Concepta Share Discussion Threads

[rbcrbc] 17/3/2012 11:46

Thanks Papy, that confirms my belief that this is an excellant investment.

It would be interesting to know if there are any hidden tax loses so that the remnants of the company, after the final distribution, could be sold rather than liquidated.

p.s. I dont think anyone here has more than 6.9m shares as only institutions have declared a holding above 3%. (I hold 2.5m)

[grahamg8] 17/3/2012 10:44

Well done Papy for trying to find out what the figures actually mean. I'm still hopeful for an eventual ~5c return from final payout and then liquidation. All to come during 2012. Even if we don't get an RNS on/after 20 March the next milestone should be a general update soon after (May last year) or failing that the full year results during June or perhaps earlier. The problem with the results is that they will only cover to 31 December so the price sensitive information will be given as post year end notes. Which may be as difficult to understand as ever. And so we would then be back to square one again.

[papy02] 16/3/2012 21:38

The completion date for the Galleria, Riga sale is next Tues 20th March.

Hopefully they will RNS whether it completes or not (?).

I got a reply today from Redleaf Communications re the 6m liabilities reduction – they checked w the company and came back to confirm that the impact of the Galleria transaction, if it completes, on NAV is the net equity proceeds of EUR 2.3m PLUS the decrease of net liabilities of EUR6 million. I.e. as the RNS says, but that is clearly not believed by the market, (or maybe the market doesn't believe the sale will complete?).

I'm not putting *too* much weight on this input, as previously Redleaf had said the 2.3m was included in the 6m (!). I queried that, quoting the RNS, then they came back confirming my understanding of the RNS as above. Maybe if I queried that I'd get yet another answer, but I like this answer!

Separately a previous reply from them stated that the Nov/Dec property sales were included in the EUR 9.86m performance fee paid in Jan. I haven't queried this but it makes no sense to me. The EUR 9.86m tallies with the payouts to date incl the recent 25c and 12c. In the results to June 30 2011 they had accrued EUR 9.451m for Perf Fee for sales made up to June 30. The 9.86m paid in Jan is just 409k more, which at 25% Perf Fee maps to distributable capital of EUR 1.64m. That is much less than the MacroMall, Satu Mare and Babilonas figures, published in the Nov/Dec RNS's, for the net equity realised by these sales.

The current share price, even after this week's rise, seems way too low if Galleria completes - I would now hope for 5c to 6c/ share return in that case.

We shouldn't lose from here even if Galleria doesn't complete.

I'd welcome views, including contrary ones (though a bit late for those as I now have 1.4m shares – a lot for me - though I know small change for some on this board ;-).

[papy02] 08/3/2012 14:41

D'oh. Yes, obvious now you say it! Thanks

[rbcrbc] 08/3/2012 13:28

Based on my trades the prices shown on ADVFN against the trade are in Euro Cents and my broker (HL) shows GBP on my contract note.

[papy02] 08/3/2012 11:16

I just bought the 160,313 showing in Trades. But rather than the 1.66p price showing there the trade actually went through at just under 1.4p (using Selftrade, trading at best). Don't know if/ how much more available at this price, but posting just in case of interest to anyone else.

[grahamg8] 02/3/2012 15:28

So why did it all kick off this afternoon? CPT top of the leader board at 3.15pm. Price quoted for 10,000 shares this morning was 1.659p buy and 1.09p sell; and for 100,000 shares 1.8944p buy and 1.09p sell. Suggests there is a shortage of stock which would of course explain the sharp rise on modest volume. Also the spread is so wide that we should really only be buying these to hold until liquidated. This means IMO that dealing is likely to dry up even more as there are fewer and fewer shares being offered, and so the price could go up even more. Clearly at some point we get to a price when even long term bulls and holders are going to think about selling. But we do seem to have the potential for significant upside even after today's rise.

I have a note from the time of the last distribution suggesting we still had quite a lot of spare cash then and it has just increased (or will do on 20 March). So final distribution in May, FY results late May, and then delist and liquidate probably in Q3.

