Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[bozzy_s] 30/6/2021 17:03

Nice news today. As expected the residual debt has been repaid.

This is the game changer I was looking forward to. Now FXPO has no debt repayments and no limit on dividends.

If pellet prices stay ultra high, I'd expect somewhere around £1 a share to be paid in 2022.

With H1 completed, and today's pellet price already published on Custeel, here are my estimates for FXPO's H1 results:

Revenue $1,409,536,620

Cost of production $267,680,000

Gross profit $1,227,576,000

Selling & distribution costs / admin costs / other costs $200,000,000

Profit before tax $1,027,576,000

Income tax (say 15%, same as 2020) $154,136,400

Profit after tax $873,439,600 or £628,373,813

EPS £1.07



<<< Based on the following publicly available information >>>

Q1 production of 2,714,000t pellets

Q1 average 65% pellet price of $240.78

H1 sales 5,600,000t pellets

Q2 average 65% pellet price of $294.76

Cash cost of production $47.80 (I'm using 2019 figure rather than 2020's $41.50 when energy costs were cheap)

Shares in issue 588,624,142



Q3 and Q4 production expected to be significantly higher than Q1 and Q2.

Current 65% pellet price is $318.30

Notes on increased royalties coming from H2 onwards: Current royalty payment $3 per tonne of pellets, regardless of commodity price. Future royalty $9 per tonne if 62% pellet price is around $200. Future royalty $18 per tonne if 62% pellet price is over $200. Currently over $200, so expect an additional $15 per tonne in royalty payments.


Therefore assuming nothing changes, H2 results, even with extra royalties, will be significantly better than H1. We should easily smash £2 EPS. And with no debt to pay, and no huge capital expenditure, I'd expect £1+ in dividends paid in 2022.

[kenmitch] 30/6/2021 13:52

Thags

Mining Sector shares are down again and the sector has been weak for a few weeks now. So the FXPO share price fall is probably just in line with the sector. There’s nothing much FXPO can do about it! Day after day Mining shares move up and down in tandem. The time to worry with any of them is if they don’t join in on the up days. It is not a worry imo when they just join in the general sector falls.

New good news and a falling share price is often a good top up or buy opportunity. Big question is how much further the falls are going before bottoming out. The bull case for Mining shares is very strong including Ferrexpo, but against that shorter term China trying to keep a lid on commodity prices seems to be working. But it could be like a coiled spring with the bigger and faster the upside once the sector bottoms.

And a big plus for Ferrexpo is that fabulous dividend yield which is massive now for those of us lucky enough to have bought near the lows last year.

[denc] 30/6/2021 13:30

The dividend return at today's price is over 14% . Even with 15% Swiss Witholding this is massive. Inevitably this share will rise. I hold.

[foxy22] 30/6/2021 09:35

I'm going to add....

[thags] 30/6/2021 09:04

Share price continues to drop, just nonsensical now

[foxy22] 30/6/2021 08:52

On the ferrexpo website...investors...repayment of debt facility....30 June

[foxy22] 30/6/2021 08:49

On the boards...alliance news flash...subscribe to it

[denziiil] 30/6/2021 08:48

My thoughts also. Going to be another big one.

[croasdalelfc] 30/6/2021 08:41

They should announce next dividend with results in early August -

[thags] 30/6/2021 08:29

Sorry, read the RNS lol. Just what I wanted them to do. Share price hasn't moved just as I expected too

[thags] 30/6/2021 08:07

Where is the info foxy22

[foxy22] 30/6/2021 08:01

When's the next dividend....maybe it's worth adding to

[croasdalelfc] 30/6/2021 07:37

They can now pay higher dividends - banking covenants have gone

[foxy22] 30/6/2021 07:22

Ferrexpo seeing demand for pellets and repayment of loan.....

[thags] 28/6/2021 21:00

This one is so frustrating, today's chart looks like the oblivion ride at Alton towers

[denziiil] 28/6/2021 19:46

Fxpo achieved $250M net profit h1 last year with fe65 price margin of around $85/t after c1 costs. At current spot prices co achieving 3x this margin.7th July update4th August h1 results.

[denziiil] 28/6/2021 19:43

I think highest pellets price this year, and was possibly an all time high, $329.70, on 12th May.Price has quietly crept back up today to $323.70.Makes it the 2nd highest.?

[r9505571] 24/6/2021 09:17

Was mulling this over myself. Could just be that they see value in the share plus the tasty dividend. It could be an advantage as if the company is taken private

[paulheptonstall] 24/6/2021 08:47

Can the more informed on this board explain the significance of the Schroders Plc building of their stake. Could it on behalf of an acquisition client, or just to boost their institutional investment. Either way is it positive news for Ferrexpo

[r9505571] 24/6/2021 06:40

Good to see Schroders Plc gradually building their stake

[bellbottom] 23/6/2021 09:28

More future proofing from Ferrexpo to be super efficient and environmentally friendly in their operations. This bodes well for long term growth, value and ultimately the gradual rise of the share price




BB

[v11slr] 22/6/2021 17:58

They are shipping more by rail to the EU.

[denziiil] 22/6/2021 17:45

And now that Putin has Nordstrom 2, I am not worried about him walking in the front door again.

[podgyted] 22/6/2021 17:44

For those that don't use IG :-

[denziiil] 22/6/2021 17:44

Would have been around 2M tonnes at its peak by the looks of things.FXPO moving more by rail?