Distil Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 07/3/2022 18:43

Peter,

No worries, I'm not going anywhere yet, but I may do if nothing happens this year to get the MCap up to a decent level.

The ii's were told several years ago that the DIS core strategy was 'DIS builds brands in order to sell them', because 'brands are where the big money is', and they were no doubt given a list of brands that had sold for tens of millions (he rolled some off to analysts on a video that was on YouTube a few years back). DG also says he laughed at offers of £10m for RedLeg.

At this point in time, many MANY years later, we have not sold a single brand!! That is surely an epic failure, because it is the core strategy!!

If DG had accepted the £10m for RedLeg, imagine how he could have built up the business with that, and made several other new brands worth £10m or even up to £50m each with enough advertising.

So we are now left drifting along just looking at sales figures every 6 months. It's no wonder people (especially ii's) are bored.

DG needs to get back to the core strategy and sell off Redleg, Blackwoods, and anything else that buyers will pay a good price for, then we can get on with creating the next wave of products, and we can all have a special dividend to make us a bit happier after a long time waiting for a decent return.

DG should remember that investors own the company, and they invest looking for a return, they do not invest just to create a gravy train for the BoD to live off forever.

[petersinthemarket] 07/3/2022 16:47

Thanks for response Haggis - I keep thinking I'm last man in!

I have never bothered to look at the high strength stuff. Always seemed too expensive to me, but I take your point about using less (if I could be trusted).
I drink rum neat, so it's no good for me, but the high strength stuff might work well for those using it as a mixer.

The legal minimum for spirits in EU/UK is 37.5abv, if you want to call it rum, etc., on the label. I note that our main rum competitor, Captain Morgan, is only 35%, but they don't have rum printed on the front label. Their abv reduction may be part of the reason that they can afford to sell the stuff at a fixed price around £15, whereas RedLeg only does that via the Tesco discount price for cardholders. It usually hovers between £20/22 near me.

Must say, the DIS share price is truly shocking now. 1.15/1.30. The II's who bought at 2.00 must be disappointed. Surely this can't be to do with the war. (Sorry, peace keeping excersize). Persistant selling in fairly small quantities for weeks now. I reckon it's boredom. DIS messed things up with the placing for Ardgowan, even though it might come right in the future. We've a long wait (2025?) for a good single malt, although we should see a blend sometime this year.

If the share price keeps performing like this, I might well be the last man in.

[haggismchaggis] 07/3/2022 14:18

Peter,

RE post 10092,this explains why many spirits such as Rum and Gin are being sold at 35% or 37.5% alcohol. And many people don't check, just assume spirt = 40%.

An interesting video I watched recently detailed how it often works out cheaper to buy cask strength spirits, because you can use less of it to get the same level of taste. So instead of going cheaper for the 35% you are better off paying more for the 46% and putting less of it in a drink (single instead of double for example).

[petersinthemarket] 05/3/2022 13:36

The Spirits Business reports that many UK retail outlets are withdrawing all Russian vodkas from their shelves and that a number of other countries, including Canada and USA, are following suit. Some alternatives from Ukraine are becoming harder to find as their distilleries close on safety grounds and their supply chains run out of stock. As vodka is a saturated market, there are many other options on the shelves for dedicated vodka lovers and The Drinks Business has an article called: ''20 alternatives to Russian vodka brands - 28 February 2022'' listing some of them.

[petersinthemarket] 05/3/2022 12:57

Ardgowan have just announced a new board member. You can find other stuff on their website.

Ardgowan welcomes Sean Anderson to the team. If you've been following our journey for a while, you'll know that we have recently had some talented additions to help us realise our ambitious plans, and our latest team member is our new financial controller, Sean Anderson. With over 20 years' experience in fields as diverse as aviation, fashion, and IT, he has worked across the globe, most recently for six years at Heineken. Hailing from Ayrshire, not too far from our location in Inverkip, he now lives in Fife. A passionate advocate for Guide Dogs for the Blind, he is used to a house full of trainee guide dogs. Welcome aboard, Sean.

[petersinthemarket] 04/3/2022 14:52

As at March 2022, under a proposal to adjust alcohol taxes on a wide range of alcoholic beverages, the Chancellor, Rishi Sunack, has said that the rate of tax on spirits will remain the same, at £28.74 per litre of pure alcohol. The new tax table is being hard fought by producers, but is expected to be published unchanged around February 2023. UK VAT on spirits will remain at 20%. The various proposals are said to be intended to guide drinkers towards lower alcohol drinks. The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) is very upset and states: The tax on Scotch Whisky in the UK currently stands at 70%, meaning around £3 in every £4 spent on Scotch Whisky in the UK goes to the HM Treasury in excise and VAT.

I have done some rough figures as an illustration:
Assume 1 litre of spirits at 40% abv.
Pure alcohol content is 0.4 litres.
Excise duty on a 1 litre bottle of spirits = 0.4 x £28.74 = £11.50
Assume £25 is the selling price after VAT at 20%
Cost of the spirits before VAT = 100*25/120=£20.83
VAT=£25-£20.83=£4.17
Cost of the spirits before excise duty and VAT = £25 - £11.50 - £4.17 = £9.33
Total tax = Excise duty + VAT = £11.50 + £4.17=£15.67 = £15.67/£25 = 63%

The questionable accuracy of the SWA statement might depend on the selling price of your favourite booze but, whichever way you look at it, we certainly have to pay for our pleasures.