[rbcrbc] 01/3/2012 16:19

The potential sale would result in a decrease of net liabilities of the Group of approximately EUR6 million in addition to the net equity proceeds realised

That certainly reads to me like NAV increase of 6mEUR which is 2.6c per share on top of the 2.3mEUR / 1c per share. So are we realy looking like a return of 2c + 2.6c + 1c in the next payment ???

Where have all the accountants gone ?

[grahamg8] 01/3/2012 15:55

Agree Eagle. My first thought was that we were due 6m Euros or ~2.59cps extra; but then on a second reading it looked like the lower figure of 2.3m less costs so around 0.99cps less costs. Either way the closing value seems to be heading in the correct direction. And the share price has responded accordingly. A good thing I managed to top up gradually over the past few weeks.

[horndean eagle] 01/3/2012 15:07

Not really sure how the other 6m figure fits in. If that boosts NAV by that amount we could see another 2c or so being returned or about 4.5c in total. Will need some clarification on that though.

[horndean eagle] 01/3/2012 14:50

The investment in Riga was in the books at zero. Adds another 1c or so to NAV and the cash pile less costs. May need to upgrade estimates of what might still be returned.

[rbcrbc] 13/2/2012 16:32

My understanding is that there will be one more payment before liquidation then a final (?tiny) payment by the liquidator once liquidation is complete.

[praipus] 13/2/2012 16:14

Thanks Papy02 and everyone else for the forensic value analysis and agree with your comment on the number of "moving parts".

Did any of you see this on posted by Yeildsearch? Seems to validate our approach to the markets.

Yieldsearch - 13 Feb'12 - 09:10 - 633 of 637

[papy02] 13/2/2012 15:52

grahamg8, many thanks for your estimate. Hope you're right! I can live with being under-hedged on currency in that case ;-)

Good point re performance fee. If it hasn't been extended/replaced that will significantly increase the payout to shareholders (though will have incented CAM to put everything possible into the payouts made so far).

I certainly intend to hold till liquidated (not sure if there will be another interim payout - the costs of these exercises must now be more significant relative to the amount being distributed?)

[grahamg8] 13/2/2012 09:36

I agree Papy there are loads of adjustments to make, and our base data is beginning to get very old. My start point was 30/06/11 NAV 16.63cps. All adjustments in Euro millions: -2.3 operating expenses, +2.345 rental income (MID), +1.5 VAT refund, zero Blue Knight deposit (but could be -0.6), -0.6 net income withheld, -1.5 Baia Mare deposit (assumes 50% of book value), +1.7 DDG settlement, -0.5 Babilonas sale. Overall +0.645 or 0.28pps at mid December when I did the calculation. Then 16.63-12.0 distribution +0.28 as above leaves 4.91cps.

Well you have to be optimistic after all. I'm not totally convinced that there will be a performance fee because that agreement expired at the end of 2011, but it could have been replaced by another deal. And of course we don't really have much idea of the current costs/income and winding up expenses. But my view is that it is still worth hanging in for a few more months.

[papy02] 12/2/2012 22:10

Just had a stab at the expected shareholder returns, starting with the Performance fee already accrued for in June 11 results (which was based on sales made prior to June 31). I get 2.4c /share.

I'd back-calculated that accrued-for Perf Fee corresponded to 36.45c/share to be distributed to shareholders post Jun 31, vs the 37c that has subsequently been distributed.

I then just looked at Sales post June 31 11 and other NAV changes (in Eur m) post that date. I've used other's estimates for Expenses and Liquidation costs as per posts earlier in thread.

MacroMall 1 equity released
Satu Mare 1.1 equity released
Babilonas 5 equity released
DDG settlement 1.7
Baia Mare 1.2 estimate (so 1.8m less than the 3m book)
Expenses -1 estimate before Perf Fee
Liquidatn costs -1 estimate


Total 8.0

Perf fee at 25% -2.0
Perf fee on 37c -0.4 as had only accrued for 36.45 distr in Jun 31 accounts

Net to shareholders Eur m 5.6

Shares in issue m 232.15
Net return/share Eur c 2.4


I think the main difference with calculations further up the thread is that the Performance fee takes 25% of any additional gross value to be returned to shareholders now. Not clear whether others had allowed for that - so I just added it to the 1m Expenses estimate).

