Concepta Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 04/1/2012 20:14

Doing some rough calculations I don't think you are too far out:-

97.4m last nav
58m special dividend
1.7m gain from DDG
0.9m loss from Babilonas
2.5m loss from MacroMall and Satu Mare disposal
1.8m loss estimated on Baia Mare
27.9m dividend paid

That takes you down to 8m. Throw in another 1m or so in expenses and assume another 1m or so to wind it up and you are down to around 6m. That equates to circa 2.5c. I understand Riga is in for zero in the books so any recovery there would be the icing on the cake. Deferred tax of around 1.6m might also throw us a few extra crumbs. 2c looks very achievable.

[horndean eagle] 21/12/2011 13:04

Reckon we might see another 2c returned in time. Not really budgeting for much more than that.

[papy02] 21/12/2011 12:48

Xmas come early! Just bought at 1c :-)

StevenLondon3 - if worried about Euro, hedge it (eg spreadbet) - some discussion on that earlier on thread.

[stevenlondon3] 19/12/2011 11:09

Lets hope the euro does not fall out of bed.

[rbcrbc] 19/12/2011 11:04

My gut tells me to buy below 2c and sell above 3c. Although I very much doubt we will get offered 3c. It'll be interesting to see how much the spread is.

[grahamg8] 19/12/2011 08:14

RBCRBC agree lots of adjustments to H1 figures makes the 4.9cps a bit of a stab in the dark. My adjustments to get to year end figures cover: operating expenses, rental income, VAT refund Aug 2011, net income held not recovered, Baia Mare to be sold below book value, DDG settlement Dec 2011, Babilonas sold below book Dec 2011. Then we need to take into account what is likely to happen next year. All a bit of a guess as to what price we should bid up to, or indeed we might conclude that ahy price above zero is worth taking. A bird on the table is worth more than one in the bush?

[rbcrbc] 18/12/2011 12:07

I did wonder why the share price didnt jump immedately by 21/232 = 9c per share ;-)

And the Galeria Riga loss will be ringfenced. Baia Marie 3/23 = 1.2c per share, so pessimistically assuming that doesn't get sold we are looking at 4.9-1.2-a bit for liquidation costs (maybe 1m???) 0.5c so maybe a lowest next payment of 3c or so ???

[maiken] 18/12/2011 09:50

Re;tax liabilities ,they were only 1.6m at the next results statement to June 2011 so I suspect the reduction of 21m is already included

[rbcrbc] 17/12/2011 16:14

NAV was 41.9 at the half yearly report
-25c end sept = 16.9
-12c Jan = 4.9
So 4.9 ought to be the over simplified absolute maximum,

But:
will they sell the remaining two assets ?
Baia Marie was on the books for 3m
and Galeria Riga is more complex with a potential indebtedbess of 70.9m and not consolidated in the year end results.

with 232m shares in issue:
4.9c per share of remaining NAV would be worth EUR11m

The other interesting statement was:
The corporate restructuring of the Group is also substantially complete resulting in a reduction of EUR21 million in its tax liabilities from the amount provided at year end 31 December 2010.

So I'm getting confused......

[maiken] 17/12/2011 08:19

Grahamg8 and RBCRBC,
Any thoughts on the rump payment ?
The 12 cent payout [more than I expected ]next month encourages me.
I'm inclined to think they would not have paid that much without keeping back a generous safety margin to cover all eventualities in the final 2012 wind up .
Perhaps I've partaken of too much Xmas spirit ...

[grahamg8] 16/12/2011 16:33

Worse. We go ex distribution next week. Followed by an announcement before year end on how to vote for dividend or capital return. In my book that means no cash till early January. As per my previous thoughts. However I was only expecting around 6cps so pleasantly surprised with 12c payout, roughly 10pps at the current exchange rate. So all those new shares some of us bought are going to make a profit in less than three months; and they are still there carrying the rump of the value of the Company for a final demise in 2012.

[rbcrbc] 16/12/2011 09:38

Horndean - I dont think we get the 12c next week - we get the C shares next week, it'll then probably take a couple of weeks before the payment.

But very nice it is too - many thanks to the team at CPT and to laxey for the strategy.

[flying pig] 16/12/2011 09:33

I have been having problems getting the first payment. They sent me a Eurocheque which was undated and refused by my bank. I'm hoping it is finally sorted, but I have been promised the money more than once. I still await the cash.
Computershare are friendly, but it is frustrating. I also think there will be further correspondence as the euro rate is probably worse.

[papy02] 15/12/2011 15:57

ADVFN chart incorrect - seems to be trading 12c bid to 13c offer - oh well, too late :-)
(I'd been hoping to load up at 10c for some free money!)

