Distil Share Discussion Threads

[clermontace] 12/12/2020 14:42

I'm going to sneak a word with the drinks dept in Tescos when I'm next in to ask which Rum is hot and selling well.

They're legally not allowed to show you any sales figs......but they are allowed to tell you what's selling well and what isn't.

I'm not going to mention RedLeg in my question.....it will be interesting to see if they offer that up of their own volition.

[clermontace] 12/12/2020 14:40

Yes, that's correct peter. Premium shelf....definitely gets the most 'traffic'.

[petersinthemarket] 12/12/2020 14:28

>>#9209 - I forgot to mention on my Tesco/RedLeg note earlier. The 5 lines of RedLeg were displayed at roughly face height (for most people), which I took to be significant. I assume, as far as Tesco costing is concerned, that is the premium shelf, the prime position reserved for the best sales, with the much-higher and much-lower shelves taking all the other also-rans.

[someuwin] 12/12/2020 13:23

Berny - Tesco Metro (High street).

[berny3] 12/12/2020 08:51

SUW which size of Tesco’s?

[someuwin] 11/12/2020 21:16

Tesco today.

Anyone browsing the spirits aisle couldn't help but notice the Red Leg products. Great for increasing brand awareness.

[janekane] 11/12/2020 15:58

Thanks Berny

[clermontace] 11/12/2020 15:39

Someone is coming in for chunks of stock.

Another 540K just purchased.

Looking for a break above 2p here ahead of the Q3 trading update in January.

Roland Grain is successful. In buying 20% of DIS at around these levels......would make you think he sees some significant upside.

Good luck.

[clermontace] 11/12/2020 10:42

'Just Drinks' state DGE are planning a marketing push for the generally 'unappealing' (my word) Captain Morgans.



It's amazing how much cash you need to throw at a drink that....well.... isn't really that good.

It's certainly not 'premium'.

[clermontace] 11/12/2020 10:29

Thanks Berny.

[berny3] 11/12/2020 08:11

JK

Sept 2020 figures
Actual Revenue £1.878mln
Actual Profit £154K

Profit per £1 of revenue = 154/1878=.082 For every £1 of revenue creates 8p profit

Check: 8p * £1,878,000 = £154K

Hope that helps

[berny3] 11/12/2020 08:02

CA - circa market cap £25mln or 4p a shares is achievable. My feeling is an acceptable offer would be circa 5p. However, I think RG is buying his time. We have had no notification that discussions between RG and the company are happening. Anything that was market/price sensitive would have to be notified to the market.

We have had various visual reports from people of product moving quickly through the stores. Chatting with store staff at my local Waitrose, between two stores they were holding 6 cases and as far as I could see had two orders coming in a week.

Basic figures revenue circa £3.6mln at £6 revenue per bottle - 600,000 bottles. 100,000 6 bottle cases

Apply some logic to the listings 4,000 supermarket listings; Tesco 500 stores*2 listings - 1,000 + Sainsbury 500 stores =1,500; Asda 400 stores = 1,900, Morrisons 400 stores* 2 listings = 2,700; COOP; 100 stores = 2,800;Waitrose 350 stores = 3,150.

Ignore all other markets (exports, Amazon, online etc)

1 case per week per supermarket listing = 3,150*52 = 163,800 6 bottle cases per year

163,800 * 6 bottles * £6 = £5.89mln revenue.

There is a lot you can do to play with the figures.

[janekane] 11/12/2020 07:56

Claremont are these figures correct @ 8p in the pound profit

1. No change in 2nd half revenue growth from last year
£3,685,000 revenue Net profit £278,807 current pe 23
2. Same growth rate in sales over H1 translated tonH2
£5,563,340 revenue Net profit £445,460 current pe 14

[clermontace] 10/12/2020 21:01

If the figures are good in January and it's upbeat I think we could see 4p at around that time.

If there are any positive developments with regards Roland Grain (perhaps synergies, strategy, collaboration etc) then who knows....

