Distil Share Discussion Threads

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 12:16

Thanks. I had wondered if there was anything still 'active' re BHC given the tie up earlier this year.

I would like to ask DG if that actually ended up costing us anything.

[petersinthemarket] 07/12/2020 12:15

#9155 - ''CA a master distiller is a qualification. I think it is an employee who is now managing that side of the business.............''

Berny is quite right, anyone with an interest and access to distillery experience can pay for a course and get a Master's Certificate.

It is possible that a DIS employee has been appointed, but DIS has no distillery and would need a cooperation with another company.

Our main recent links have been with the Langley distillery in Birmingham, but we might also consider BHC and ELLC and I suppose Appleton Estate.

I have been unable to find anything on the DIS Master Distiller appointment, so it's anyone's guess, but I would personally stick with Langley for now due to all our recent cooperation. Whether the man is our employee or theirs doesn't matter much.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:53

What's Blavod worth? 20 years of cumulative case sales must be considerable.

What's Blackwoods Gin worth? A good brand.

Blackwoods Vodka?

Diva? Limited in my view and underdeveloped.

Jagos? I've always liked that brand..I think I could make that happen. There is a good back story there, although a shame Tom is no longer around. Indeed I would criticise DG for revamping the packaging on that only to stall on pushing the brand. Focussing on the rum was the right thing to do.....so why bother repackaging Jagos?

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:48

Thank you peter. Interesting. Distribution was my in fact my first (and still perhaps my best) guess.

As for the asset stripping angle - crossed my mind - but infinitely harder to do with intangibles? If you know anything about asset stripping.....you will know the name 'Clermont' goes hand in glove. Or did. Back in the day.

[petersinthemarket] 07/12/2020 11:40

#9176 - He does not have form in this respect, as far as I am aware, but I believe that DIS is his first interest in a public company, so it's difficult to be sure of his plan.

I tracked his eastern European exploits with quite some effort last year and it was very complex indeed. He seems to make offers to the present owners of small private companies and then splits or holds the bits he wants. Not exactly asset stripping like Hanson, but more a restructuring to his own tastes. He doesn't always own outright, he likes to leave the original owner to run things. Basically he was looking for geographic scale. He has a presence in about a dozen countries. Each individual office is relatively small, less than half a dozen people, but all cooperate with each others leads. Overall control is from Austria.

49% of all ownership and benefits goes back to his family trust in Austria.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:37

I think there is a strong change the share price will break to 4p on the Q3 trading update, due in early January.

By then we may also have more details regarding Roland Grain's interest in the business.

One thing is for sure, if you want any potential upside to a bid, you're going to have to be in before it happens.

I don't know if a bid is coming, but the Redleg brand is looking stronger than ever and someone has just picked up 20% of the business.

I would hazard a guess that they are, in some way, hoping to make a profit on that. The question is, will existing holders benefit. I think there's a fair chance they will.

Good luck and ADYOR.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:32

Redleg buyout at say £40M would equate to very roughly 8p a share:





free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:26

Peter, that is one permutation. But of those other private companies, do you know which of them were once listed? Does he have form on that front. I think it's perhaps more likely he wants some exposure to the market and access to capital. It might be the Rum is sold and fresh brands are brought in.

Manly Spirits?

I would have no problem with that. I like that outfit very much.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:22

EK - if you're reading this, and if you think there is a sniff of a buy out on the Rum, it would be good to get your thoughts. It's a good drink. The best DIS has had.

[petersinthemarket] 07/12/2020 11:22

As for RG, I am still very unsure whether I like his involvement or not.

It may be all very interesting and I'm grateful to him for forcing our price up, but actually I hope he is only aiming for a large share and not full control.

RG owns or has a large share of many companies. Although not discussed here he has a large stake in personnel companies all across eastern Europe. He generally has no interest in public companies. All his companies are private.

If his plan was to take DIS private, it would be us who would get mugged.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:21

haggis - we know what price the stock went through the market at.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:20

Bprofit.....does not sound far fetched in the slightest.

I attributed £40M (or around 8p a share) as a starting figure for Redleg (alone). Could be significantly more. £40M is absolute peanuts to the major drinks companies.

It's a good brand that has proven itself. It has been the fastest growing rum brand on the market for several years now. People like it. It looks good. It tastes good. As I posted the other week, the likes of Captain Morgan look plain DULL and TIRED next to it on the shelves.

