Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[imnotspartacus] 24/1/2024 13:58

Cough cough ahem

[lord gnome] 24/1/2024 13:55

Louis Brandels - new name on me - only registered in ADVFN today and has made two posts, both knocking DEC (7605 and 7615). Draw your own conclusions

[zhenya21] 24/1/2024 13:54

Going back to 1200+ You can take that to the bank

[stevensupertrader] 24/1/2024 13:53

DEC is flying over £9 .

[zhenya21] 24/1/2024 13:53

Mkt cap 425m ... its way too low.Needs to rise 50 percent from here

[aleman] 24/1/2024 13:47

So the UK is track for volume of maybe 450k today at current rates and US maybe 200k?

[aleman] 24/1/2024 13:40

Pre-working cap operating cashflow was around $275m in H1, which says the strong cashfow is there for now. One would imagine that over $500m per annum and falling could pay down $1.35bn debt very quickly if not also used for dividends and reinvestment. As people say, though, it's all about the assumptions. No doubt we'll have a clearer picture in a weeks time.

[zhenya21] 24/1/2024 13:38

Mkt cap 425m ... its way too low.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/1/2024 13:32

#Skinny, is that some of our UK shares getting escorted off and marched over the hill to the USofA.. :o)

A well coordinated attack on the company, scare stories emerge, senators demand answers, the green brigade pile in with shorts adding a drag as soon as the NYSE listing goes live and down it goes, meanwhile our esteemed counter party buyers in the US are laughing while mopping up our cheap UK shares paying a 30% yield, an unprecedented return, they must think all their thanks giving days have come at once..

Trying to stand back and look at the sequence of events objectively and not from the viewpoint of anyone under fire in the trenches is not easy while sitting on a paper loss, easier to follow the herd..?

Our Q4 update here next week 31st..

[bountyhunter] 24/1/2024 13:28

For a slide by slide rebuttal just read the Oak Bloke's article from yesterday evening - the link is in the header.

[scrwal] 24/1/2024 13:24

DEC aren't helping matters by apparently delaying the production of their ARO model/presentation. The last one was Nov 2022 for the liability recorded at 30 Jun 2022.
Personally if I was responding to a report I thought was somewhat spurious I would put some meat on my response by putting forward facts and figures etc that invalidate what said report is stating rather than a generalised denial. Should be simple to do if your figures stack up.

[louis brandeis] 24/1/2024 13:18

Tunley

Gilt yields, mortgage rates, annuity rates, actuarial assumptions etc.. change all the time, millions analyse/forecast them and they are the result of millions of inputs.

Diversified's forecasts, on the other hand, are built on the input of not that many and contradict the majority of the narrow field analysts that work within this area and conveniently come to figures that work over decades of uncertainties.

Funny how everyone else is eager to sell when Diversified buy. Rusty doesn't hold a magic bean. He is an opportunist and circumstances seem to be running out for him and shareholders in my own opinion.

I hold the view that the equity is more than likely worth zilch. It is just a question of time to when the music stops and the equity holders find themselves without a chair. Could be many years away but I have seen it all too often before.

I find the cashflow comments by Snowcap very interesting and would like Diversified to specifically respond to the questions raised on this issue. If they could answer to these concerns I may be prepared to reconsider my view.

[aleman] 24/1/2024 13:09

12 trades since noon. Smallish, totalling 2k+. It's hard to link to but if you click on this static chart, with the ticker embedded, and then click on "trades", you should get it, I think, with 15 minute delay.

[skinny] 24/1/2024 13:02

Aleman, I thought US premarket trading started @8am EST - about 2 minutes ago?

[bountyhunter] 24/1/2024 12:59

New York trading today:

[aleman] 24/1/2024 12:40

How can the US be posting trades already (and trading around $11.50/£9.05)? I've heard about premarket trading in the US before but I'm not familiar with the mechanics. Anyone know what these early trades are or how they work?

[tag57] 24/1/2024 12:29

Yep, looks like quite a battle going on between shorters and investors. Hopefully the tighter share price over the last couple of hours is the last vestiges of the shorters drag on the share price We shall see.

[tunley] 24/1/2024 12:21

Forward assumptions on such lengths of time is ridiculous?

Like those other cowboy instruments you mean : - long dated gilt yields? mortgage rates, annuity rates, actuarial assumptions of human longevity?

What makes you say such a fundamentally stupid thing?

And 'We should be thanking Snowflake'??? That's a novel concept!

Going to go and lie down for a bit...

[apollocreed1] 24/1/2024 12:16

@Lord Gnome - I wouldn't think is much volume on spreadex. I have a friend who bought £100k notional of DEC in his IG account about 2 years ago. The same day he did that, IG were forced to hedge themselves by actually buying the stock on the market, so there was an RNS declaring their purchase of DEC shares. I assume they did that because DEC are particularly volatile and small for IG to provide an unhedged market in.

[apollocreed1] 24/1/2024 12:12

@Cassini - Great explanation. Thanks.

[louis brandeis] 24/1/2024 12:08

Diversified's note that there has been no change to its operation is perhaps true. But that isn't being questioned here. What is being questioned is Diversified's assumptions on its forward prospects, and rightly so. We should be thanking Snowcap for questioning the figures and spending time to delve into its assumptions and question them. Who else has the inclination or time to delve deep into these matters? I bet most here haven't.

Forward assumptions on such lengths of time is ridiculous. If wells are to be retired so far into the future it leaves open a huge risk on US policy change.

Diversified's business model is dependant on being able to raise capital over the years to fund expansion. The level of debt and the fall in market cap are making this increasingly difficult and is probably why we witnessed the novel capital raise a short while back. When a company starts executing such ideas - rather than keeping to plain capital raises - the whole model starts to look questionable and smacks of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I wonder what the current incremental returns on capital are? With a fall in equity and increases in interest rates (debt) and inflation I would hazard a guess we are past the point of diminishing marginal return.