Distil Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 20/12/2020 21:28

…. yes, well above 9% growth!!

[haggismchaggis] 19/12/2020 23:34

Interesting stats!

[clermontace] 19/12/2020 19:29

Nice spot someuwin. Without wanting to sound like a stuck record.....Tescos were well down on both variants of RedLeg today. Two left of one, one left of the pineapple. I know they've sold at least a couple of cases of each since last looking as the sole boxed example from before had gone.

It's selling well. I feel certain the figures released in January are going to look very strong.

Lambs near depletion. Deadman's Fingers also getting a few shifted.

A few gaps appearing on the 'Captains Crack' shelf.

[petersinthemarket] 18/12/2020 22:30

You been on the bottle again Daz? You seem to come and go like a yo-yo.
I was hoping for some sensible comments as it's one I've never heard of..

[janekane] 18/12/2020 21:57

Evening Daz I’ve been here for a number of years and when RedLeg started it was undoubtedly a good product
Over the last 9 years this has grown substantially with global sales
It will give a good return over the next 12 months
You will make money here

[daz1712] 18/12/2020 21:07

Give it a go Pete!! Investing in Spirit brands nobody has ever heard of seems to be the norm on this BB😂

[haggismchaggis] 18/12/2020 21:05

Monkey 47 is really good, also really expensive for a 50cl bottle. You can put it with any tonic and you'll still taste it. I now have 56 different Gin's in my collection. I did a Gin party for 30 people in February before covid hit, it went really well, although it didn't even dent my collection which was 45 at the time.

[petersinthemarket] 18/12/2020 20:46

Just to be mischievous my daughter in law has suggested I try Monkeyt 47 Schwarzwald Gin and then buy shares in it. Does anyone know anything about it?

[janekane] 18/12/2020 15:38

Simply as I can explain
I as a broker lend a college 10000 shares I own and charge him for the deal I’ve brokered
A contract that provides the borrower to give me back my shares in 1/2/3 months time depending on the deal structure
He sold these shares the same day and bought them back the day before his position with me closed
Thus giving them back to me on the agreed date and time
I’ve generated income for my company on a perfectly legal way of share trading

[janekane] 18/12/2020 15:17

Investor A thinks this or that company is not doing well and the shares will drop
So he borrows one million shares from his broker at a fixed price of 10p
He then sells them at this price hoping his strategy is right and the shares will tank
The following week the shares have dropped to 9p so if he buys them back at 9p he makes £10k before he buys them back the company announce a take over approach at 15p he has to close his position so loses 1000000 @ 6p so instead of making money from his short position he’s lost £60k
Short selling is a vital part of the way all stock markets work and the only way it can work is with buyers ,sellers ,LENDERS and borrowers
Lots of people make money shorting in the same context lots of people lose
The market will never stop shorting
If you enter “this weeks put call options “into a good investment site you will see that most options are opend by our pension providers

[haggismchaggis] 18/12/2020 14:17

The FCA are taking the p1ss!! They ban buying cryptoassets but have failed to ban shorting for decades. I know which of the two is worse for private investors, for everyone's pensions, and for the health of British smaller companies, yet these blinkered morons can't see it!!!

[petersinthemarket] 18/12/2020 12:59

O/T actually, but as its quiet, and this might affect some people:
FCA to ban purchase of cryptoassets. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has announced that from 6 January 2021, only professional investors will be able to purchase cryptoassets. This means that from 16:00 on 5 January 2021, you will no longer be able to purchase cryptoassets. Cryptoassets can be subject to extreme volatility and high risk, the FCA is therefore introducing a UK-wide ban on their purchase by private investors. This ban will apply to all customers although if you already hold cryptoassets, you will not be required to sell them and can continue to hold them as part of your portfolio.

[berny3] 18/12/2020 11:18

Daz, Good points. When Redleg Rum was first listed it was launched in Brighton. Exactly as you said amongst the independent ontrade outlets and festivals. That was the launch of the Rum shack which then travelled around on trade venues. It was done exceptionally well on a massively low budget. Nothing short of amazing. To have grown the Redleg Rum brand from these beginning to what it is now is fabulous and to have done it without incurring debt is also extremely well done.

Watching that unfold from the launch of Redleg Rum is what showed me the skills that are inherent within the current team and why I support and trust the strategy that they are doing.

