Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 02/11/2023 19:48

Which Gove bonds did you buy at over 6%

[lab305] 02/11/2023 19:03

90p and 72p. I already invested all of the proceeds. The first lot went to gov bonds at over 6%. The recent sale I invested in a share that is up £14k over 5 days. I certainty won't be earning 18% more like 7% but I will sleep at nights .As I said after 6 years invested my patience snapped and I wish I had been braver and sold the lot at 90p. I reinvested both because I saw an opportunity and to stop me weakening and reinvesting back in Dec. 15 months of decline may be finally over for you holders so good luck with them. By the way the top was 144p and they were there for a few days in August 2022. Hindsight eh !

[tag57] 02/11/2023 17:53

Mark, I think he sold half a few months ago and the rest last week.

[marksp2011] 02/11/2023 17:50

When did LAB sell?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/11/2023 17:02

+5 pence that is more like it, and no buybacks either, a tidy ride back to break even, but happy to hold and mop up the dividends.. :o)

[2wild] 02/11/2023 17:00

Closed up 9.5% from yesterday's low point. Hopefully, the bottom is in as results in 2 weeks and Ex Dib in 4.

[cassini] 02/11/2023 16:38

Back in completely now.

Whether that's a good move only time will tell but I've shaved a few pennies off my average price, although I'm still well underwater.

[johnhemming] 02/11/2023 11:17

@bluemango I think the reason for the increase today is the link to yields. Quite a lot of DEC is held through income funds which move in line with yields more generally. (OEICs sell/buy the underlying security)

[11_percent] 02/11/2023 10:43

Bought a few.....divi just too good.

[bluemango] 02/11/2023 10:41

Recovery since US interest rates were held, suggests market concern was mainly focused on the debt - as suspected.

[asp5] 02/11/2023 10:00

Lab, I disgaree with your two main assertions.

1) "more focus on complex derivative trading". Please refer to my post 6004 where I address this point. Furthermore look at the FY 2016 report (pre IPO), p47 under the section "commodity risk". The last para clearly states, "DGO’s normal policy is to .....keep options and swaps in place for 12-24 months in advance to minimize commodity risk and create stabilized and predictable cash flow".

DEC has followed and continues to follow a highly consistent, transparent & steady strategy as regards hedging. I accept the accounting around this topic is not simple, however the volume of hedges has essentially increased to match the increase in cashflow DEC generates (this is good) as per its business model. Complexity has remained the same.


2) "Remember Long life, low decline?" We still have them. In every corporate presentation since IPO including the latest from May DEC confirm this. On p3 DEC describe what their business model is focused on, "Optimising long-life, low-decline producing assets". Can anyone name a single other gas producer in the US market with a lower decline rate than DEC? My post 6042 tried to clarify my understanding of this topic, so will not repeat myself.

Good luck all & DYOR.

[cassini] 01/11/2023 16:21

Back in, albeit very modestly.

[action] 01/11/2023 14:48

Time to buy when hits 62p

[1knocker] 01/11/2023 12:42

There are always buyers and sellers, whatever the price.
Have you ever come across a publicly traded share with any significant number of shares in issue where the response to a modest buy order was 'Sorry, none to be had. We just can't get hold of any shares to fill your, or anyone else's, order'?

[stevensupertrader] 01/11/2023 12:05

I like to know too? Unless those shareholders throw in their towels 😊

[renewed1] 01/11/2023 10:49

When DEC are buying back 350k per day where are this nos of shares coming from. Who is so desperate to sell at these prices???

[11_percent] 01/11/2023 10:38

2020 Covid low is 55.2......will it get there again.

[lab305] 01/11/2023 10:32

asp you are so wrong when you say only the perception has changed. The company is very different from what it was in 2017. Remember long life low decline ? In the first years there was practically no decline at all. What they termed legacy wells had close to zero decline rate . Conventional wells only , no shale. This has morphed completely and has much more focus on complex derivative trading than producing gas. Even accountants now find the results challenging. They have made big mistakes especially not taking advantage during covid of once in a lifetime opportunities cited several times by Rusty during the period. No this is a very different company now and not for the better.I was stupid enough to believe Rusty and stayed for the "enjoyable ride ."

[oneillshaun] 01/11/2023 08:59

Lol breakeven by 2027 that's is massively dependent on the share price not dropping any further

[asp5] 01/11/2023 08:10

Hi Tag, you are correct in your comment, however for those who bought in at 120+, they have 3 choices:

1) Sell now, crysatize a 50+% loss as they feel DEC is a lost cause and try to reinvest elsewhere. In order to breakeven they would need a 100% gain in their alternative investment.

2) Hold (assuming they feel DEC is not a lost cause), wait till end of 2027 and essentially breakeven from the dividends as per my earlier post (assuming this price level is the new normal).

3) Buy at these levels (capital permitting) to reduce breakeven point, wait until end of 2027 and make a profit.

The investment thesis around DEC remains essentially the same since IPO, it is the market perception that has changed (ESG, interest rate env etc.).

While nobody can predict the future, option 1 strikes me as the worst option in the current environment.

[oneillshaun] 01/11/2023 07:35

If they don't maintain the dividend this will die very fast

[cassini] 31/10/2023 22:31

Ex-dividend is on the 30th of November.

We had what felt to me like quite an unusual pump and dump last ex-div date.

The price went up 7p in the two market days beforehand and went down 12p in the following three market days. All on a ~3.5p divi.

It's going to be an interesting month ahead.

[1knocker] 31/10/2023 18:49

Everything turns on the dividend.
If the dividend holds, even those who bought their holdings at the very top of the market (low 130s from memory) will do very nicely, with a return on capital of about 10%, and those who bought at the bottom will be in clover with a return on capital of over 20%.

Its an odd state of affairs. There has been no dividend cut nor the threat of one, gas looks set fair for decades to come, broker predictions have held pretty steady around 150 /160 for as long as I can remember, and the share price has halved!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/10/2023 18:34

Next update circa 14.11.2023

IF the progressive dividend policy is maintained we could/should see a raise to 4.50 cents..?

4.00 cents *4 received
4.25 cents *4 received
4.375 cents *4 received (29.12.2023)

Perhaps the catalyst for the share price trend reversal could be the confidence coming from the next dividend announcement in 2 weeks..?

NG1: 3.58
HHub futures 3.6-4.6 out to Jan 2025

[tag57] 31/10/2023 18:29

ASP5, while I agree with what you wrote it does not help those who invested at higher share price
Especially after what feels like the unrelenting downward fall in share price
I have not sold any of my shares, in fact have continued to add to my position. I believe that the fundamentals remain strong and we should see the full benefit of the latest acquisition in the next quarterly results.
I am expecting the divi to be maintained (hopefully increased) but the share price drop always adds the anxiety of “what if” as I watch the capital loss build up.
Anyway, I am of the opinion that gas prices will continue to build as the US export capacity grows in the coming years and US gas prices align more with international prices. With a couple of years of compounding divis at 20% pa I will be a happy chappy.