Concepta Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 28/7/2010 13:35

Agreed Mark. Took the opportunity to top up just now. I'd be surprised to see this less than 40c by the year end assuming a cheeky offer isn't made.

[marben100] 28/7/2010 13:26

Rather than being serious about selling assets, IMO the key bit about the last RNS was:

"The aggregate prices currently offered for the above assets are close to the 2009 year end valuations."

No-one believed the year end valuations. Concrete offers on the table at around those values, however, changes the ball game rather radically. ;0)

They do also say, however:

"The due diligence and contract negotiation periods within the Polish market can typically take several months before any conclusion is reached. "

So we may have to continue to be patient (& hope that Europe doesn't double-dip before sales can be concluded!). I'll be pleasantly surprised if there's anything significant in time for the AGM.

Cheers,

Mark

[deucetoace] 28/7/2010 12:51

It does look like the market needed to see an rns confiming that they are serious about selling assets before it considered re-rating to something near sensible.

Given that the AGM is quite close I think that there is a good chance they will have something more concrete to say then

[marben100] 28/7/2010 12:44

Think the market's seen/understood the potential/likely return that I mentioned. On L2, currently 435K shares being bid for at or above 19c and only 95K being offered in total (30.4K on the offer @ 20.75c).

[sscrabble] 27/7/2010 17:15

bit of a rise at the end

[marben100] 27/7/2010 12:41

g8,

There are undoubtedly others holding/watching but no point posting for the sake of it. Only when they/we've got something meaningful to say.

FYI the critical levels are 75% to pass a special resolution to delist the company; 90% to compulsorily purchase all remaining outstanding shares. [assuming IoM law is similar to UK law in those respects.]

From a practical POV, however, 50% is enough to take complete control of the Board, should Weiss/Laxey wish to do so.

Also worth noting that, normally, if Weiss/Laxey are found to be acting together, then they must make a mandatory bid, as jointly they're already way over the 30% level. However, not sure the City Code applies to CPT, again being an IoM company.

Cheers,

Mark

[grahamg8] 27/7/2010 10:23

Mark/Marben. Great to have someone else contributing. It has been a bit lonely here recently. I agree the Weiss purchase was a swap, see my post #952. Weiss/Laxey can make an offer at any price they like. It's up to the other shareholders to accept or decline. They would need overwhelming acceptances to force the last few shareholders to sell. I think the figure is >90%. The NAV at 31/12/09 was 32.6cps, plus an upward revision of 6.6cps due the Plaza portfolio refinancing post year end. So we should be looking at a figure somewhere in the region of 43cps. OK so having certainty and early cash is worth a bit of a reduction but not by a great deal. Just look at the offers on the table. My figures are a bit different from yours but the message is still very much the same. Anyone who accepts a share offer at much lower than 35cps needs their head examining:

Assuming the year end figures still hold, and the sales go through at that valuation. All figures Euros

Promenada, Warsaw value 157,500k loan 102,509k
Blue Knight
Osowa, Gdansk 32,500k 21,232k
Tulipan, Lodz 29,000k 15,763k
Kometa, Torun 6,300k 3,923k
Centrum, Sosnowiec 3,650k 2,860k
Total value 228,950,000, total loans 146,287,000, net 82,663,000
Divide by 232,148,175 shares = 35.6cps

DYOR as always. I'm holding at the very least.

[marben100] 27/7/2010 08:26

By my reckoning, after associated debt is repaid, the disposals cited today, at close to 2009 valuations would net around €75m. :0)

[marben100] 26/7/2010 18:10

Well, g8, today's notice relates to a transaction carried out on 20th. On that day two trades for 9.3m are shown, at the same price of 19c. Undoubtedly an off-market purchase by Weiss from a vendor who wanted to get out. I guess the balance of the 14m odd shares that today's notice shows Weiss acquired were mopped up in the market.

Now that Weiss/Laxey have close to 50% of the company between them, wonder whether they'll launch a joint lowball bid? Would still have to be at a premium to today's price to get support, though.

Cheers,

Mark

[grahamg8] 26/7/2010 17:06

So it was Weiss/Brookdale doing the buying. Where did they get the shares from though, a single large seller or by mopping up surplus in the market generally. Assuming Laxey/Credit Suisse still have 63.514m shares 27.36% it means that the number of shares left in circulation is becoming quite limited.

[grahamg8] 20/7/2010 17:06

Sudden surge in trades to 19m represents 8% of the whole company. But it looks a bit like a swap at matching price. Even so 4% in one day says someone thinks there is value here. News soon or do we have to wait till the AGM on 6 August? The announcement on 14 July was a bit coy as it implied there was no cash yet available to distribute. Whereas on 7 May uncommitted cash was roughly 7cps. So the return mechanism may get used a lot sooner than we have been led to be believed.

