Concepta Share Discussion Threads

[grahamg8] 24/11/2010 07:34

Although it didn't say so the RNS refers to the Agrocor portfolio which was previously identified as being under offer. Relatively small net proceeds compared with Blue Knight and much smaller than Promenada which will be the big one when hopefully the sale is concluded. Even so it is all progress towards disposal of the assets and return of cash.

Had a look at the interim results yesterday and there were no unpleasant surprises.

Praipus I used to have Trinity Capital LSE:TRC but sold out a few months back. They are in a similar position of selling down assets (in India) and returning cash to shareholders. There is a large cash pile already waiting for distribution which looks as if it will be done via a share buy back. There was one in March-June 2009 which did wonders for the share price. Currently I am being held back by the ongoing legal disputes with a JV partner Immobilari and also with the former portfolio managers. Once these are sorted out then the shares should do very well thank you. I'm just hoping I can move fast enough to cash in.

[praipus] 23/11/2010 10:27

Thank grahamg8 are you in any other asset value arbitrage plays?

[grahamg8] 20/11/2010 08:51

Praipus, I've been here a while and have been waiting for the share price to close on the NAV. Still waiting but I'm sure we will make it eventually. Property assets gradually being turned into cash. Special divi of 4p paid on 26/01/10. Roll on January 2011 when the latest sales complete.

[praipus] 17/11/2010 15:14

Thanks gunter guil. I was trying to make sense of the RNS and got confused about the 87p returned after redemption statement. But I think it relates to the ratio of shares redeemed to new shares.

[gunter guil] 17/11/2010 15:06

yes... there used to be a very high regular dividend which was suspended....But more recently there was a special dividend designed to return cash to shareholders. dates escape me at the moment....

[praipus] 17/11/2010 10:39

Have they handed any money back to shareholders before?

[grahamg8] 17/11/2010 08:02

Excellent update IMO. Confirmation of sales of 3 Blue Knight properties and a timescale for part shareholder cash return reduces the risk somewhat. More sales have been added to the disposal pipeline. The big one is still Promenada which progresses albeit slowly. The sale price added a modest 0.6cps to the NAV less transaction costs of course.

[grahamg8] 12/11/2010 08:55

NAV 42.7c share price 25.5c. It's a no brainer.

loganair, too late mate. The decision has already been made. The whole portfolio is being sold asap and cash returned to the shareholders. The big investors such as Laxey and Weiss got fed up waiting for the management to sort the discount out and pulled the plug.

[praipus] 11/11/2010 16:20

From the results

Net Asset Value per share of 42.7 euro cents (as at 30 June 2009: 81 euro
cents)

[praipus] 11/11/2010 11:05

Is there any way to track the NAV here?

[loganair] 23/10/2010 09:26

This is why I think it best for Carpathian not to sell out or reduce their property portfolio at the moment, but to wait as it is likely to be worth much much more in the next couple of years.


From the biggest European pension funds to the smallest UK private investor, exposure to European commercial property has never been in so much demand. Memories of the spectacular falls in property values are clearly fading, with an estimated $281bn (£179bn) of global capital seeking a home in the real estate sector in 2011, according to consultancy DTZ's Great Wall of Money report – a 22 per cent increase on 2009 figures. The majority of available capital, $112bn, is targeting Europe.

The Financial Times has reported that the "next generation" of real estate funds is being prepared by institutions and private equity groups, claiming that more than E4bn (£3.51bn) of new equity is waiting to be unleashed in the form of new European property funds.

It's easy to see why the market's so gung-ho. The gap between government bond yields and property yields continues to widen, making property pricing look attractive by comparison, even though it is expensive by historic standards. However, the two biggest challenges – how to buy into the sector, and where to find value – are common to investors of all sizes.

[grahamg8] 29/9/2010 12:38

Sounds about right d-c. The enhanced incentive payments start at 34.5cps so I would think that the deal was set up with the knowledge that this amount could fairly readily be extracted, but the Manager would have to put in a reasonable days work to improve on this figure. 9.5/25 = 38% so roughly in the middle of your hopes. The timing has also been telegraphed as all the banking arrangements are for two years ending as far as I recall in December 2011. But most of the money will be paid following completion of the current sales in progress, fingers crossed, and that should mean around the end of this year. I assume Laxey have a pretty good idea that the sales really will go through otherwise they would have held off. Good news for anyone holding shares. IMO definitely worth hanging on, and possibly topping up if you have some spare cash and are happy with a bit of risk.

[deucetoace] 28/9/2010 17:02

Another 2.7m shares for Laxey (Credit Suisse) so they must think at these prices they will get a good shortish term return - I doubt they would bother for less than 25% minimum & probably nearer 50% wouldn't you think? I can imagine this at 30-35c once the sales have gone through say early 2011.

[smicker] 25/9/2010 16:13

Thanks Graham,I hadn't realised that I bought these among a number of small punts and some have gone on to do very well and i was just getting rid of some laggards where i dont have enough in them for it to be worth monitoring any longer.

[grahamg8] 25/9/2010 09:45

smicker 21p is just about par for the course. The price is 25-25.5 Euro cents ie sell at 1.1725£/Euro makes the quote 21.3p.

[loglorry1] 24/9/2010 16:37

I sold 23,500 shares two days ago at 25

[smicker] 24/9/2010 16:02

anyone tried to sell any over the past few days? I'm being quoted 21p to sell.