I asssumed the 37c/share distributions so far since June 31 were fully met from the June 31 balance sheet so I have not deducted the excess over the 36.45c accrued-for sales value, from the property sales since then (maybe wrongly?).

I have not accounted for potential upside from tax loss adjustments, VAT refund Aug 2011, or downside from net income held not recovered (or anything else not listed above).


Any comments welcome.

[papy02] 12/2/2012 14:21

Many thanks RBC ! For some reason I had never looked at the the Trades tab on ADVFN.

[rbcrbc] 12/2/2012 11:50

The 'trades' tab at the top of the page actually gives more accurate pricing than my broker ! (H-L show me the GBP price on my contract note).

I dont really expect an update until the results are published (unless one of the remaining core assets are sold) - 11th May last year, 7th May in 2010. Although the results should be simpler this year and therefore maybe a little earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if at that time we got the notice of the penultimate payment and a date for liquidation, so I dont expect any significant more news to help make decisions.

There doesnt seem to be much stock around in terms of volume but the MM's do seem to find some given a day or two. I am still buying small quantities below 2c but will hide below the 3% threshold.

[papy02] 11/2/2012 15:42

Praipus, overall I'm up a couple of £00 up at present on the currency-hedge(I've still got maybe 40% of the original position open, as I reloaded my CPT position again, to that extent, at 1c).

So nothing very material, though am glad to have the "insurance" in place in case there ever is a Eurogedden.

(This summer I will be passing part of an inheritance to my daughter who lives in France, so will ask her if she wants to lock in an fx-rate of say better than 1.2 Euros/£ for the spreadbet-amount - if so I will close the spreadbet at that level if I get the chance, and hedge with that xfer - fixing the relevant amount now in Euros).

Re CPT, the market really doesn't seem to know how to value the rump, given the large price movements (though difficult to tell how real these are sometimes, given the lack of granularity in many price feeds - eg Selftrade shows 1c or 2c in my portfolio but nothing in between, though the Selftrade position-value tracks more accurately. What price feeds do you or others use to get the accurate CPT price?

Last week I asked Carpathian via Redleaf if any plans to issue a Trading or NAV update, but got following reply "I have been in touch with the Company and they are continuing to work hard to recover as much equity as possible from the remaining assets and distribute this to shareholders and achieve an orderly wind-down this year, as described in the Trading Update released in December. I'm sorry I'm not able to provide any more precise information at the moment, but there will be a further update as soon as there is any concrete progress to report."

Would be interested if anyone can draw any inferences from that.

I'm hoping for 2c to 3c return here, as other posters have estimated further up the thread, but there are too many moving parts to be confident of the value, without an update from the company.

[praipus] 11/2/2012 14:40

Papy02 did you win with your currency hedge and CPT trade over all?

[fugwit] 07/2/2012 12:26

Papy02, Simplystockbroking but much the same. I now recall it didn't show up last time cpt had a payout until I got on the phone to them. Not too much of a problem providing I remember to chase. They are fine with sterling divi.

[papy02] 07/2/2012 11:47

fugwit, this is Selftrade right?

So 2 weeks after they paid the rest of us, the cheque to the custodian still hasn't cleared?! Sounds to me that this is their standard "dog ate my homework" excuse. So how come they have paid everyone else then?

I suggested to them that the FSA might be interested in the delays (and implicitly, the truthfulness of the excuses). The evening of the same day, the dividend appeared in my wife's account (5 days before "predicted").

Maybe bullying is the only tactic that works - suggest you try it!
I would be incandescent by now.

[fugwit] 07/2/2012 11:17

Still waiting here, "we are waiting for the cheque to clear", hey ho.

[papy02] 25/1/2012 19:12

Thanks GM. Looks like the holdup is with ST pooled nominee process then.

[goldmachine] 25/1/2012 18:46

Papy02 shares held in Crest with selftrade, took the capital return option