Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[bozzy_s] 09/3/2020 17:47

6982 - looking at the market today, it looks like gold and iron ore have been safe havens.

Obviously gold has gone ballistic in the past few weeks. And iron ore pellet prices are still high, while everything else has dropped.




We all know FXPO's biggest problem is its former boss & majority shareholder. It's a risk, but if the company is still around in 6 years time, it should've paid 120p+ in dividends (after witholding tax), 150p+ gross, in the meantime.

[bellbottom] 09/3/2020 14:49

Porsche

Did you say small?! Third biggest iron ore producer on the planet!
I suspect you know nothing about this company and choose instead to generalise.
The drop in share price is the same across the board - all brought on by CV19 - have a look at the stock market in general. FXPO no different in that respect.

Just maybe you are willing it back to pennies, so that you can jump aboard before this climbs back up £3 or even £4, where it rightfully belongs.

BB

[porsche1945] 09/3/2020 14:24

@ mustau

in pretty much anything other than small, slightly dodgy, old ussr block miners with suspect oversight. This heading back to pennies.

[bellbottom] 09/3/2020 08:42

I feel like I am fiddling while Rome burns - a reference to Italy's particular CV19 crisis and the inclusion of the following link, as a slight aside, when looking at the sea of red that is the stock market. Bloodbath! I notice one oily down 75%.

My previous link referencing Zelenskiy's visit to Poltava and his supposed offer of an open door to dialogue to the ex CEO, combined with a few clues in the Guardian article - which is excellent by the way, gives me some hope that a 'deal' will be done between the ex CEO and the government.

Ok, so we have a major crisis to get over before then, and a slow climb back to previous levels, but I feel better about the whole thing today than I did on Friday. I may be deluding myself, but that's a better feeling than looking at the other options.



BB

[mustau] 08/3/2020 17:34

Porsche,

Where do you suggest one should invest?
Expert as you are do tell!!

[bellbottom] 08/3/2020 14:48

Not sure about the quality of the 'google translate' feature but the article seems to suggest a door being opened for dialogue or discussions with the President of the Ukraine and the ex CEO. let's hope Zhevago takes the opportunity to work this out.

Autokraz, another of Zhevago's enterprises going through a difficult phase, but nice to see Zelensky visiting the company.



Zelensky recently spent two days in Poltava region (5th and 6th March)



BB

[porsche1945] 08/3/2020 00:22

This is uninvestable, too many unknowns. I thought ENRC was a corrupt basket case that the LSE was happy to list but Fxp and Kaz are as bad. Could see this nationalised within months.

[bellbottom] 06/3/2020 16:28

Is Ukraine moving away from western influence and moving closer to Russia, partly in order to achieve a deal in the Donbas region? Kolomoisky obviously happy to influence this path to give him a greater chance of winning back Privatbank, which would be less likely with the IMF onboard.

Looks like structural reforms and prosecuting corrupt oligarchs may have to take a back seat.



Have a nice weekend. Maybe next week will see some improvement. Don't hold your breath!

BB

[bellbottom] 06/3/2020 11:37

This Washington Post article sums up the situation in Ukraine pretty well.



For those interested, the ongoing Court proceedings regarding Privatbank, will have a huge influence on the future of Ukraine, its relationship with the West and its financing by the IMF.

It's fascinating to note that Igor Kolomoisky, former owner of Privatbank before it was nationalised, owns the TV station that made President Zelensky a major TV star in his role as a comedian who becomes president, before the comedian actually did become president with a landslide victory just last year. You couldn't make it up.

Theoretically, the judges involved in the case should be independent of the government. Also, they should be independent of influence from other outside sources that would take an interest, which influence could take the form of threats of violence, real violence or the easier option of financial incentive. Not that I am suggesting any of those options of course, but let's take the case of former Governor of The National Bank of Ukraine, Valeria Gontareva. I quote from the Washington Post article.

