Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[micky67] 06/8/2020 10:00

YasYas, I reckon the new FS will come along at the same time as the ESIA submission date and this will increase the figures to I suspect well over £2Bln NPV (which in itself is incredible. This new FS will lift the share price and I’ve got to agree with Cyber re the permits as once they’re approved the share price will rocket. Then jump again on a very good debt finance package(s). A buy-out could still occur as he was involved in the 600M sale of Papillion previously. I’d suspect we’d get more for this full package but HL maintained they were going to production but if a big vulture sees a tasty meal they’ll go for it. Anyway, all good as far as I’m concerned as long as they confirm that the share option error is amended (as clearly a typo error).

[sloppyg] 06/8/2020 09:56

On the debt/equity ratio the issue for me is will the debt funders require a fully funded project before committing funds; in which case the equity would need to get raised at the same time as any debt/offtake agreements.

Clearly, given the current SP, we do not want anymore equity (no mater how small) raised at these levels.

[cyberbub] 06/8/2020 09:50

IMO, in the absence of any bad news of course, it looks like the share price may be finding support around the 4p area. I imagine that the last of the placing holders who wanted to sell are now out, and newsflow is anticipated in the next 8 weeks. Having said that, I wouldn't expect any significant volume to return until early Sept.

[cyberbub] 06/8/2020 09:46

Re the options, as I suggested they may issue another tranche next year at exercise prices of say 20-25p.Remember there is still a possibility that the company as a whole may have been snapped up within 6 months once it has got its ESIA and mining permits. IMO it's very very hard to see that being at less than 20p, and likely 30p given the massive resource and outstanding economics.NAI

[yasyas1] 06/8/2020 09:44

Great even lower today. Need some micky pep talk. Where r u micky!!

[sportbilly1976] 06/8/2020 09:43

buy & sell 150k both at 3.95p currently

[sportbilly1976] 06/8/2020 09:40

They're hardly stretching exercise prices though ....

the one positive for me however, is that they are realistically only likely to be exercised on a sale of Company or when the project is complete and the Company steadily producing the $330mln EBIT and the share price is multiples of the exercise prices

[1airbag] 06/8/2020 08:41

My view is the incentives are there now for the Directors to deliver, which is a positive.

The bad side to this however, is we, collectively as share owners, get to pay for it. Also the Directors do not have the risk because if the share price goes down they simply don't bother to exercise their options.

Personally I think it is a price worth paying.

I had been slightly worried that the key player, HL, did not have a much bigger shareholding. This news will hopefully address that.

[cyberbub] 06/8/2020 07:58

Thanks for that Russ I hadn't seen it. Very very interesting!Salt Lake have done their big capital raising at a 60:40 debt:equity ratio which is a little disappointing, more typically it's 80:20 for high-return projects.However, on every aspect, EML have better economics and NPV than Salt Lake. NPV and post-tax cashflows are 3x higher in fact! Of course Salt Lake is initially a smaller project, but the key comparator is the post-tax IRR which is 28% at Salt Lake and 38% at EML - a very significant improvement.Note that Hayden has said he has indicative offers of $260M in debt. I would hope that might increase to at least $300M. That would mean we had to raise $100M (75:25 ratio). That sounds like a lot but it all depends on what share price it is raised at....Note that Salt Lake's market cap immediately before the fundraising was GBP 120M. That would be 15p per share at EML.Personally I would consider a fundraising of $100M at 13p (discounted from 15p at the time) an acceptable outcome for shareholders in the long term. But I would hope for a higher price and/or a higher proportion of debt, given the excellent economics (=less risk for lenders).Just my views NAI.

[micky67] 06/8/2020 07:46

Tom, an amended FS on the cards to incorporate the whole site and resource and will also include the SoP plant facility etc. This will improve the figures and also hopefully enable EML to secure more debt financing. ESIA/SIA will be amended too to include the expanded project. Once completed they will be submitted to the government for licence approval and any ancillary permitting relating to the project. The new FS will be the main player for concrete agreements to be nailed down for the debt financing. It’s looking good though as most the ESIA/SIA works were nearing completion so they’ll probs be about ready now.

[homebrewruss] 06/8/2020 06:43

Don't know if there is any read across from the SO4 financing yesterday. Shareholders (including me) have been hoping for a mainly debt based financing but in the end have had to settle for quite a lot of dilution plus some debt.

Not clear yet is this is indicative of debt being generally hard to get hold of right now, the aggressive production timetable or other factors. Obviously each project is different so it maybe irrelevant but worth considering.
On the plus side they are now funded to production.

[tomredman93] 05/8/2020 23:25

So what’s the likely next steps from here?

[apfindley] 05/8/2020 23:11

Your confusion is orchestrated.

[lew82] 05/8/2020 22:35

Apfindley, as cottoner said earlier: £0.05 is 5p. £0.10 is 10p. 0.05p is not 5p. 0.10p is not 10p. That's the confusion.

[yasyas1] 05/8/2020 22:34

U not even slightly funny. Go go

[qazwsxedc69] 05/8/2020 22:26

Go away clown. You embarrassed yourself on the AAZ thread and are doing so here now.You created that alias today. Have a good look at yourself. Have some self respect.

[davidbrentsflipflop] 05/8/2020 22:22

going back to 1p

[apfindley] 05/8/2020 22:18

I dont see it as even remotely confusing. The decimals are not hard to grasp. There won't be a confirmation as one isn't needed.The GC low options are essentially freebies - didnt the other directors get such when they came here? I think they did and they still hold them.The rest of the options for all directors are very reasonable and range from 5p to 10p.They have to buy those with their own cash when they decide to exercise those options.How much more simply does it need writing?

[grannyboy] 05/8/2020 22:13

Just because the BOD announce share options does not mean there is going to be an immediate about turn in the share price just because some are starting to fret about the fall, if you look at most companies charts it shows ups and downs, and just because you bought shares dosn't mean the share price is going to keep going up, so stop wanting consoling every minute of the day..

"Patience is bitter, but it's fruit is sweet"

[lew82] 05/8/2020 21:54

apfindley not at all I'm about 23% down on my investment & I averaged down by buying more yesterday. The fact remains the rns is confusing, im sure its an honest mistake and a confirmation of such tomorrow is all that is needed.

[apfindley] 05/8/2020 21:38

Lew .Did you sell up hoping for a better reentry below 4p and have been wrongfooted this afternoon?

[micky67] 05/8/2020 21:09

KCACO, cheers pal lol. I must be pretty good as had a thread called Micky1 on LSE last month 😂. Also have had mentions on other boards saying that’s got to be Micky lol. Hopefully my wee punt on N4P will work out over the next week or so and we can all watch EML start rising to decent levels over the next couple of weeks. They will hopefully clarify the options price tomorrow as that shouldn’t have happened but at least it’s put the spark back into this little beaut.
Lew, always stay positive mate especially when the information is available if you do the digging. Remember, I’ve got my kitchen sink in here 😂😂😂😂

[kcaco] 05/8/2020 20:51

Micky is great .

[cyberbub] 05/8/2020 20:47

This is an approx 7% dilution to motivate the management team to deliver. I don't have a problem with that level of dilution if it leads to big gains for all shareholders - it means the management have more skin in the game. I would only say that it would have been nice to have had the top tranche at say 15p/20p not 10p. Perhaps new options at those prices might be issued next year say?It seems to me that there was a little bit of support around 4p today eg. the nice delayed 750k buy. Let's see if it holds in the coming days.GLA NAI