Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 13/4/2007 14:48

Idioterna, the BDI is up a massive 7 points today to 5,553. Champers all round!

I bet CKN would be delighted for the BDI to hold at these levels for the rest of the year, after all it's not that far off of all-time highs.

PS : the spread is an amazing 0.5p!

[rivaldo] 13/4/2007 07:43

Ta Idioterna, missed that about Buffet. Excellent stuff here just published:



"FREIGHT & COMMODITIES
Coal, iron-ore ship rates may climb to record on China, port bottlenecks
By: Bloomberg
Published: 13 Apr 07 - 0:00

Shipping rates for iron-ore and coal may rise to a record this year and gain further until 2010, driven by demand from China, and port bottlenecks, execu-tives and analysts said.

"We could see a record level for moving bulk this year," said Lee Jong Chul, CEO at STX Pan Ocean, South Korea's largest carrier of bulk commodities. "The recent market senti- ment, congestion at ports and unexpectedly strong demand from China will bring rates to levels last seen in 2004," Lee said in an interview from Singapore earlier this month.

The Baltic Dry Bulk Index, the benchmark for world bulk-freight rates, has risen to a two-year high on China's increasing use of raw materials. The more than doubling of rates means higher costs for steelmakers and utilities, ranging from Arcelor Mittal to Tokyo Electric Power."

""China is still growing at a very rapid pace," Douglas Hsu, chair- person of U-Ming Marine Trans-port, a Taiwanese bulk carrier, said in an interview in Singapore. "We will see the rate increase sustained this year because of the increase in demand and Australian port congestion."

Delays at Newcastle, Australia, the world's biggest port for coal shipments, have contributed to higher rates. Vessels in Newcastle have to wait about 30 days to load because of a lack of capacity, STX Pan Ocean's Lee said.

The Baltic Dry Index has risen 24% this year after an 80% surge in 2006, according to the Baltic Exchange in London. It rose a record 6 208 in December 2004, averaging 4 511 that year. The average so far this year is 4 692.

"The problem of congestion is not an issue that will be resolved quickly," Lee said. As many as 300 of the largest bulk carriers are waiting to load or discharge at any one time, tying up 15% of global capa-city, Lee said."

""The dry sector is fundament-ally strong," Follis said at the Sea-Asia conference, in Singapore. "A limited fleet is expected to keep tonnage shipping relatively tight."

Olam International, which supplies agricultural commodities to companies including Nestl�, expects the rise in freight rates to persist this year.

"Demand for raw materials, port congestion and longer distances travelled are supportive of higher freight rates," said Sunny Verghese, CE of Singapore-based Olam."

[idioterna] 12/4/2007 16:41

Small dip in BDI today, only 10 points so not really worth a mention, but since we indicate 4 point rises it only seems fair ;-)

Funny that nobody mentioned Buffet buying into the sector this week, fair enough it was rail, but freight nontheless. Quite happy to follow his advice and sit on my holding for the dividends this year.

[rivaldo] 12/4/2007 08:05

Hello - the usual morning markdown has been replaced by a big uptick...new highs coming any minute if not already?

[rivaldo] 11/4/2007 22:58

More reassuring views on a shipping up-cycle until 2009 here:



"The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a yardstick of dry bulk shipping rates that is seen as a good indicator of future economic growth and production, has risen 6.4 percent this year to 4,766 on March 2 (my edit - now 5,556), the sources said. The BDI was set up January 4, 1985 with a base index of 1,000.

``Since 2002, container shipping has risen 10 percent annually, while the supply of container ships is tight,¡¯¡¯ Yonhap News quoted Ji Hun-seok, an analyst at NH Securities, as saying."

"Shipping rates may continue to rise largely due to an increase in global trade and partly because of the booming demand for raw materials from Chinese steel makers, analysts said."

"`The shipping industry is forecast to remain in an up-cycle until 2009 on rising shipping rates and stable fuel prices,¡¯¡¯ Yang Ji-hwan, an analyst at Daishin Securities, was quoted as saying."

[rivaldo] 11/4/2007 15:12

The BDI is up once more, 4 points to 5,556. The afternoon buying should hit soon judging by past form.

[stromboli1] 11/4/2007 12:46

onwards and upwards please

[rivaldo] 11/4/2007 12:22

Some buying on PLUS too - about £50k traded so far, and maybe bigger buys not reported yet?

Great to be through 1000p. Onward to the 1300p broker target now? I've noted a number of new articles on Google about the BDI being at the highest for some time, so maybe this news is finally filtering through to the investment community.

[iandippie] 11/4/2007 12:21

hardly noticed this today. been salivating over my SMC spread! looks like a new CKN high for 2006 is on the cards today. :-)

[hawks11] 11/4/2007 12:07

There doesn't seem a great deal of trades or volume for the 2.09% movement upwards, but I am pleased to see it.

[rochdae] 11/4/2007 11:55

Looks like it's going to pop.

[cambium] 11/4/2007 11:30

That pm push could take it above £10 where it belongs

[rivaldo] 11/4/2007 11:11

Looking promising today - the afternoon effect is happening early :o))

[rivaldo] 10/4/2007 16:10

LOL! 3 out of 4 ain't bad....and CKN could go 30p up in no time. Hopefully.

[iandippie] 10/4/2007 16:02

spoke to soon.

[iandippie] 10/4/2007 16:00

Hey Riv, you may be right about my timing after all! I bought TRI early last week for my brother, topped up his RNWH and CCT at 8am, and CKN half an hour ago! If only it were always this easy!

[rivaldo] 10/4/2007 15:58

Here we go - those afternoon buyers once again...

[rivaldo] 10/4/2007 15:13

The BDI is up yet again, another 20 today, to 5,552. How much higher will it go before the City notices?!

[rivaldo] 09/4/2007 08:16

FYI...



"The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of rates for transporting dry-bulk goods across a range of ship sizes and routes, rose 0.8 percent to 5532 on April 5, the highest since Dec. 14, 2004. The measure has dropped on only three of the last 34 trading days."

[rivaldo] 05/4/2007 15:47

Here we go - the usual afternoon upturn...

[rivaldo] 05/4/2007 14:20

I just clicked here, and the BDI is up yet again, 45 points to 5,532...



Is it a half day today, or is that site updated hourly? Whichever, it's still scorching ahead :o))

[idioterna] 05/4/2007 09:54

You've gotta say that since november we have a chart to die for! Following this re-test of £9.50 we should rise to £10.50 by May and perhaps a little higher as we close on ex-divi day.

[rivaldo] 05/4/2007 09:39

You do OK from what I've seen!

Hard to believe. CKN officially closed at 974p-975p last night at 4.30 - but yet again it opened way below the previous close at 950p-972p! No doubt as usual the spread will close up during the day and we'll be back at 970p in a jiffy.

I suppose the upside is if we want to buy more we know that first thing in the morning is the time to do so.

[iandippie] 05/4/2007 07:38

"Hope your timing is as good as normal Ian!" LOL. You must be talking about a different Ian.

[rivaldo] 04/4/2007 20:41

Hope your timing is as good as normal Ian!

Just to pep things up again, the BDI was up once more today, 48 to 5,487...