"Kolomoisky also has a reputation as a formidable and frightening enemy.

Former central banker Valeria Gontareva made an enemy of him in 2016, when the bank nationalized Privatbank — Kolomoisky’s bank and Ukraine’s biggest — after $5.5 billion in deposits disappeared, risking a national economic crisis. Kolomoisky has denied wrongdoing.

Masked men with Kalashnikovs delivered a coffin with her blood-soaked effigy to the entrance of the central bank in 2017. Her house was vandalized. Fearing for her life, she quit her job four years before her contract expired and fled to London.

Gontareva accuses him of death threats and harassment, which he has denied.

On Sept. 5, Gontareva’s son’s car was burned in Ukraine. On Sept. 10, men with masks and machine guns searched her Kyiv apartment. Two days later, her home outside Kyiv was burned to the ground. (In August, she was struck by a car in London, but she remains uncertain as to whether that incident was linked.)"

You can make your own conclusions from the above.





BB

[grechen] 06/3/2020 10:22

Never a dull moment indeed BB but, like you, feel it will all come good in the end.

Keep up your flow of news as it's greatly appreciated.

ATB

[bellbottom] 06/3/2020 09:33

Hi Grechen,

I was imagining the threat or short term revoking of the licence being used as some kind of bargaining chip to exert pressure on the ex CEO to agree to some settlement.

Though I can't see a settlement being acceptable to the Ukraine public, given Zelensky's cabinet change this week as a reaction to his personal dissatisfaction with progress as well as public pressure to see results. Show trials are what's needed to satisfy the baying for blood. After all there is too much of a history of rich individuals or companies flashing the cash as a way of avoiding prosecution.

Doesn't help the government when many of the media outlets are owned and run by oligarchs and those who would jump for joy at Zelensky's failure.
We already know of the power of the media here in the UK, to influence public opinion. In Ukraine this is potentially a greater issue. Put that together with Russia on your doorstep, willing your failure and using all means to help that along and it makes it a very steep uphill struggle.

BB

We'll see. Never a dull moment with FXPO.

[bellbottom] 06/3/2020 09:23

Ukraine's President Zelensky has fired his entire cabinet as of Wednesday this week. Partly because of lack of real results, which is not surprising, given their overall lack of experience. Also, the Ukraine public have heard it all before about reform and as a result his personal rating has plummeted. I imagine there are a few oligarchs and other interested groups wringing their hands with glee at the possibility of he and possibly his party of young idealists losing popularity and paving the way for the old guard to take over again in four years time.

Ultimately, Zelensky and his party 'Servants of the People' need to be seen to be stamping out corruption and bringing those corrupt individuals to public trial. That could take years of course and by then he and his party may be consigned to history.

What this means, of course, for the ex CEO and ultimately for Ferrexpo, I have no idea. Mid to long term still looking like a steal.

Sad to see the share price drop again today but seems to be making a slight recovery.
Roll on the 18th March and some good news to set us back on the road to recovery.





BB

[grechen] 05/3/2020 15:01

I may be naïve but I can't see that fxpo's licence would be revoked....what would the govt. gain from that?FXPO is a major contributor to Ukraines economy so it is in everyones interest not to interfere with a very well run company.
If the CEO's shares were sold to realise capital for his shady dealings there could be a positive scenario there for shareholders as it could pave the way for a takeover by one of the big boys.There has been speculation on that front for many years but,with the CEO's majority holding,it was never going to happen.
Think/hope that he will pay his dues in time (he can well afford to)and get a pardon for his misdemeanours.
All sounds too easy doesn't it?

[bellbottom] 05/3/2020 10:31

Not being an expert on the Ukrainian legal system and the real intentions of the current Zelensky government to crack down on the previous questionable dealings of the oligarchs. Is it a possibility, within the government's armoury, to revoke the mining licence from Ferrexpo and its group of mining companies?