[petersinthemarket] 01/3/2022 17:10

Bid/offer spread now a rather shocking 1.3/1.5 - The 1.3p indicates mm's desperate to stem this continuous tide of selling (boredom?). However 1.5p to buy is still an attractive price for those with longer time scales in mind.

[petersinthemarket] 10/2/2022 13:17

As a result of the Ardgowan agreement last year, our DIS future will be busy.
Here's a rough guide.

Short term, during 2022:
DIS expect to launch a range of branded blended premium malt whiskies in 2022.
Ardgowan has full planning permission for the new joint site.
Site clearance and preliminary building arrangements have begun.
DIS has access to a Master Distiller now (eventually at new site).
Ardgowan can market DIS products alongside it's own, at their discretion.
DIS will use it's export distribution network to aid export marketing of Ardgowan products.
Under the loan agreement DIS will receive 5% pa interest on up to £5m, paid quarterly. DIS interest income will amount to a minimum £150k pa at the start, rising to £250k pa.
During the loan term, Argowan has pledged a minimum of 10% of it's whisky production capability to DIS.

Near future:
DIS will transfer production of Blackwoods gin, vodka, plus Trove, to new site.
(These are currently produced under licence in Birmingham and Scotland.
DIS will operate a visitor centre for it's products.
DIS will in due course own 14.28% of the new company's share capital.
DIS will produce branded new products and line extensions at new site.
DIS will develop it's own on-line product sales facility.

[gutbuster] 09/2/2022 09:45

Yes, still available online, it's just not been in store for ages. Just not ideal as there are plenty of 'weaker' brands all over the shelves.

[petersinthemarket] 08/2/2022 15:44

>>10085
I thought I had read the same thing myself, a couple of years ago, but it's showing today on the Booker online website at the Haverfordwest branch. They might as well stock it, as it all extends Tesco sales.

If you go to the Booker website, they try to make you sign in with a membership number, but you can fiddle it. If you enter your postcode to find nearest branch, click on your chosen branch and then click on Browse Branch, it will let you enter any product in the search box.

[gutbuster] 08/2/2022 11:09

Bookers haven't stocked Red Leg in store for about 3 years. I assumed it was when Tesco took over?

[daz1712] 07/2/2022 22:52

I haven’t seen any of the drinks that Distil owns in any pubs or bars? The latest trading update won’t be good news in my opinion!! Glad I got out at 3p a share!! Trove and all the Redleg variations haven’t taken off. A shame as Redleg original Rum has potential. Weak and bad management

[petersinthemarket] 06/2/2022 12:13

It would be good to see a move on our Mardi Gras trade mark this year. I also note that USA drinks body says tequila amounted to 30% of spirits revenue in USA last year. Another one for our stable at some time.

[thepopeofchillitown] 02/2/2022 11:29

So basically all of the early Jan spike that we all got excited about has been wiped off in a month.

[lr2] 31/1/2022 08:05

New Chair of Ardgowan Distillery Appointed

[haggismchaggis] 30/1/2022 16:26

With UK 'live with covid' allowing the on trade to finally get back to normal, I'm expecting a spike in sales, as bars load up stock ahead of everyone getting back to regular nights out and partying. Retail trade is bound to drop back a bit, but the on trade orders should give a quick big boost to sales before things balance out at a new level.

[petersinthemarket] 19/1/2022 11:05

Forecasts. With disparate levels of consumer and hospitality restrictions
pertaining across the UK and in key export markets, accurate forecasting
of the full-year outturn remains problematic. Distil anticipates revenue
growth in Q4, the smallest quarter by value in FY21. This should deliver
full-year double-digit percentage growth compared with the (pre-Covid)
FY20 financial year, albeit a decline on an extraordinary FY21 given the
exceptional and distorting effects arising from the Covid pandemic.


This is taken from Progressive Equity Research report.
The report can be found on the Distil Plc website.

[petersinthemarket] 19/1/2022 11:04

FYE MAR (EMI) ------2018 2019 2020 2021
Revenue ------------2.01 2.40 2.44 3.62
Adj EBITDA ---------0.16 0.17 0.25 0.27
Fully Adj PBT ------0.16 0.16 0.18 0.24
Fully Adj EPS (p)-- 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.07
EV/Sales (x) -------4.1x 3.4x 3.3x 2.3x
EV/EBITDA (x) -----49.9x 48.3x 33.2x 30.3x
PER (x) -----------58.7x 57.7x 36.0x 27.1x

[janekane] 19/1/2022 08:00

30% plus spread the mm don’t want to buy and I think any major holder trying to sell will have a big problem unloading
The realisation is the brands ain't cutting the mustard

[petersinthemarket] 17/1/2022 13:46

>...pope
I enjoy the basic RedLeg and buy (Tesco) whether discounted or not, but who the discounter may be interests me. The law says that retail price maintenance is illegal, ie a producer cannot tell a retailer what price to sell at. I have been assured by DIS that it is the retailer who decides on discounts and also takes the price hit in order to raise their own sales volume. I suppose the producer could decide to sell to the retailer at a lower price to share the pain but with a retailer like Tesco that would be a very slippery slope as they might well refuse to buy at the old higher price later. If there is anyone on here with practical experience in this area I would welcome some comment.

[biggest bill] 17/1/2022 09:19

Haggismchaggis, I think that you have been imbibing too much of the company's products.