I think we've learned that Morocco is a corrupt country where decisions are made on the basis of how much the decision maker gets personally. In which case, it wouldn't be surprising if those connected to the project in Morocco are loading up before a settlement. Buy 1m shares last month for £6k, agree a settlement for 20p a share, walk away with £195k profit. Makes sense. |
There appears to be very strong support, based on the large number of buys in EML over the last 10 days, that the Company's litigation against the Moroccan Government will be successful.I have no idea about the procedure or time scale, but new/existing shareholders must be thinking that there will be a positive outcome. |
 Reddit Rumour @ OBD
A leaked email on Reddit showing communication between OBDs CEO Ross, & the Romanian Health minister. The emails reveal 3 more contracts have been signed in Romania. It also confirms 2 new contracts in Spain have also been lined up.... The 3 Romanian contracts will be announced early next week.
The news of how big the RNS regarding OBDs cancer test success, seems to have been overlooked by the markets. In the RNS the CEO states;
▪︎"Discussions are underway with potential partners to bring this potentially evolutionary test to clinical practice."
He gives that massive "nod" to the market in the 5th RNS!!
RNS from 05/02 [3 main highlights]
▪︎ Results of multi-institutional clinical study published in peerx reviewed journal 'Cancers' confirms efficacy of Oxford BioDynamics' EpiSwitch® blood-based Colorectal No-Stool Test (NST)
▪︎ High accuracy of detection reported at 81% for early cancer stages and 82% for non-cancerous polyps
▪︎ Discussions are underway with potential partners to bring this potentially evolutionary test to clinical practice
12/02 RNS;
"Oxford BioDynamics partners with Regina Maria to offer EpiSwitch clinical tests in Romania
Regina Maria is Romania's largest private healthcare provider, serving 5 million patients
OBD's EpiSwitch PSE and CiRT tests will be available to physicians and patients in Romania as part of Regina Maria's oncology portfolio" |
I know someone who knows the litigation funding sector well and it is definitely not LIT. Everyone in the sector believes it to be Burford but Burford don't comment on these things |
And to make it go away, Morocco would need to pay either a minimum of around 100million+ (the historic license costs of money spent), OR upto a maximum of the dcf figure which will be either the original 1.3bn npv or the updated 2.2bn npv value. Compared to a 15 mill market cap, do the maths folks.So with Burfords 93% success rate, it looks promising. |
They wouldn't have kicked it off and, certainly wouldnt have got the financial backing (after lawyers would have had in-depth research of the evidence), if it was thought they were likely to lose. |
Yes, but Burford very rarely back a losing horse. 93% of their cases end in victory or a negotiated settlement. So my base case is that there is a 93% chance of getting an offer large enough to make the case go away, and I can't see that bring less than 8p a share. Or more than 20p, to be honest. |
I am looking for arbitration and a negotiated settlement, all hopefully executed fairly swiftly. There seems no need to go to court, as long as people are reasonable. The binary outcome is if EML loose the arbitration...... |
EML will never produce potash. He's clearly not up to speed |
Are you behind the news here?There is an arbitration.It will be based upon the npv of the asset.The discounted cashflow is rated to that npv figure.Getting potash out the ground is irrelevant at this stage. |
It doesn't matter what the NPV isUntil that potash is out of the ground it can't make profit. |
Indeed.A 2.2 billion npv asset and a market cap of just 15 mill.The chart doesn't show that. |
There is substance here. It may be a binary play on a legal outcome, but that doesn't mean there's no substance |
Zak on a pump and dumpNo fundamentals here. Only speculation. |
You're probably correct.Let the boys enjoy their little graphs with random lines with cups and handles and teapots and spouts and all the bottoms they can find. |
In my viewings he derives his targets purely from chart action and trend lines/levels he sees at that instance. .Your comments are from a fundamentally different (also my) perspective. Zak has his followers that provide some additional liquidity for us LTH's; IMHO I would guess the agile Zak believers make good money |
Not sure targets mean much at the moment until we know if Emmerson are going for the full 2.2 billion compensation, or going to accept a smaller settlement, or even be granted the permit and resume activities. It'll one of those 3, so unsure where Zak get his random prices from. |
I forgot to mention that Zak Mir's price target is 1.6 p. |
Zak Mir has tipped this share recently as a technical buy. You can see the way the chart is moving . |
Ticked up despite someone dumping 2.1mSuggests some appetite |
The share chart looks brilliant. It will move up rapidly to 1.5 p soon. |
I was just mucking around L L B [after the 20p+ by stating 50p+]
Could end up being 100p+
The point is that currently no one knows how this will end up but I guess we would mostly be pleased if we got back anything over 10p+ |
I will be happy to see 2 pence for starters, and still need a multi bagger for scratch.. :o)..
But over 2025, with a result from our legal claim for compensation, that could happen with Burford behind us (if it is them).. |
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