Easyjet Share Discussion Threads

[thornintheside] 21/5/2022 01:08

Correct greco. It was an unlikely reaction, but it's all true. After the second RI (Sept 2021) easyjet had twice as many shares in issue compared to 2019. When the shares hit £8, the company's market cap was higher than in 2019 (equal to £16 share price for 2019). That's not according to me - it's according to basic arithmetic and the facts.

Irrational market excitement plus short covering etc was skewing the behaviour. Check the share numbers and market cap and you will see the situation clearly.

But even if you don't bother with any of that, just take a look at the profits from 2019 (the best year for commercial aviation EVER). Easyjet made about £350m. That's the target for this company in a couple of years from now, which would give the current price a p/e of 11 for this bus company of the skies.

But this year the business is already sitting on a half billion pound loss and definitely won't turn a profit by the end of the year. If everything goes well, easyj might be two years away from mediocre profits and will still hold significant debt. BUT we are about to enter a recession, so more likely pushing that p/e and profits even further into the future. When the market eventually figures this out, the share price will drop to something which reflects actual earnings and future prospects. My guess is about £4 or lower.

[greco600] 20/5/2022 21:11

Its an interesting point, but based on what you've saying that means when there share price reached 8 in October 21 according to you that equivalent to 16 pounds a share.That seems pretty unlikely considering how things where back then "i mean effectively £16 a share,"

[thornintheside] 20/5/2022 16:21

btw, look at the Dow. A bear market has started. We are heading for recession. £4 and lower is coming imo. dyor (and try to keep up with the number of shares issued!!!!).

[thornintheside] 20/5/2022 16:18

km18, if 'wealthoracle' can't even look at recent history and see that there's now twice as many shares in EZJ and the share price HASN'T LAGGED other airlines, then I don't think it's going to be much of an 'oracle'.

[thornintheside] 20/5/2022 16:13

Share price here is almost at 2019 levels. Don't forget that EZJ has had TWO rights issues during the pandemic and issued new shares so that there are virtually twice as many now as there were in 2019. That would make today's price of 520p the same as £10.40 in 2019. EZJ has NOT LAGGED in share price recovery. The shares have nearly completely recovered. There is no 'recovery story' to be had with these shares. Look at the market cap and the price/earnings ratio. On current prices the shares are WAY OVERPRICED!!!

This business lost another half a billion pounds in H1. In January the ceo said that bookings were close to 2019 levels for summer but clearly either that is untrue, or EZJ were selling seats much cheaper and costs are way higher. Either way, the ceo is running out of runway because the next quarter IS the summer season. He can't keep saying 'close to 2019 volumes' and still keep showing huge losses. I reckon it will take EZJ several years to clear its debts and become profitable. By the end of this year, I suspect the ceo will be found out and he will be gone.

[km18] 20/5/2022 13:47

Easyjet (EZJ) posted interims yesterday. The low cost carrier posted a headline loss before tax of £545 million down from H1 2021: £701 million loss. Total revenue increased by 524% to £1,498 million (H1 2021: £240 million) predominantly due to an increase in capacity flown and ancillary products continuing to deliver incremental revenue. Group headline costs increased by 117% to £2,043 million (H1 2021: £941 million), primarily due to the increase in flown capacity.
EasyJet has continued to allocate aircraft to the markets where we demand is at its strongest. In the second half of the year leisure and domestic routes have fully recovered with capacity at 113% and 104% of FY19 levels respectively, whilst business and city traffic continues to recover with demand currently below FY19 levels. Travel is recovering, so will revenues, profits and EPS. Share price is still roughly 50% below pre-COVID levels and has lagged other names in the sector. Like with many travel names there is a recovery story here, although near term share price lacks momentum. BUY.

...from WealthOracleAM

[thornintheside] 19/5/2022 22:45

Expecting this year to end with a record breaking volume at the beginning of a new recession is probably unrealistic.

