contracts for delivery of iron ore (62% Fe) December 2021 priced at US$180 per tonne as of 28 July 2021[17], compared to a spot iron ore price of US$201 per tonne as of the same date[18]."

[bellbottom] 04/8/2021 15:45

Concorde's summary of today's results.

[blueclyde] 04/8/2021 15:42

Everyone knew the results would be good due to the iron ore price tracked on a daily basis but they weren't, they missed expectations by quite a bit.Iron ore prices aren't expected to be as strong going forward, caper is much higher than expected that's the reason for the sell off.

[zho] 04/8/2021 15:31

>>They should Move out of robbing Switzerland though.>>

Yes, definitely. I'm not sure why they're domiciled there: does anyone know?


>> ... but I don’t see anything in the fundamentals here that would be classed as ‘disappointing’>>

They were cracking results, but not as good as my rough and ready estimates.

[denc] 04/8/2021 15:27

Somewhat surprising fall following the results. Reduced volume and the current iron ore price I suspect. Great divi. They should Move out of robbing Switzerland though.

[bellbottom] 04/8/2021 15:04

Thags, you mentioned Ferrexpo shipping an ore sample to the US? Where did you read this? Traditionally Ferrexpo have had no US ore sales - not sure why not, though could be that Brazil (Vale) have the bulk of sales there? I believe the US produce much of their own ore in any case. I admit I'm not clear on this? Needs checking.

But with US proposed recovery package and infrastructure deal amounting to over $180 billion, plus a proposed green recovery bill amount - (not sure of the numbers), maybe Ferrexpo can supply a large chunk of their needs, especially with their new green credentials and increase in 67% fines.

With possible China drop off in supply, maybe the US can fill that gap?

[angersharkz] 04/8/2021 14:40

Zho - ‘High grade (65% Fe) iron ore prices assessed by S&P Global Platts increased significantly during H1 2021 compared to H1 2020’

Everyone can interpret results in their own way which is what creates a market but I don’t see anything in the fundamentals here that would be classed as ‘disappointing’

Other shares like MGNS (down 4%) have tanked today off good results which suggests it’s a sell off. Time will tell I suppose

[zho] 04/8/2021 14:09

>>Zho - the market was expecting a better improvement than an 74% increase in revenue, a 165% increase in profit and a 200% rise on dividend per share on the same period last year? That’s ridiculous.>>

After RIO said ...

“The monthly average Platts index for 62% iron fines converted to an FOB basis more than doubled compared with 2020 first half”

... last week I was hoping for the same here. That may be why the market is disappointed.

[bigberty99] 04/8/2021 14:04

Some of you people just think shares go up up and up and up and up

[angersharkz] 04/8/2021 14:01

Zho - the market was expecting a better improvement than an 74% increase in revenue, a 165% increase in profit and a 200% rise on dividend per share on the same period last year? That’s ridiculous.

I think they’ve been pragmatic in their outlook to the future but iron ore prices can move and quickly, that’s the nature of the beast when investing in a mining company.

I would imagine the mass sell off today is the short term traders profit taking combined with nervous investors getting spooked by today’s drop.

The fundamentals here are very good. I’ll be holding until the bullish months come round and I’ll collect the dividend in doing so

[thags] 04/8/2021 13:57

This company needs to move headquarters, than in itself would provide a huge boost

[tygarreg] 04/8/2021 13:49

Can anyone work out how much Swiss tax will have been paid by fxpo shareholders this year? Mind boggling

[zho] 04/8/2021 13:48

Looking at the share price, the 500 area seem a step too far at the moment. Despite the good results from the firm maybe the market was expecting a greater improvement. The fact that iron ore prices have taken a dip is also a concern for investors. There are a few key support zones to look out for on the chart, the first major one is the 446 area which is the major consolidation zone from the current consolidation period. The top of the bull flag structure could also provide some support too. On the upside, the high on the chart is the area the bulls will be looking to target. The all-time high in the stock is 552.6 and it seems a logical target if the high gets broken.

[angersharkz] 04/8/2021 13:46

Paying a dividend is a must for a company like fxpo to show the health and strength of the business, not paying a dividend would have huge consequences on the share price. The Swiss tax situation is unfortunate but they reward share holders with solid dividends and regularly.

[tygarreg] 04/8/2021 13:46

Certainly I could make more on fxpo in my isa if profits increased share price rather than divis to us and the Swiss taking their share. The next divi will give me £3000 but Swiss tax will keep £1000. And my shares will drop £3000 in value come xdv day

[yawn1971] 04/8/2021 13:42

Still stunned at the drop. I read the end and didn't see a retrace like today. Are we all going to become sell on news merchants ? Seems so. Roll on divi day !