Distil Share Discussion Threads

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 08:31

We're now very close to the H3 trading update and I expect those figures to look good. Strong possibility of other news too...perhaps NPD and if Roland Grain's intention is to bring value to the group in some way I don't expect a long wait to hear about it.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 08:28

It seems the larger buys on Friday have shifted all the offers back above mid, so ADVFN's reporting will now fall back into line. I'm expecting some uplift this week.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 08:05

Thanks for the clarification Berny.

[berny3] 07/12/2020 07:08

CA a master distiller is a qualification. I think it is an employee who is now managing that side of the business. The business has this last 12 months recruited on the marketing side, promoted within up to the board and recruited a master distiller. It is shoring the business up for expansion, in my opinion

[petersinthemarket] 06/12/2020 22:43

To vote down you have to be a Bluey. You can look way back on here and many of the regulars, whether black or blue, have been voted down at some time. It must be a disgruntled lurker.

[clermontace] 06/12/2020 20:12

Berny (or anyone)....do you know who the distiller is?

DG said in the interims:

"To assist with our new product development ambitions, we have agreed an ongoing partnership with a Master Distiller, in order to accelerate liquid development."

[clermontace] 06/12/2020 19:23

I'm aware of that.

[lr2] 06/12/2020 16:11

Rufiji River Tequila - sounds exotic.

[clermontace] 06/12/2020 16:02

Met a woman from Tanzania recently. We talked in her native language for hours

Guess you can say we really clicked!

[clermontace] 06/12/2020 15:58

Click Tequila.

[haggismchaggis] 06/12/2020 15:47

Tanzquila seems the obvious one.

[clermontace] 06/12/2020 15:01

Daz1712 - I hope you're making a full and complete recovery from Covid. Enjoy your Redleg!

[clermontace] 06/12/2020 14:59

Hello EK. Interesting to see you here and quite a coincidence in that it was only yesterday that I was thinking of emailing to you discuss developments at DIS. We had contact in the very (very) distant past regarding a different company (which I did extremely well out of).

I hope you're fine and have faired well this year?

[live ink] 06/12/2020 14:04

Slightly off topic what name would contributors to this thread offer for a new brand of tequila distilled in Tanzania?

EK

[haggismchaggis] 06/12/2020 13:26

DIS promoting Blackwood's for XMas "Now just £16 at @morrisons for a limited time"

[petersinthemarket] 06/12/2020 10:01

#9136 - I have emailed DG on two separate occasions in recent weeks and included a request for a short public statement on his view of the current situation.

I have received no response of any sort.

Perhaps if other individuals demonstrated a broader general need by making similar polite and reasoned requests he might feel it necessary to react in due course.

However, I feel that events are, for now at least, largely out of his hands, and I can therefore understand completely if his judgement is to stand aloof in order to keep his powder dry.
pete

[daz1712] 05/12/2020 22:23

Got my bottle of Banana Rum from Amazon, 2 days delivery(yesterday so as promised)bottle looks good with existing Redleg and the pineapple together.Had Covid at the end of October so not going to review the taste and smell etc yet, but bottle is definitely a plus point

[haggismchaggis] 05/12/2020 12:41

It has been said many times over the years that DIS should get an external consultancy to value the brands, because that is the true core value of this company, that is what it's NAV should be based on, and that is what any takeover offer should be based on..I think RG will have done his own valuation of the brands, which is why he is willing to buy up huge chunks of the stock, he sees them as a bargain compared to to the value of the brands..We know DG laughed at £10m for RedLeg a few years ago. It is clearly worth a lot more today, and there is the award winning Blackwood's, Blavod, etc, yet the whole if DIS is currently valued at less than £10m. So RG would be correct to think the stock is a bargain at this price.

[clermontace] 05/12/2020 10:37

Given the speculation this significant stake has created there might well be an argument here for the DIS management to make a statement to the market....especially if Grain himself has been communicative about his interest in the business - whatever than might be.

It might well be that a lucrative mutually agreeable deal is in the pipeline.....likewise, if he is coming on board as a significant shareholder because like us he sees the growth potential, this communication/knowledge could be telegraphed to the market. Would not do any harm.

[clermontace] 05/12/2020 10:25

Hi Daz1712....I see £20M as very conservative!

Any sniff of a buy out with competition and this will spike towards a double figure share price

Probably would not stay there granted.....but it is potentially the perfect storm the likes of which the market can become extremely excited about.

If the management have long-serving shareholders interests at heart they would reject an offer £20M or anything close to it.

How many years ago did Don Goulding say he would laugh at an offer of £10M for the rum alone? Since then it has done nothing but grow and added a significant suite of flavour variations, plus a collaboration with Franklin.

You would like to see some other buyers come in and start taking up some decent chunks of stock here. That might well happen.

[clermontace] 05/12/2020 10:14

Permutations:

1) Roland Grain's interest is, for the immediate period 'passive': he sees a stable company, that is making cash, growing its profit and has a brand gaining traction in the market. Like many of us he sees the potential for organic growth and a buyout. He is in effect, one of us.

2) The same as the above, yet he also identifies ways in which he himself can add immediate and significant value to the business (for example through enhanced distribution) and so he has acquired 20% of a company that immediately grows its turnover and profit. (You would naturally buy in first, as he has, before adding this said value and reach).

3) The same as number 1 & 2, yet he ALSO sees a further opportunity to grow the value of what he already owns, beyond DIS, by combining certain interests and synergies, in the same sector, but through the benefits of a publicly listed company. (This is likely in my view, and I don't see this as negative as there would almost certainly be a pay off for DIS in its existing form).

4) His interests are potentially hostile to existing holders in that he seeks to acquire the whole of DIS at the cheapest possible price. If he wants to do this he would have to buy out enough of the remaining share capital in order to gain a controlling interest and who knows what his price limit for that would be. If he wants to do this through the open market there would be no choice other than a significant hike in price. If he wants to do this outside of the market he needs to find 1) willing sellers who hold worthwhile chunks of stock who,2) do not understand the full potential value of what they're holding.

5) Any attempts to buy the business, through any route, SHOULD force the hand of any other predator watching the company - especially the Rum element.....and so if a bidding war was ever going to happen at DIS, you would imagine that it would happen soon. That's IF buying the whole company is his intention.


The point here is that pretty much any one of the above permutations points to strong upside for the share price There is potential convergence of multiple price drivers.....more often seen singularly.

And all of this, when the share price is currently sitting on a potential breakout too.

Either he has bought 20% of the business because he thinks that will become much more valuable, or, he has started on a journey in trying to buy it outright.

Either will drive the price higher in my view.

[daz1712] 05/12/2020 08:56

Morning Jk, that’s the rule I understand 30% and then must bid for the company at the highest price over the last 12 months. If this is his intention which I believe it is, the price will have to rise.
If the rum supply has been able to keep up with demand over the lockdown and Tier3 coming into Christmas, the update on revenue will be massive, pushing the price also. I would guess if RG wants the whole company this is going to cost 20-25 million less 20-21% he already owns.
Speculation rightly so will drive up the price, buying now to sell at the offer price.