Always things can be improved upon but it is my feeling things are going well and as investors/shareholders we are in a good position.

Good constructive discussion.

[petersinthemarket] 18/12/2020 10:50

You make some well argued points Daz - who ever said marketing a new product was easy?
I believe we have a very capable mktg team working on a low budget. If you read my last note above you could imagine what a bigger company alliance could do for us.

[petersinthemarket] 18/12/2020 10:45

By coincidence this morning on The Spirits Business, there is a report that Moet Hennessy are to take an interest in a small, more or less unknown, whiskey company called Whistlepig, with a view to expanding their own range in that area. Moet will use their massive distribution capability to push the whiskey into much greater sales volume.

Perhaps this is the sort of arrangement we might see fostered in the future. All the majors must be starting to find the competition with RedLeg getting tougher.

[daz1712] 18/12/2020 10:36

Appreciate Berny,your points of view,however the pineapple variant of Redleg had been launched for over a year now, as they launched after last summer. Plenty of time to get the brand out to consumers and the amount spent on marketing and promotional activity going where exactly, because most retailers don’t stock any of the products at all.
How many people if asked have heard of Redleg rum, Blackwood Gin, Blavod? Not many in a survey of 100 people I would say!
If I want to buy a bottle of any product Dis markets I have to either travel to a main supermarket or search the product and order online,there are 4 smaller retailers before I reach a supermarket that sell spirits, that don’t stock any products.
Getting your products out to these smaller retailers is old fashioned get off your backside marketing, as well as social, google and promotional slots.

[petersinthemarket] 18/12/2020 10:22

Berny3, I found that explanation of the retail business very interesting. Thanks.

[berny3] 18/12/2020 09:34

JK looking at MM bids today very uncertain
CFEP 1.40-1.90
PEEL 1.40-1.70
WINS 1.50-1.80
JBER 1.60 -2.10
SCAP 1.50-1.80

on the ask- 1@1.7; 2@1.8;1@1.9; 1@2.1

That would suggest to me not much stock available (possible buyer in the background or just uncertainty)

on the bid 1@1.60; 2@1.5; 2@1.4

That would suggest a stronger Bid than ask.

on the weight of probabilities I would call that positive and the potential of an upside spike more likely than a downward. However, quite marginal and very difficult to read.

[berny3] 18/12/2020 09:25

Daz, Supermarkets usually have two phases of new listings; Q1 and Q3. Pineapple Rum was listed by Tesco Q1. we will have to hold judgement to see which supermarkets take up a listing of Pineapple Rum next year.

Banana Rum was only listed a couple of months ago. Any supermarket would only look at listing the Banana Rum at the earliest Q1 2021, for launch Q2 2021.

Using Amazon as the first line to market is a very good strategy. This is cheap and Amazon only carry one weeks stock so there is not a large upfront costs in supply them. If the product is successful and the sales data is good it will be recoded by the independent place for commercial sales data which is Neilsen data. This is the source for most of the industry to review sales levels of products of their own products and those of their competitors. Similar buyers at Supermarkets review this data too.

Daz the strategy that you are believing should be done is wrong for this industry. Many inexperienced new brands believe they need big marketing spend and the need to stock the shelves. (RA did this and so Did Mark Dorman, both failed) It is a highly competitive market and going that route is a huge risk as it requires a large upfront cost, decline in cashflow, increased cost of capital and a higher proportion of bad debts.

If you do analysis on the industry you will see most small brands are shouldered with huge debt and small margins, because they have followed that strategy. This company has not and is being very successful in managing its finances and promoting a strong brand. You focus on the fact that the other brands within the firm are not keeping up with market share. If you research the Gin market you will now see that most supermarkets are stocking Gin like wine now. There is no customer loyalty to a brand anymore. If you do your research on product market developments you will see they follow a curve with these variables. The Gin market has peaked and is on a downward trend concerning the market, loyalty, pricing etc. Rum on the other hand is on the upward trend. Therefore at a strategy level it makes efficient sense to focus your resources on the product which is in the upward trend.

If there is a buyout of the firm at some point then the Gin brand still exists and a firm with a larger more established distribution channel could leverage that and very quickly get the sales volumes of Blackwoods Gin higher.

This is just my layman view based on the analysis I have done over the years. I remain very positive about the company.