Concepta Share Discussion Threads

[grahamg8] 31/10/2011 08:50

Over the week-end I took a more detailed look at the half year report. After making some cautious assumptions I came up with the current potential distribution as 13.5 to 14.0cps which seems to be pretty close to the accrual for the distribution bonus of 14.5cps. This compares favourably with the current share price of 9.5/10.5c. Most of the unsold properties now have offers in place and 'arrangements have been made to deal with unsold properties at 31/12/11'. Also, of the admin costs most are for the property managers and their contract ends at 31/12/11. Some upside from finance income and Babilonas net rental income surplus, over and above the cost of debt. The major downside seems to be 3m retention on Osawa recovery of which is seen to be uncertain. Timescales look very good with December and 2012 distributions before winding up. So a roughly 30-40% return on the cards in a 14 month timescale looks like a fair risk/reward.

I also looked back at the share price discount to NAV which was quite interesting. Clearly at the final winding up the NAV is zero and the discount is also zero.
post 07/05/10 results to 31/12/09 published, discount 16.6cps
post 14/09/10 results to 30/06/10 published, discount 17.2cps
post 11/05/11 results to 31/12/10 published, discount 7.5cps
post 21/09/11 results to 30/06/11 published, discount 8.8cps
post 27/10/11 25c distribution @ 10cps, discount 6.9cps.

Confidence in the NAV and distribution programme does seem to be growing. This would suggest an ultimate payout of 16.9c with no adjustments at all. The adjustment to 13.5 - 14.0c may therefore be too conservative.

[grahamg8] 28/10/2011 15:23

RBCRBC and Papy you may well be right that the delay is because you are taking the dividend route. My shares were all SIPPed so I could have taken a divi or capital and I don't think it would have made any difference for tax purposes. I opted for capital just in case and so perhaps saved a day or two as a result.

[papy02] 28/10/2011 10:31

Thanks for the ex-rate info. Still nothing in my wife's ST a/c. We chose the dividend option - maybe that's a day or so later.

[rbcrbc] 28/10/2011 10:00

Graham - I too bought over the last couple of weeks to avoid the rush, I guess if we hadnt bought early the rush would have happened ;-)

No sign of the payment in HL yet, I'll probably call them later when I wake up properly.

£ quoted on my dividend counterfoil was 21.77321p ex-rate 1.1482

[grahamg8] 28/10/2011 07:48

RBCRBC. My shares are with Hargreaves so I don't see why you are having to wait. Perhaps today. No buys today doesn't mean I didn't buy. I just did it a few days ago with some spare cash from another share sale. The idea was to beat the rush but so far this precaution doesn't seem to have been necessary.

[goldmachine] 27/10/2011 19:35

Papy02

Have cash in my selftrade account today though they could not give me a date in an internal email recieved today.
Payment in £ is .217731 per share

[papy02] 27/10/2011 19:13

Selftrade not paid yet either and can't get any sense re what date the money will be exchanged Eur -> £, so I can close my hedging currency spreadbet.

My currency spreadbet went from profit last night to loss tonight. In absence of any info I've closed tonight the amount that covered the 25c distribution. I bet that Selftrade use the weaker Euro rate of yesterday - if so it will cost me a couple of % slippage :-(

I'd be very interested what ex-rate you received your 25c distribution at.
(as potential ammunition to use with ST)

[rbcrbc] 27/10/2011 17:22

The cheque arrived today for my certified holding, but no payment has shown up yet in my nominnee account (Hargreaves Lansdown). Interesting that no trades are showing up on LSE or PLUS for today, must have been a big buy graham if the MM's are holding it to show later as a delayed trade ;-)

[grahamg8] 27/10/2011 16:35

Strangely quiet. I'm pleased to say my account was credited with the cash from the B shares today, and nearly all has been reinvested in the Ordinaries ready for the next payout around Christmas time.

You can all now rush in and buy as well. I really don't mind, honest.

[grahamg8] 14/10/2011 15:44

Agree RBCRBC fast footwork is required to maximise the profit potential. But the upside looks to be pretty large so even the sluggards can make money this time round IMO.

[rbcrbc] 14/10/2011 11:26

Papy - I didnt take you comment as negative, I was just pleased to see that someone thought as we do.

Graham - I would agree that rolling the next payment seems like a no-brainer at these prices, I am just worried that too many people will see that so we wont 10c hold for long. Once payments start appearing this could rise significantly especially if they give any sort of indication of the next payment value.

