Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 02/1/2025 15:55

Yes a big own goal by Morroco.

[allinforabigprofit] 02/1/2025 15:16

What we want is focus, that someone or group of Moroccan officials focus on the problem and alter whoever or whatever law(s) to allow EML, continue work in Morocco.

[joe say] 02/1/2025 15:05

And in the meantime any sensible government or company should avoid Morocco like the plague

[bumpa33] 02/1/2025 14:16

interesting analysis of the EML situation, don’t know the guy but from his bio he specialises in investing - if that’s the right word - in these litigation plays. And he’s up front on his winners and losers.

Could takes years at worst, probably many months at best - and that’s if Morocco try to make it go away quickly.

Even with very hefty discounts to NPV and assuming all the costs - as he’s laid out - it’s still interesting, maybe enticing even for the patient…

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/1/2025 13:15

This could take months or years, with our key staff now redundant and directors taking shares in lieu of salaries it looks like a recovery play through arbitration and the courts and we have now gone past the point of trying to recover an ESIA and then onto funding to build a mine with trust broken..

The Gov have not acted to the BIT code, simple, they will not engage, if we are stone walled how are we supposed to progress and move forward, it was always a risk with OCP being the state miner and we were never going to get our ESIA and wasting our time for 4/5 years..

Whatever might come back in less the directors 6% and the lawyers undisclosed fees is divisible by the share capital of 1,139,096,966 ordinary shares for the shareholders, GQC/GSM will want their money back for sure..

A huge red flag to any other potential inward investment, which goes against the charter they have set out, IF they do not want to scuttle any current inward investment they will need to settle and make this go away..?, but anyone even thinking about investing in Morocco will be considering their positions carefully now..

[pangrati] 02/1/2025 12:05

SP Angel . Morning View .

Emmerson PLC – (EML LN) – Litigation and working capital funding secured for up to US$11m

Emmerson PLC is looking to progress its legal dispute with the Government of Morocco over Boies Schiller Flexner LLP has been confirmed as Emerson’s litigation counsel.

Emmerson completed a scoping study on its 100% owned Khemisset Potash Project in Morocco in February 2024.

The study proposes the use of a new and proprietary processing process to treatment potash brine to remove magnesium and iron chlorides through the addition of phosphate and ammonia.

This allows the residual brine to be recycled offering significant environmental benefits through the elimination of deep well injection and halving of water consumption.

The new process claims to increase the recovery rate of MOP to 91% from 85% along with the production of two new slow-release fertiliser products, struvite and vivianite.

Scoping Study economics:

Post-tax NPV8 US$2.2bn from NPV8 US$1.0bn previously
Post-tax IRR of 40% from 26%
EBITDA US$440mpa vs US$258mpa previousl
CAPEX US$525m vs US$539m previousl
AISC: US$163/t

Conclusion: The securing of litigation funding lends some credibility to the claims by Emmerson over its Khemisset project in Morocco.

While the Kingdom of Morocco trades extensively with the US and EU other miners and explorers will be watching this case with close interest.

[tightfist] 02/1/2025 12:03

So IMHO it all comes down to negotiation. Are Morocco in a hurry to resolve/progress, or have they years to play the game? This looks like a battle of patience - but I assume they have the liquid funds to settle (unlike Argentina versus Burford)..And do they need a rapid cleaning of the slate for the Morocco/UK solar energy project to progress?

[amt] 02/1/2025 11:48

It could be a win win win.
Morocco Government payout 200usd compensation and get an asset worth 1 billion.
The lawyers get say half and that leaves us shareholders with a ten bagger from here.

[swanvesta] 02/1/2025 11:24

There have been a number of similar cases recently, successfully concluded by Timothy Foden. So some reason for optimism, on top of the $11m non-recourse loan which does suggest the funders are confident of a return, which would be a multiple of that.

[apfindley] 02/1/2025 11:01

"Likely to be successful" How do you deduce that rubbish?These cases take years to resolve.There have been many state breaches of BIT over the years and many have failed.In particular, Oxus gold who had a very strong case against Uzbekistan, which after a long drawn out arbitration, was dismissed by corrupt lawyers with ties to the Clintons and Blairs.Nothing is guaranteed until its finalised.

[cyberbub] 02/1/2025 10:20

Interesting that the market cap is still less than £10m. The litigation now looks likely to be successful but could take years, or alternatively the Moroccan govt might simply decide to cut their losses and pay Emerson to go away and leave it to OCP. How much? I very much doubt their claim for the full NPV of $2.2bn will succeed, but they should be able to get maybe £250M+, which is a healthy gain on money invested? Just a guess - you'd probably have to look at other similar cases and see what proportion of the NPV was awarded.NAI

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/1/2025 08:33

Any party that puts up USD11M on a no win no fee basis, must have a good degree of confidence in the outcome, and they will have considered many many cases before committing in just 2 months..