[clermontace] 10/12/2020 20:59

Courtesy of Berny. My thanks:


Berny3 - 17 Oct 2020 - 07:14:12 - 8813 of 9115 Distil PLC - Here's to a spirited future! - DIS

DC - assuming no change in net profit margin at 8%. That means for every £1 in revenue equates to 8p on the bottom line.

2 scenarios
1. No change in 2nd half revenue growth from last year
£3,685,000 revenue Net profit £278,807 current pe 23
2. Same growth rate in sales over H1 translated tonH2
£5,563,340 revenue Net profit £445,460 current pe 14

My thoughts somewhere in between. I think margins will improve in H2 due to costs being lower as there has been investment H1 which will take until H2 to translate to revenue.

I think sales will increase yoy H2

On first case we should be trading at 9-10mln market cap
On second case we should be trading slightly better 20-25mln market cap

Any buyout premium would be a multiple of those numbers.

Either way trading at 6.5mln market cap is an opportunity to fill your boots. Good luck all and a good week ahead.

[clermontace] 10/12/2020 20:58

Courtesy of Berny:


Berny3 - 02 Sep 2020 - 08:54:49 - 8571 of 9116 Distil PLC - Here's to a spirited future! - DIS
JK,

3p would give a market cap of circa £15mln

profit for the year was £258K

market update was a 75-85% growth in HY Revenue

HY 2019 - £824K exp 2020 = £1,483

2nd part of the year is the strongest:
2H& 2019 £1,617K assuming 25% growth £2,021K

Total Revenue: £ 3.5mln
Gross margin: 59% = £2.07mln
30% increase in admin expense: =£1262*1.3 = 1.640

profit = £430K = 166% growth on previous year

market cap of £15mln would be on a p/e ratio of 34

Is not a difficult calculation to make and is not in my opinion an idiotic prediction. It is very achievable.
Berny3 - 03 Dec 2020 - 09:56:49 - 9115 of 9214 Distil PLC - Here's to a spirited future! - DIS
CA post 8813

[clermontace] 10/12/2020 20:56

Some nice number crunching from Berny a few weeks back.

I really hope he doesn't mind me reposting:

Berny3 - 22 Oct 2020 - 10:28:38 - 8841 of 9213 Distil PLC - Here's to a spirited future! - DIS
Pete, referencing my previous post

Doing a few more observations. Look at the trading strength of the business.

Trade receivables compared to last year

2020 £1,157,00
2019 £379,000
That is being funded through reduction in cash £266,000 and increase in payables £233,000.

This shows the profitability in the business. £499,000 allocation of cash is funding £778,000 of revenue.

Taking payables away from inventories, receivables and cash gives

2020 £1,776,000
2019 £1,465,000

If you remove cash and just look at inventories, receivable less payables

2020 £1,206,000
2019 £ 629,000

What this shows is the opportunity for cash to be used in the business to generate growth. We are seeing almost a doubling from last year.

Cash balances were £570,000 at end of period showing excess cash available illustrating the company is not cash starved to fund this growth rate.

Lots of great stuff in these figures, and shows the company is thriving in a difficult market, will be taking market share and building brand awareness and longevity.

A very strong and positive future in my opinion.

[clermontace] 10/12/2020 18:24

A good time of year to recruit new RedLeg drinkers...it's certainly now impossible to miss it in the Rum section. Slowly but surely we're 'netting' Captain Morgans drinkers (who, let's face it, must be pretty bored with that) and Sailor Jerry drinkers......we're physically positioned slap bang between the two on the shelves....

Plenty of drinker's reviews online stating that they've dropped some of these 'blue chip' brands after giving RedLeg a try (many thousands on Amazon alone).

At the end of the day RedLeg tastes great and imo actually looks more premium on the shelves when compared to those others.

And when you see it on offer, it's a no-brainer.

FY revenue predictions anyone?

[thepopeofchillitown] 10/12/2020 18:16

My local Sainsbury's also selling for 15 although only 2 bottles left.