[deucetoace] 19/7/2010 09:27

According to the LSE a small buy just went through at over 19c (it says 20c but they round to the nearest for some daft reason on the site). It's the first I have seen where 20c has been stated as the price so I assume it is 19.5c anyhow. For such a small buy - just over 6500 shares - it rather suggests stock is getting very tight (or someone got screwed :))

[deucetoace] 06/7/2010 16:50

Laxey adding to their holding now over 27% - seems +ve news

[grahamg8] 02/7/2010 17:24

See my #946. Still mostly sells and yet the price stays steady or even rises slightly. Patience needed, possibly 3 more months before we see the interims! Following Plaza Portfolio sale the NAV looks like 39.2cps or almost exactly double the present share price So plenty of upside potential as long as future disposals are made at sensible prices.

[rbcrbc] 21/5/2010 17:05

Maybe Laxey are building up their stake for a takeover attempt.

But yes it does look like we might get a delayed late reported trade at some point.

[grahamg8] 21/5/2010 16:10

Does anyone else think that something strange is going on? Buys far less than sales throughout this week and yet the share price keeps ticking up. Total buys 95k, total sales 967k ie 1:10 buy:sell. The share price should have plunged along with the rest of the market.

[grahamg8] 07/5/2010 08:09

FY results as usual a huge document. As I read it NAV is 32.6cps + 6.6cps post year end for disposal of Plaza portfolio. Ongoing business basis looks workable - rental income 27.5mEuros, admin 5.4mEuro and interest rate average 5.14% on 364.8mEuros = 18.8mEuros ie we should get a trading surplus of around 3.3mEurospa going forward. Most loans set up to cover trading life of the business and end December 2011 ie we should see our money back by then. 71% portfolio in Poland which is beginning to become a more normal and active property investment environment - read we can now sell properties more easily and at more realistic prices. Plenty of cash to provide working capital. No reason to sell shares on the basis of this news in IMHO. DYOR.

[kramch] 05/5/2010 17:28

sounds terrible, 50c of assets lifted from our pockets for 20c, legalised robbery! K.

[gunter guil] 05/5/2010 16:57

sounds good.

[rbcrbc] 05/5/2010 16:31

Results on Friday.

Bid on Monday ?

Party on Tuesday ??

[kimboy2] 24/4/2010 00:10

The vendor can only have been Weiss or Invesco.

[marben100] 23/4/2010 21:27

Hi kramch - nice to see you earlier this week. :0)

"However I am surprised they were able to buy, Shepherd only left the board a few weeks ago and must have had a pretty good idea of the results."

The scale of their purchase, however, clearly wasn't an on-market transaction. Undoubtedly they were dealing with another major investor (would be nice to have an RNS to know who sold ;0)). Either the transaction was done on an "arms length basis", i.e. Shepherd wasn't directly involved in the deal and is presumed not to have disclosed confidential information to his colleagues (there are supposed to be "chinese walls"), or Laxey would have disclosed what they knew to the vendor. If that turned out not to be the case, I think the vendor would have grounds for complaint.

Cheers,

Mark

[kramch] 23/4/2010 16:31

My back-of-an envelope valuation was c 40c just including the good portfolio. With the recovery over the last 3 months as CEE property yields start to fall back from distressed levels that should now be 50c plus.

Also the 13c of cash should now be significantly greater as the cash positive properties are mainly isolated and can remit funds to the centre.

This is not the multiple car crash it looks like at first glance, half the vehicles are perfectly roadworthy (if I can stretch the analogy).

I reckon Laxey seized the opportunity when the share price fell back to 12 - 15c in March, and now at 30% want to take charge.

What their relationship will now be with the management will be very interesting. Certainly they will have more flexibility if CPT goes private.

However I am surprised they were able to buy, Shepherd only left the board a few weeks ago and must have had a pretty good idea of the results.

I think a 25c deal would be daylight robbery, but hey, plus ca change..? K.

[rbcrbc] 23/4/2010 09:53

Agree with the likley bid scenario, the big buy yesterday was at 20c so that sets a floor on the price they must bid for the rest, I cant see any reason they would initially go higher than that. Bid at 20c and see what response they get before upping the bid if necessary.

Will they bid before results are out on 7th May ?

Unlikely IMO, after 7th May they can claim their director has no relevant inside information.

The fascinating question is: will it bring a counter bid out into the open ? From the new management agreement there seems to be thoughts that the real assets value is a little north of 34c, so anyone else considering a bid is likely to happilly go over 20c.

Hold on tight time.....
I personally suspect the winning bid might be at 25c, but I hope for more.