Ferrexpo's 2018 Full Year Results, published on 23rd April 2019, states the following on page 24.

'The Group holds mining licences and other permits required to carry out mining operations. If mining licences were to be revoked or not renewed, Ferrexpo’s ability to continue to produce pellets would be at risk.'

This statement was made before Zelensky and his party swept to power. The risks to Ferrexpo are surely greater under the current government and given the fact of the ex CEO no longer being an MP with the protection that that once offered.

I suppose I am falling into the classic trap where we are in limbo, waiting for news of the ex CEO's arrest or instead, his miraculous recovery, furnished by a huge financial contribution to the government's coffers, but in the meantime I am imagining the worst case scenarios that would decimate my investment in this company. No news is bad news in this instance. Add CV19 to the mix and the mind goes into overdrive.

BB

[bellbottom] 05/3/2020 09:27

Sorry, my mistake. Preliminary Results due 18th March and not 8th March.

BB

[foxy22] 03/3/2020 10:55

Very interesting readYes poltava is concerning and corruption links etc worrying....

[bellbottom] 03/3/2020 09:26

While we await news and the preliminary results due on the 8th March, this document is worth a read, especially pages 102 and 103. If any of the stated 'theories' as to the ex CEO's involvement in the Poltava mine be true, then its possible the government of Ukraine have good reason to re-nationalise the mine.
It sounds as if the uncertainty and legal wranglings could endure for many more months. I admit it makes me feel less confident when added together with all the other data out there.




BB

[r9505571] 27/2/2020 22:50

https://mobile.worldmaritimenews.com/archives/291670/vale-20-evacuated-after-giant-iron-ore-ship-starts-listing/

[r9505571] 27/2/2020 21:01

Who is your profitable gold miner?

[bozzy_s] 27/2/2020 13:12

Nothing to suggest the dividend's at risk. Pellet prices still fine, dropping from a high of 106 to 100 in the past few days. FXPO still making a fat margin on everything it produces.

Everything's down, pretty much. My profitable gold miner has dropped 20% since Monday morning, despite a positive RNS, and making bigger profits due to the gold price rally.

Quality will shine through in the end. And the chance to get a better dividend yield while the shares fall - fine by me!

[bellbottom] 27/2/2020 09:07

Well, what can we do? We were at 157.75p a week ago and in hindsight turning stocks into cash would have been the correct move. But in the space of just one week the stock market is being pulled back by the sensationalist headlines and almost continual news items regarding Coronavirus.

Roll on 18th March when Fxpo 2019 preliminary results announced. But no telling what size a hole the world will have dug for itself by then.

My real and virtual portfolios almost entirely red and have been all week. A previous shining star managed fund has tumbled to levels not seen for almost a year, so this drop is right across the board.

BB

[bozzy_s] 25/2/2020 15:27

I don't usually like companies buying back their own shares. But if this slump were to take us towards a ridiculous price of £1, it'd be a great place to spend some of FXPO's excess cash.

That's assuming the iron ore price stays strong, as it has so far. Barely changed during yesterday's bloodbath.

[bellbottom] 25/2/2020 11:53

I hadn't realised that the ex CEO of Ferrexpo had been in the market to 'own' another bank, after the demise of his Finance and Credit Bank of Ukraine. But I suppose it is useful to have ownership of such an establishment to move money around.
It seems he owns 21.2% of the Union Bank of Liechtenstein, which also appears to be a bank interested in becoming involved in cryptocurrencies. Maybe that was one of the other attractions in investing in such a bank.

I believe the ex CEO has had his investment in the Union Bank frozen while investigations into money laundering are ongoing and concluded. In the meantime, Union Bank are desperate for new investors before their banking license runs out.





Whether this news is good, bad or irrelevant to Ferrexpo I have no idea as yet. It's all tied up with the ongoing investigations by the Ukrainian authorities. The sooner this is resolved, the better all round.

BB