It is probably escrow and repatriation that will determine how much is left for the 12 month payment, but I have gone overweight in anticipation of a rise on 26th.

[grahamg8] 14/10/2011 11:10

Interesting debate on NAV and future distributions. I have to admit having missed the accrual of the management performance fees. The 9.5m Euros is worth about 4cps. Another significant positive is that by value 97% of properties had been sold as per H1 results 21 September so there is virtually no risk from falling property values. In addition 'cash' was reported as 110.9m Euros although I'm sure some of this is still held in Eastern Europe and needs to be recovered, and the 25c distribution will only cost 58.04m. This says to me that CPT could pay as much as 16cps in the next distribution which is supposed to take place before 31 December which I take to mean the announcement will be then and the payment during January as per the current payout.

Based on past performance I am working on the basis that we would get about 8cps, with the balance to follow in 2012. Take the NAV at 40.95c deduct 25c and 8c leaves 8.05c assets and these would cost you just 2cps at todays price of 10cps after deducting the next distribution of 8cps or so.

The conclusion is that rolling the B share proceeds into new shares makes a great deal of sense not just at todays price but even if it creeps up a bit in the next two weeks. DYOR.

[papy02] 12/10/2011 20:41

Sorry didn't mean to come across as negative ... trying to restrain myself from going further overweight here :-)

On re-reading the Half Year report it looks probable they've received the money for all/most of the core portfolio sold pre June 30, so that's unlikely to be at risk, and resultant distributions should exceed the current share price if the CPT Perf Fee accrual is to be believed.

So it does look like there is minimal downside at 10c/share, and potential upside up to 50% (with some risks attached to that).

[rbcrbc] 12/10/2011 16:45

Somebody obviously thinks that there is value here with 2mill (approx 1% of the company) bought on the bell !!

[rbcrbc] 12/10/2011 09:54

The half yearly report said:

we are also aiming to make a further distribution before the end of 2011

And further down:

At some time after 31 December 2011, the Company intends to effect a further distribution to shareholders of any residual surplus cash balance and to seek shareholders' approval to de-list the Company from the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange and in due course thereafter to commence and implement an orderly members voluntary liquidation, of itself and its then remaining subsidiaries.

The Board expects that this process will be initiated within the next 12 months......

So I would expect three more payments.

1 - End December / Early Jan.
2 - In 12 months time.
3 - A final (very small) payment from the liquidator.

What we do know is that the NAV of 41.9c minus 25c = 16.9c is 69% highre than the current share price
I think that the conclusion from the post announcement discussions was that final liquidation costs were excluded from the NAV but a fair estimate for everything else was included.

My own estimate of the liquidators costs is probably a max of 1c per share.

So we have a potential 50% uplift, most coming probably around the end of the year and some in 12 months time - definately worth waiting for IMO.

I have added a few recently at around 10c in the expectation that the payment on/around 26th will be recycled back in here by many (myself included if the price remains around 10c)

[roberts_rich] 11/10/2011 13:13

will we be still getting another divi in dec and is it still worth hanging on for ?

[rbcrbc] 10/10/2011 17:26

Interesting 1.5m of automated sells at the end of the day and the price hardly moves.....

[maanie_2660] 06/10/2011 17:20

Thanks Papy02.

[papy02] 06/10/2011 11:12

maanie

with 2 you get the dividend "on or about Oct 26th 2011", so there is no or minimal difference in the timing of the 2 options.

After payment of the one-off Dividend, the B-shares then become Deferred shares with negligible value (so you can claim a capital loss then with a "negligible value" claim to HMRC, or the company may buy the Deferred shares back for effectively zero some time in future (prob next tax-yr?) creating a capital loss then instead if preferred.

[maanie_2660] 06/10/2011 11:06

Do I understand it correctly that option 1 means immediate cash payment in exchange for B shares and 2 means hanging on to B share and getting divident in future?

[praipus] 04/10/2011 15:34

Thanks jonwig

[jonwig] 04/10/2011 15:05

Praipus - go to the Downloads tab on the website.

[praipus] 04/10/2011 14:15

Nothing on the website, nothing on your link Papy02, please can you tell me/the BB where you got the info for the payment date?

[papy02] 04/10/2011 13:17

Payout quicker than we thought:-)


From the Circular:

Election Deadline: 11.00 a.m. on 19 October 2011
[I assume brokers will set earlier deadlines]

Credit CREST accounts: on or around 26 October 2011