Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/10/2023 08:45

#Lab305, some funds are now mandated to dispose of Oil and Gas holdings regardless in the drive towards being greener, and being seen to be going greener, it is nuts to give up the dividend income, but votes were held, decisions made and PF management results in sales..

ref - Norwegian sovereign wealth fund for 1 and they are enormous holders of equities..

Many PIs have been a buyers of OnG, but unlikely to move the dial much if a fund is selling down and we have not yet seen a single TR1 despite the register of top 10 holders looking different to a few months ago..?

[lab305] 11/10/2023 08:38

Well yesterday the recent recovery from 65p faltered and only 100k shares purchased very late in the day after 4 pm. Certainly insufficient to stop the rot.
NATURAL GAS
3.433 +0.051 +1.51%
Last year when the share price was dropping the falling gas price was blamed despite the high level of hedging. It has been rising for some time now. Remember Rusty saying that between 3 and 4 they make a lot of money. The pound dollar is around a very favourable 1.22.
So we are in very favourable conditions and yet we find ourselves at an unimaginable 12 months ago 75p. The new excuse is redemptions and may indeed be correct but why would any institution in need of money throw away what must be one of it's most lucrative income streams ?

[fordtin] 11/10/2023 08:26

"The Company will provide instructions to buy back Shares as and when its management believes that, at the time of instruction, these repurchases will enhance earnings per Share and would be in the best interests of shareholders generally. From time to time, the Company may also provide one or more time-limited, irrevocable, non-discretionary instructions to Stifel to make trading decisions and repurchase Shares within those instructions independently of the Company. Any purchases of shares made during closed periods pursuant to the Programme shall be made independently of and uninfluenced by the Company. "

Recent Director buys tell us this is not a closed period.

[fordtin] 11/10/2023 08:19

Another underwhelming day for the buyback sceme.



11/10/23
 
 
 




 
 
 
 


Shares bought back
 
 
2,863,054


Total cost of buybacks
 
 
£2,241,444.12


 
 
 
 


Average price (p)
 
 
78.29


Dividend saved p.a.
 
 
£408,867.53


 
 
 
 


% of original issue
 
 
0.29%


% of current issue
 
 
0.30%


 
 
 
 


Buyback duration (calendar days)
 
 
107


Buyback duration (days market open)
 
 
72


 
 
 
 


Average buybacks per calendar day
 
 
26,758


Average buybacks per business day
 
 
39,765


 
 
 
 


Maximum buybacks Remaining
 
 
94,546,946


Maximum spend remaining
 
 
£95,158,555.88


 
 
 
 


Maximum calendar days remaining
 
 
264


Maximum market days remaining
 
 
183

[10076968] 10/10/2023 16:31

Cheers LLB.

[scrwal] 10/10/2023 16:09

I'm waiting for the ARO supplement which should be published in the next month or so. It will be interesting to see if the figures used reflect what the company is actually doing.

[fordtin] 10/10/2023 16:03

I did contact them earlier in the year regarding buybacks. They came back with something about playing a balancing act by carefully evaluating all uses of capital including paying down debt, dividends, buybacks and accretive acquisitions.

If they can't evaluate the current situation, maybe a few of them need to be pushed off the fence at the next AGM.

[lab305] 10/10/2023 15:51

Of course. Investor relations used to be excellent and on the ball but they either ignore messages or just answer with platitudes. You try you might have more luck.

[fordtin] 10/10/2023 15:42

lab - have you asked DEC why they've been so reluctant to buy back at recent prices?

[lab305] 10/10/2023 14:53

Tag57 I have seen this argument many times. Since they can borrow at 8% and dividends cost them a few days ago over 21% and today 19% I cannot imagine why they dither.
In answer to your questions at these prices I would buy between 500k and a million a day and I would expect the share price to recover to between 90p and 105p in short order. Their limit is 25% of the average daily volume.

[tag57] 10/10/2023 14:27

LAB305, how much more of a buyback would you like to see and how much do you think it will increase the share price by?
Personally I would like them to protect liquidity / pay down the RCF and let the share price take care of itself.

[johnhemming] 10/10/2023 14:22

>The only other mechanism I know to explain the drop is forced redemptions from funds that held it.

There has been quite a discussion about people selling Open Ended Income Funds. Those result in automatic sales of the underlying securities. DEC is big in a number of these funds (because of the yield)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/10/2023 13:57

#10076968 - same, it took 8/9 days last time, then it was withdrawn and re-credited at a worse FX.. :o)

Due date was 29th so it will be in before 10 working days..

[lab305] 10/10/2023 13:22

Excuses excuses. They could combat redemptions (just a fancy name for sellers) easily with buybacks but they just play at it. Bloody frustrating. Come on Stifel press some buttons.

[cassini] 10/10/2023 13:04

So it was all to do with spiking interest rates then?

The drop, I mean.

I thought DEC's loans were fixed for their duration and all covered by hedging/selling ahead, so why target it this way?

The only other mechanism I know to explain the drop is forced redemptions from funds that held it.

[10076968] 10/10/2023 11:12

Anybody not rec'd their Divi yet?I'm with Barclays and still waiting.

[2wild] 09/10/2023 23:55

The closing DEC auction price was actually above the high for the day, this bolds well for further rises tomorrow.

[tom111] 09/10/2023 19:19

The hatred is so deep now on both sides this will go on for generations.You can see what will happen if Israel carry out their threats of stopping medical aid food supplies fuel and electricity as well as the bombing, public opinion will swing the other way.A Palestinian spokeman stated on Sky News that no civilan people had been killed with a mind set like that theres no hope.

[1knocker] 09/10/2023 18:22

I doubt this war will much affect gas prices, or for long.

I don't see it spreading, as no one much likes the Palestinians. No doubt Israel will settle down to bomb Gaza back to the stone age (they have got it pretty close to that over the years already) and will step up their land thefts in all occupied territories, but I don't see anyone intervening to help the Palestinians, save by providing a bit of weaponry and ammunition perhaps.

Its all pretty depressing, the only bright spot being that one does not much care who wins (if it even makes sense to speak of a 'win' in a conflict like that) and just hopes that BOTH sides shoot straight!

[aleman] 09/10/2023 15:44

Europe TTF Nov gas is up 15% (UK +18%) on the Israeli Energy Ministry's instruction to shut-down Tamar gas production. Contracts for next year are up around 8-10%. Whether this affects Henry Hub significantly or not remains to be seen. There's been minimal futures rises so far.

[1knocker] 09/10/2023 14:14

Big jump for Doric Nimrod (A380 leases to Emirates) today. They now pay less than DEC.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/10/2023 14:03

A penny or 2 a day recovery underway, nice to see after adding a few last week, seemingly rather well timed.. :o)

[renewed1] 09/10/2023 10:39

I think the reaction of the market to the last acquisition made it quite clear to management that the market wasnt prepared for them to take on more debt at this time.
Theyve clearly taken on board this view. Steady the ship for a year and the market will probably see acquisitions in a different light.