Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[oneillshaun] 12/10/2023 12:55

I don't see the share price moving significantly up, and the management seem to have there own playbook and I think can easily drop to 60p before it gets close to 100p again, another crazy funding stunt like they will destroy the trust

[1knocker] 12/10/2023 12:04

Surely if you 'get close to that' all is well, oneillshaun? On the other hand, if you think this is a dog, a value trap, you should be getting out now before worse befalls?

[oneillshaun] 12/10/2023 09:09

This is going to take a year or so to rebound 100p plus, shocking management and horrendous communication.The dividend is very attractive but the falling share price ends up leaving you in a hole even if you reinvest, happy to admins I jumped on at 108p now have an average of 98p, if I can get close to that I will be seeing out of this dog.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/10/2023 16:51

11.10.2023 - Exxon Mobil is buying Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock deal valued at USD59.5BN, its largest buyout since acquiring Mobil two decades ago, creating a colossal fracking operator in West Texas.

Including debt, Exxon is committing about USD64.5BN to the acquisition, leaving no doubt of the Texas energy companies commitment to fossil fuels..

Might edge our next deal in scale, but a sign of MnA in the space while gas was on a low.. :o)

[2wild] 11/10/2023 16:26

Some always have, mainly in Oil and gas companies who are committed to net zero by 2050.

[valuehurts] 11/10/2023 12:48

ESG funds are buying oil stocks now.

[fordtin] 11/10/2023 12:45

Cheers lab, just wish I could make sense of it.

Refraining from the opportunity to buy millions of shares iro 65p makes the buyback program feel like a token gesture attempting to appease us.

They seem to be preserving capital for something. I just hope whatever it is, it’s worth much more per share than that missed opportunity.

[lab305] 11/10/2023 09:27

fordtin excellent summary on scale of buybacks . Thank you.

[fordtin] 11/10/2023 08:43

LLB - re "being seen to be going greener",
'green energy' companies haven't fared any better than DEC recently;

GRID = blue
DEC = red



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[renewed1] 11/10/2023 08:18

Som of the best opportunities happen when the management of the big funds are forced to dump categories. Tobacco, oil,
If a long term holder for divi they are giving us a great opportunity. Just reinvest the divis.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/10/2023 07:45

#Lab305, some funds are now mandated to dispose of Oil and Gas holdings regardless in the drive towards being greener, and being seen to be going greener, it is nuts to give up the dividend income, but votes were held, decisions made and PF management results in sales..

ref - Norwegian sovereign wealth fund for 1 and they are enormous holders of equities..

Many PIs have been a buyers of OnG, but unlikely to move the dial much if a fund is selling down and we have not yet seen a single TR1 despite the register of top 10 holders looking different to a few months ago..?

[lab305] 11/10/2023 07:38

Well yesterday the recent recovery from 65p faltered and only 100k shares purchased very late in the day after 4 pm. Certainly insufficient to stop the rot.
NATURAL GAS
3.433 +0.051 +1.51%
Last year when the share price was dropping the falling gas price was blamed despite the high level of hedging. It has been rising for some time now. Remember Rusty saying that between 3 and 4 they make a lot of money. The pound dollar is around a very favourable 1.22.
So we are in very favourable conditions and yet we find ourselves at an unimaginable 12 months ago 75p. The new excuse is redemptions and may indeed be correct but why would any institution in need of money throw away what must be one of it's most lucrative income streams ?

[fordtin] 11/10/2023 07:26

"The Company will provide instructions to buy back Shares as and when its management believes that, at the time of instruction, these repurchases will enhance earnings per Share and would be in the best interests of shareholders generally. From time to time, the Company may also provide one or more time-limited, irrevocable, non-discretionary instructions to Stifel to make trading decisions and repurchase Shares within those instructions independently of the Company. Any purchases of shares made during closed periods pursuant to the Programme shall be made independently of and uninfluenced by the Company. "

Recent Director buys tell us this is not a closed period.

[fordtin] 11/10/2023 07:19

Another underwhelming day for the buyback sceme.



11/10/23
 
 
 




 
 
 
 


Shares bought back
 
 
2,863,054


Total cost of buybacks
 
 
£2,241,444.12


 
 
 
 


Average price (p)
 
 
78.29


Dividend saved p.a.
 
 
£408,867.53


 
 
 
 


% of original issue
 
 
0.29%


% of current issue
 
 
0.30%


 
 
 
 


Buyback duration (calendar days)
 
 
107


Buyback duration (days market open)
 
 
72


 
 
 
 


Average buybacks per calendar day
 
 
26,758


Average buybacks per business day
 
 
39,765


 
 
 
 


Maximum buybacks Remaining
 
 
94,546,946


Maximum spend remaining
 
 
£95,158,555.88


 
 
 
 


Maximum calendar days remaining
 
 
264


Maximum market days remaining
 
 
183

[10076968] 10/10/2023 15:31

Cheers LLB.

[scrwal] 10/10/2023 15:09

I'm waiting for the ARO supplement which should be published in the next month or so. It will be interesting to see if the figures used reflect what the company is actually doing.

[fordtin] 10/10/2023 15:03

I did contact them earlier in the year regarding buybacks. They came back with something about playing a balancing act by carefully evaluating all uses of capital including paying down debt, dividends, buybacks and accretive acquisitions.

If they can't evaluate the current situation, maybe a few of them need to be pushed off the fence at the next AGM.

[lab305] 10/10/2023 14:51

Of course. Investor relations used to be excellent and on the ball but they either ignore messages or just answer with platitudes. You try you might have more luck.

[fordtin] 10/10/2023 14:42

lab - have you asked DEC why they've been so reluctant to buy back at recent prices?

[lab305] 10/10/2023 13:53

Tag57 I have seen this argument many times. Since they can borrow at 8% and dividends cost them a few days ago over 21% and today 19% I cannot imagine why they dither.
In answer to your questions at these prices I would buy between 500k and a million a day and I would expect the share price to recover to between 90p and 105p in short order. Their limit is 25% of the average daily volume.

[tag57] 10/10/2023 13:27

LAB305, how much more of a buyback would you like to see and how much do you think it will increase the share price by?
Personally I would like them to protect liquidity / pay down the RCF and let the share price take care of itself.

[johnhemming] 10/10/2023 13:22

>The only other mechanism I know to explain the drop is forced redemptions from funds that held it.

There has been quite a discussion about people selling Open Ended Income Funds. Those result in automatic sales of the underlying securities. DEC is big in a number of these funds (because of the yield)