[horndean eagle] 15/12/2011 15:42

Very happy ending. 12c back next week and the rump once last 2 assets are liquidated.

[flying pig] 08/12/2011 07:11

RNS Sale completed

[roberts_rich] 07/12/2011 17:25

on the next payment in jan will the shares drop again about has much as the payment?

[rbcrbc] 05/12/2011 16:54

I dont think we can properly answer the 'add on payment' question until we see how the ex-div price settles. With NAV in the region of 17c and the spread now 10-11.5 It looks very likely that the answer will be an easy YES.

The market is obvioulsy assuming a next payment of under 10c, so lets us assume 8c, that would leave a NAV of 9c vs a spread of 2-3.5c one would hope the spread would narrow but buying at 3.5c for a payment in ?9 months of ?7c is a bit of a no brainer.

Note: with 232m shares in issue 3.5c would value the co. at £7m so a 3% notifiable holding would cost £210k. Personally I would prefer to stay a little annonymouse and keep under that but some like to stick their heads above water...

[grahamg8] 03/12/2011 09:36

Agree Maiken the DDG settlement was completely incomphensible. But the bottom line was positive. Also agree RBCRBC that Babilonas has been sold at 0.9 Eur below book. However on my original calc in October the debt was allowed at 18.8m but they only seem to have 18.4m now. So the overall loss is lower at 0.5m Eur. Taken with the DDG settlement the two overall seem to be positive, but more importantly because property assets are still being turned into cash. The last distribution was late and that's why in a previous post I assumed that despite CPT repeatedly saying the next distribution would be in December I have assumed that we would get the announcement in December but the distribution would be in January. Of course we then have to decide whether to add yet more shares from the amounts we receive or not. Any views? And yes Maiken your buy in price of 8.46p is pretty good. I paid a bit more for mine in October.

[rbcrbc] 02/12/2011 11:42

p.s. just worth pointing out that the Babilonas sale was at EUR 0.9m less than previous valuation so that needs to be deducted from the EUR 1.7m gain on the settlement.

[rbcrbc] 01/12/2011 11:23

Final closing is anticipated to take place on 7 December 2011.

So maybe the next payment announcement next Thursday 8th Dec ???

The Company continues to review its working capital requirements with a view to making further distributions to shareholders in accordance with the previously declared intentions of the Board.

It doesn't actually say 'in line with previous timetable' End dec payment is looking too clsoe to call IMO so Early Jan ?

Definately worth a top-up just wish I had more spare cash....

[maiken] 01/12/2011 10:08

agreed sale today of babilonas seems good news at close to book value [ 24.1m euros ].
Co. confirmed they are still looking at next distribution in line with previous timetable i.e. before end of 2011.
there was also an announcement regarding the settlement of a dispute with DDG which,frankly,I didn't fully understand but which seemed to result in a writeback of 1.7m euros .I calculate this to equal an uplift to NAV of 0.73 cents.

The price has just drifted off since the big payout at end of Oct so
I topped up at 8.46 pence [not cents].
Any thoughts ?

[rbcrbc] 12/11/2011 11:54

Ok so the interim report hard copy has turned up (I havent yet read it all) and still says they are aiming to make a further distribution before the end of 2011.

The last distribution was announced on 21st Sept in the half yearly report, had a record date of 30th September with payments made around 26th October, so 1 month timescale.

I would expect a similar timescale this time (maybe a little longer to allow for Christmas post delays, but maybe a little shorter as they have experience of the system).

So I would expect an announcement of the payment amount sometime in the next two weeks. So last chance of a top-up - although I am overweight myself.

[papy02] 31/10/2011 14:08

Praipus,

yes thanks. Selftrade paid dividend this am.

I had checked w the Registrar (Computershare)and they paid for both payment alternatives on the 26th. So the delay on dividend option must have been the custodian (Equiniti) or Selftrade.

The spreadbet made a loss of £110 on a £24k initial position-size (£2.85/point). It should have made a £210 profit as I should have closed on the 26th, before the Eurozone announcement which caused the Euro to spike.

In the end I closed on 27th, as could not get info from Selftrade till well after the event as to what date the ex-rate would be determined. Equiniti in fact took the option to be paid in £ by CPT rather than in Euros, so the exchange-rate date was the 26th. (The benefit is we avoided the 1% or so ex-rate spread now operated by Selftrade).

I'm OK with the result - the spreadbet "insurance" cost me 0.4%, even after the above execution issues, for protection against potential risk of catastrophic decline in Euro. I still have a currency hedge spreadbet open on my remaining CPT position.

Cheers
Papy

[praipus] 31/10/2011 11:47

Papy02 have you got your money yet and how did your Euro hedge go?