Clearly the Moroccan Gov have broken the BIT code they signed up to, but is it all about compensation now though, trust would have broken down completely in trying to get our ESIA then a mine up and running and having to work with the Gov there..?

[pangrati] 02/1/2025 08:25

Litigation Funding Secured and Litigation Counsel Confirmed

Emmerson Plc, the Moroccan focused potash development company, is pleased to announce that it has signed a Capital Provision Agreement ("CPA") with a specialist litigation funding firm to provide up to US$11,000,000 in both litigation finance capital and working capital for the Company (the "Funding") and has confirmed Boies Schiller Flexner LLP ("BSF") as its litigation counsel. The Company has also put a Management Incentive Plan into place.

Litigation funding

The Funding shall primarily be used to progress the Company's dispute with the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco under the Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco for the Promotion and Protection of Investments, which entered into force on 14 February 2002, being a Bilateral Investment Treaty (the "BIT").

Emmerson's CPA funding counterparty (the "Funding Party") is one of the world's largest and most successful litigation finance companies and a significant institution within the legal financing industry. The detailed terms of the CPA are confidential but, in summary:

· Up to US$11,000,000 can be drawn down in tranches, at the Company's request, to satisfy litigation funding requirements and for general working capital purposes;

· The Funding shall be provided on a non-recourse basis and the Funding Party shall receive no return if the arbitration claim is unsuccessful; and

· In the case of a successful settlement or award, the return to the Funding Party shall be based upon the greater of a multiple of the final drawn-down amount or a percentage of the final award.

The Company notes that it has obtained litigation funding for its potential arbitration proceedings under the BIT within two months from the original Notification of Dispute, a process that can typically take six to nine months, oftentimes longer. The Company is of the opinion that the Funding will provide the platform to provide the best long-term return for shareholders.

Litigation Counsel

The Company has confirmed the appointment of Boies Schiller Flexner LLP ("BSF") as its litigation counsel. BSF have a highly successful track record in similar BIT arbitration cases, including some recent high-profile awards. The funding is now in place for BSF to commence work in the New Year on our case.

Management Incentive Plan (MIP)

To retain the services of certain Directors and members of the Company's management team who are important to the Company's ongoing management and the progress of the litigation, and who have important historical information and knowledge to contribute towards the litigation, the Company has established a long-term Management Incentive Program (the "MIP"). The retention of the assistance of the Directors and member of the Company's management team for the litigation through the MIP will allow the Company to maintain its compliance with the terms of the CPA.

In line with recent litigation funding cases, the named members of the MIP will be entitled to 6%, in aggregate, of any monies awarded as damages to the Company ("Management Entitlement Amount") through arbitration or any other means, including early settlement.

After the final determination of each participant's entitlement to the Management Entitlement Amount, any remaining balance of the Management Entitlement Amount which has not been distributed to participants will be returned to the Company.

Graham Clarke, Managing Director of Emmerson PLC commented:

"The Company has undertaken a tremendous amount of work and effort in a short period of time to secure substantial financing from a reliable funding partner. This CPA secures the medium-term future of the Company and we can now move forward with BSF as our legal partners to deliver the best possible outcome for the Company and its shareholders. BSF tend to only take on winning cases and their confidence in the case reinforces our confidence in the outcome".

[chester9] 02/1/2025 07:58

It's not only Emmersons lawyers it the litigation finance companies lawyers. If it is Burford they have plenty of experience money and international success to bring people to the table.

[mighunter] 02/1/2025 07:58

Source for this please?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/1/2025 07:54

Litigation funding now secured, off to the courts we go to seek engagement and compensation under the BIT, the Moroccan Gov have not acted to the code, our lawyers clearly have confidence or this funding and short time to get it secured would not have happened..

The Companies issued share capital consists of 1,139,096,966 ordinary shares

[maccamcd] 02/1/2025 07:40

To have Burford litigation services JV is big news for EML. and bad for the Moroccan govt.Not sure why Burford didn't want their association named?

[excellance] 30/12/2024 18:21

Never invest into anything linked to Africa.

[allinforabigprofit] 12/12/2024 09:37

They were also wrecked by a tax officer that tried to bankrupt the company. There is a pattern in Morocco, it ain't proper.

[korvet] 11/12/2024 09:12

See Sound energy has pulled off a nice little deal in Morocco, there's hope for us yet.

[gateside] 09/12/2024 12:39

Unable to get a quote to sell today

[korvet] 08/12/2024 14:16

It's not aimed at you.