Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[the chairman elect] 18/10/2022 10:30

FAO: cyberbub

Holding up very well at elevated levels....

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$650.0/t vs US$650.0/t

[the chairman elect] 17/10/2022 13:50

POST 8408 on the 13th of this month was spot on reference the 50% FIB buying opportunity @ EML

[cyberbub] 17/10/2022 12:31

Yes possibly Rajawali they are needing to get OCP organised. Of course if they want a JV deal where OCP will fund the main capex (which they could easily do), then the issue of FDI doesn't come into it .. As you say, delays could be positive as well as negative... But the point about 'something going on' still applies...

[rajawali] 17/10/2022 11:25

Cyber... no doubt the selloff has been partly due to impatience but also the fear that there is something untoward bubbling behind the scene. This does not gel, in my view, with the huge drive by Morocco for FDI.

I would liken it to a junior suddenly discovering a major rare earth deposit on home soil in the USA. Behind the scenes, how does that get structured? It is not so simple. Is OCP ready to diversify into mining as a JV partner... or not? These discussions are important and take time.

Anyway, I think to not have exposure to the two most compelling themes of our time (fertiliser supply chain diversification and exploding regional demographics) is a missed opportunity.

[cyberbub] 17/10/2022 10:25

I understand the point you're making Rajawali, African government bureaucracy moves slowly at the best of times, in my direct experience of other African miners. It can take literally years and years just to get a mining permit, even when it will clearly be a major benefit to a poor country. However we had hoped that Morocco was a quasi-European government and economy - they've had the ESIA on their desks, pretty much ready to approve, for 9+ months - eventually there has to be a suspicion that something else is happening behind the scenes. Hopefully not and it's just paper shuffling delays! If we can get it approved by Xmas then we could have financing in place by Easter IMO, assuming the markets are willing. The project is certainly necessary for the world, as you point out!!

[rajawali] 17/10/2022 09:52

Hi Donald, Morocco is being bombarded with high level delegations from many European countries. From solar cables to UK, to gas pipelines, to auto manufacturing etc, Morocco is likely to be a considerable beneficiary of deglobalisation.

The challenge I see is that this influx of interest has hit their bureaucratic capacity constraint all at once. My point was that there is a proximate, African solution to crop nutrition that will attract regional political interest.

I'm not interested in the short term market volatility and prefer to see this come into production, whenever that is. Patience does not come easily in a noisy market.

[donald pond] 17/10/2022 08:37

Yes, but why have Morocco been sitting on giving us a permit for a year or more? The project is fantastic, the issue is progress, or lack of it.

[rajawali] 17/10/2022 01:03

Spent the last 2 wks meeting with the major state cotton boards from West African nations. They need to purchase inputs for 2023 planting season. Urea is too expensive and there is no offer for NPK. Think about that. 3 million Ha of the primary cash crop for a population of over 100,000,000 restive and insecure neighbours will not receive required fertiliser. All their potash is from Belarus.

Rather than focusing on the short term pessimism of the AIM market, the underlying fundamental picture for EML is compelling.

[qsmeily456] 14/10/2022 13:51

Cyber dubs a pure 🐓 no idea. Made a 💩 load on his and the thick Yorkshireman🤣;🤣

[cyberbub] 14/10/2022 09:51

Thanks chairman

[the chairman elect] 14/10/2022 08:55

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$650.0/t vs US$650.0/t [Potash prices quoted as at 13/10/2022]

[cyberbub] 13/10/2022 20:19

Has anyone got any info on latest potash prices in Brazil? I see that US prices are dropping slowly, around $750 from what I can find online.

[cyberbub] 13/10/2022 20:13

If (and it's a big 'if' given the top quality of our management) it proves too difficult to raise finance in these dire markets, I hope and trust that they will sell out to a bigger fish (OCP or A.N. Other) at a fair and reasonable price. 20p+ please :-)

[cyberbub] 13/10/2022 13:37

Septblues, not just a potash resource but a good-sized potash resource in a good location, with a feasibility study complete and a great economic case, almost all permitting in place, and a number of early engineering aspects being progressed on the ground...

[greenelf] 13/10/2022 13:11

Coming down to more realistic valuation now

[septblues] 13/10/2022 12:25

a potash resource for £43m

[qsmeily456] 13/10/2022 11:02

U 2 thick 🐓🐓 have been so wrong from day 1 🤣🤣🤣🍾9346;

[the chairman elect] 13/10/2022 10:33

Yes agree apfindley reference: Capitulation Selling [not just @ EML but in the markets generally]

BTW....as you will no doubt know already....EML are now trading at around 50% off the recent highs from the spring / early summer [those that use FIB will have noted for certain]

[apfindley] 13/10/2022 10:10

692k late reported.....that's someone who pooed themselves and sold their entire holding on the back of market weakness. Very sad. They will likely regret it later. Why sell such a large ammount in 1 trade when the markets are behaving as they are this week.

[qsmeily456] 13/10/2022 09:34

Brilliant u complete losers 2 🤣🤣🤣 u rampers deserve it all 🤣🤣🤣🍾9346;

[crankylad] 13/10/2022 09:30

I dont want to panic anyone.... but when is this going to hit bottom??????

[donald pond] 13/10/2022 09:23

Given the time getting the permit is taking I'd like to see the company take steps to minimise costs. Stop all spending and reduce director salaries until we have the green light

[terminator101] 13/10/2022 09:20

Morning rampers, how’s it hanging in this massively overvalued fluff? Not so good huh.

Maybe listen to the bear case once in a while, oh and perhaps question why loss making non revenue generating fluff that’s cash hungry is worth multiple 10’s of millions.