[thornintheside] 19/5/2022 22:41

Impressive that easyjet managed to finish flat on the day when the main index was down about 2%. I strongly suspect that there's a delayed reaction though.

ezj revenue for Q2 is less than Q1, which is amazing considering that the covid restrictions were being reduced throughout that quarter. Johan made the same promise about the summer being close to 2019 volumes that he made in January, BUT if that is really the case, how come revenue dropped in Q2? I am sceptical. I also wonder just how much of the confirmed bookings for summer have been carried fwd as credits from cancellations in the previous periods. I've got £500 myself that I'm hoping to spend on a flight to somewhere with less onerous covid restrictions.

What everyone is turning a blind eye to is the 'cost of living crisis'. If interest rates go up much further, along with energy and general inflation, a lot of easyjet customers will be considering a UK holiday. Also the pound has lost 10% against the euro in the last two months, making foreign holidays even more expensive. Budget airline customers by definition do not have bottomless pockets. Add in high fuel costs and wage inflation and I reckon we will see £4 here quite soon. DYOR.

[iandippie] 19/5/2022 06:31

They have to have 1 crew per 50 passenger seats. They took a row of seats out of planes that had 154 passenger seats so that they could fly with 3 cabin crew instead of 4. It's more to do with avoiding having to cancel flights when there was a lot of crew off sick with Omicron.

[ram376s] 18/5/2022 09:09

Thinking not drop that low .GDR primed for possible multibagger . 300 nurses to train new test .

[milliecusto] 16/5/2022 11:48

Where are we looking, sub 400p

[waterloo01] 11/5/2022 14:27

Back in in a small way having sold in the £6's.

[zaxarobal] 09/5/2022 18:11

Budget airline EasyJet is removing seatsfrom its airplanes so they can fly withfewer cabin crew amid a labor squeeze

[time for common sense] 09/5/2022 18:05

As always Hugo nails it. MORE UKRAINE BBC U2 BULL? / HUGO TALKShttps://hugotalks.com/2022/05/09/more-ukraine-bbc-u2-bull?-hugo-talks/

[staggie65] 09/5/2022 13:12

I’m in on this stock, no sentiment involved just a stayer in the market and well placed to make a recovery. An industry insider has told me that sector wise no concerns and even a takeover possibility.

[davidro77] 09/5/2022 10:25

These headlines are not helping sentiment but at least the demand appears to be there https://news.sky.com/story/manchester-and-birmingham-airports-chaos-as-passengers-left-to-stand-for-hours-in-long-queues-for-security-12609201

[davidro77] 09/5/2022 10:23

Don't panic they will make loads of money again now they're stripping out the back row of seats Unfortunate that the actions of one unhinged dictator can tip the entire world into recession, it was looking good for a recovery until the invasion

[hornetnest] 05/5/2022 23:12

It went very quiet here after the last results announcement. The ceo says improved trading (as he says every quarter) but the business books another half a billion pound loss even with all this claimed enthusiasm for the 'summer season'. Last quarter the ceo said that the business was almost at 2019 levels. Turns out that either that's a lie or costs have risen so much that the business is still lossmaking even at near 2019 levels.

In case anyone here doesn't know the significance of 2019 levels; that was the busiest year EVER for aviation. So it looks like the only way easyjet can start to clear its debt, apart from yet another rights issues, is for aviation to get even more popular during what will be another big recession. Easyjet customers are looking at a triple whammy - rising mortgage costs and general rises in cost of living; rising taxes to pay for covid and the Ukraine conflict; massive drop in the pound due to Brexit impact.

easyjet is heading back down again now - £4 will be coming soon I strongly suspect. DYOR. A recession is coming - there's no avoiding it imo.

[ttny2004] 04/5/2022 07:14

As covid restrictions now eased in most countries airlines such as Easyjet and BA are becoming full, which is good news, but poses challenges of having enough ground and crew to meet this pent up demand.So many have waited so long to travel again and now they can.

[montyhedge] 27/4/2022 07:56

To me great demand for flights, I saw it with BA last week when I flew.Must be the same for Easyjet.

[kfr20] 20/4/2022 20:59

*good shift, lol.

[kfr20] 20/4/2022 20:59

Airlines putting in a food shift stateside today. Can't be long before EZJ starts to get going. Easy hold this one.

[pinemartin9] 14/4/2022 08:11

Yes, 700 next target for me. Sit and wait.