Now in three flavour variations and also in collaboration with Franklin in the RTD range.

It's worth over £40M.

[haggismchaggis] 07/12/2020 11:16

You're all missing a VERY BIG point!!.You don't know what price RG paid for HR's stock, it could have been 2x, 3x, 4x!!.As you say, HR is no fool and doesn't need the money, so the price offered must have been too good to refuse!!

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 11:15

Not sure Peter. Maybe a Tequila? Maybe that's the answer EK for looking for yesterday?!

[bprofit] 07/12/2020 11:13

If RG goes out to market and attracts some offers for the Redleg brand, cash offers, say 40-50m... maybe much more if they get interest from multiple parties.. they can then sell the brand and keep the business. Re-invest in building lots of new brands, then repeat the model again in a few years... Of course if the bidding war gets fierce then someone may come for the company and RG would not let his shares go for cheap. I think if they get the right parties interested then a much higher valuation is possible and I don't rule out a share price in excess of 10x times today's price...that may sounds far fetched but there are many examples of similar drinks brands achieving very high valuations...

[petersinthemarket] 07/12/2020 11:10

Whilst we wait for news - anyone got any thoughts on usa and mardi gras. Mardi Gras is usually around February in usa and Europe. If we are going to get in, we should be shipping now.

Maybe being held back due to other commotions this year, but at sometime we will see the results of buying and filing the Mardi Gras trademarks in usa and europe.

There is little doubt that usa is a very difficult market due to multiple different alcohol laws in each state and high tariffs, but it can't be ignored for ever.

Personally, I would far rather see DIS concentrate on expanding volumes in uk and Europe. There are other ex-Empire possibilities too for bulk shipping and bottling nearer to the market.

But what is mardi gras going to be? DG didn't buy in without a reason. I wonder if Tequila might be a target, but whatever it turns out to be it will have to have a slightly wider context then Mexico, especially for the yanks.

We know DIS have taken on a distiller to work on something. Any ideas anyone?

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 10:55

I agree £660K is a not a large amount of money to someone in HR's position.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 10:54

peter....I am strongly inclined to think imminent upside for existing holders.

Something is afoot here.

Developments.

We'll see.

[petersinthemarket] 07/12/2020 10:50

#9162 - ''And FWIW personally I think Howard Raymond was mugged.''

On first sight i was inclined to agree, but then again, HR has a big business of his own and is no fool. There must be more to it than we have seen so far.
Fascinating.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 10:20

And all when the company is looking at its best shape to date.....and about to 'ping' its Rum turnover.

In terms of brand building and traction....the Rum is on a breakout....or will be very soon.

[petersinthemarket] 07/12/2020 10:00

Does anyone enjoy building a conspiracy theory?

Prior to the sale Howard Raymond owned 10.9% of Distil Plc (54,716,137).
He sold 43,000,000 at a trade value of £666.500.

He still owns 2.33% (11,716,137).
He is therefore no longer a major shareholder.
He no longer needs to report his holding unless he rises above 3% again

HR is in the trade so he knows exactly what DIS shares should be worth.
HR is a very old friend of DG.

Why would HR conspire with RG, and at such a low selling price?
He doesn't need the money - he is amazingly wealthy.

There must be a plan.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 09:37

And FWIW personally I think Howard Raymond was mugged.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 09:36

If the boss said he'd laugh at £10M what 2 or 4 years ago, how does HE value the Rum.

I'd be very interested to know how he presently values it.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 09:33

Berny - read all that has been released and scour the net a bit further and as you say it's clear expansion is on the cards.

DG has managed the company prudently up until now and has built a solid base. It's a healthy company, debt free, returning cash, growing profit and with sound margins.

I was trying to work out a realistic buyout price for the Rum over the weekend.

I believe it will get taken out but the question is, will it be allowed to flourish under good gearing before such predatory interest. It is now returning enough cash for exponential growth to really kick in and for the brand to race up and become self-fulfilling.

I can see T/O at £3.5M in March and with net profit at an all time high.

£40M (or 8p) for the Rum would be back of the sofa money for some of the majors.

[clermontace] 07/12/2020 08:32

I very much doubt he has taken 20% of the business at these prices only to let it stagnate. More than likely there is a plan in the making to bring some near term uplift imo. We'll see.