[grahamg8] 24/9/2010 13:43

deucetoace it's nice to have a bit of company for a change. In hindsight the cash difference is simply explained by the dividend of 4.5cps paid on 26 January. This cost 10.45m Euros by my calculation ie almost exactly the same as the difference between year end cash of 39.9m and 28 February figure of 29.3m. I should really have worked this out at the time. Despite the rather down beat H1 report at least the due diligence is still continuing on Blue Knight, Promenada, and now Agrokor added. Assuming the sales do go through then the NAV is currently 274.95m Euros and related debt 189.925m Euros. Allow for 10% discount to NAV to include some selling costs and the net proceeds are 57.53m Euros or 24.78cps or 21.1pps. So we should with a bit of luck get a payout of virtually the entire share price. That would still leave all the current cash and the rump of the properties which in all honesty aren't worth a lot once the rest of the debt is taken into account. On balance it still looks worth hanging on for the sales to go through. After which the company is going to look very different indeed.

[deucetoace] 23/8/2010 14:19

Grahamg8,
Thanks very much for posting your calculations. I am going through the preliminary results and the cash figure given is 39.9 @y/e and 29.3 @end Feb 2010. Hence the 2 figures you have noted down.

[grahamg8] 20/8/2010 08:35

Maiken. This is nothing new, see the posts #946-954. If you see loads of sells and the price stays the same or even rises then almost certainly there is a large buyer hidden in the background. Eventually Laxey and Brookdale will get to 29.9% and have to stop buying or launch a takeover bid. But of course there could be a third large buyer that we don't yet know about.

[roberts_rich] 19/8/2010 18:13

why all the sells something happening here

[grahamg8] 19/8/2010 08:48

Maiken, happy to oblige. All data from annual report, figures in Euros.

Core Portfolio 294.5m less 201.936m related debt, net asset 92.564m
Core Development Properties 58.45m less 39.0m, net 19.45m
Cash 29.3m

Total 141.314m, shares 232,148,175, NAV 60.87cps.
Incentive payment
nil to 17.25cps none
17.25-34.5cps 10% = deduct 1.725
>34.5cps 25% calc: 60.87-1.725 = 59.145, xs over 34.5 is 24.645 managers get 25% of this 6.161cps
Shareholders end up with 59.145 - 6.161 = 52.984cps.

Oops, discovered I had double counted the development properties. Sorry about that. Only partly my fault as CPT sometimes include the Development Property in their Core figures and sometimes list them separately. I just tried to do it all rather too quickly without triple checking the end calculation. Even so it's still a lot higher than the current share price and we should be seeing progressive distributions during the next 18 moths.

Non Core Portfolio & Land (quite a lot already sold/derecognised)
Value 135.3m less related debt 246.786m, net -111.486m or -48.02cps.

CPT have already begun discounting this deficit in order to get their net figure 32.6cps or 39.2cps after disposal of Plaza Portfolio. I simply continued to work on the same basis that these non core assets would eventually be taken over by the banks or disposed of and the net debt on them cancelled. eg Plaza is in the books at a net figure of -11.45m or -4.93cps whereas on disposal reported 7 May 2010 the effect was reported as +6.6cps but my method would use an adjustment of +4.93cps so there is even the possibility of the negative assets resulting in a surplus rather than just nil value. Also assumed that rental income would be sufficient to pay for administration and financing charges ie no adjustments to the year end figures.

Can't quite see where the difference occurred but also 7 May my notes say total cash was 39.9m but from the annual report I have pulled out a figure of 29.3m. So we have a mystery 10.6m sloshing around which may or may not exist. For the present I have ignored this, and will be happy to be surprised on the upside. DYOR

[maiken] 18/8/2010 09:26

Thx grahamg8.very useful.I'd agree with your conclusion altho' I can't see how you get to 69cps [59 +10 mgmt bonus] even on optimistic assumptions. would be grateful if you could quickly post that.

[grahamg8] 17/8/2010 16:43

The share price continues to creep up, and now Weiss/Brookdale have increased their holding from 49m to 58.6m (25.2%). As far as I can see Laxey/Credit Suisse still have 27.36% as 16 July 2010. So I've just revisited the annual report to 31/12/09 to see what price I might accept to sell out.

The contrast between core and non core assets is significant. Core asset property gearing 68.6%, non core property gearing 147%. As loans are/mostly are non recourse the banks are gradually ending up with the non core assets - Plaza Portfolio, Interfruct Portfolio, Ericsson Office, Marina Mokotow; and the land at Arad and Cluj has been sold for a nominal amount.

This seems to just leave the Point Portfolio and Babilonas of the non core portfolio. As the financial liabilities of these properties unwind the overall net asset value strangely rises because the debts exceed the asset value. So we might well end up with more than the 39.2cps quoted by CPT. The next news looks to be opening of the Riga Shopping Centre phase 1 in September.

There doesn't seem to be much left to downgrade so IMO we should be looking at 40 to 59cps based on current values and after allowing for a management bonus of around 10cps for returning cash to the shareholders. Still cheap at 25cps.

[deucetoace] 28/7/2010 13:36

Mark,
You could well be right. I have to admit that I thought the 2009 YE prices for Poland were very unlikely to fall at the time. The high level of institutional buying by Laxey gave me considerable comfort