Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[cambium] 05/7/2007 10:01

Clarkson PLC said the group's trading in the
first half continues to be significantly ahead of the comparable period last
year and in line with management expectations.
The company said in its pre-trading statement for the first half ended June
that it has agreed buy Normarine Offshore Consultants (USA) Inc for 2.7 mln stg
in shares. Normarine Offshore will be merged with its Houston operation.
The company said it has continued to deliver growth across the business
despite the continuing weak US dollar and ongoing absorbed legal costs
associated with the Soviet shipping cases.
Chief executive Richard Fulford-Smith said the company is confident of
further progress in the second half and is planning to further spread its base
within shipping and shipping related products.
Normarine Offshore Consultants is one of the leading brokers in the offshore
industry serving clients worldwide.

yippeee

[idioterna] 21/6/2007 09:48

Sovkomflot has some powerful friends:

Jun 21. Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with Sovkomflot CEO Sergey Frank that he had signed off on an order establishing a new concern on the basis of Sovkomflot and Novoship "You know I placed my signature on the order setting up a new shipping company on the basis of the two existing concerns – Sovkomflot and Novoship" – the President said addressing Frank.

[idle dreamer] 11/6/2007 22:35

I think yours is a very perceptive point, Idioterna.

I must confess to slightly trimming my holding since my last post, mainly because I needed the margin, at a small profit but much smaller than I was expecting.

[idioterna] 11/6/2007 10:20

I think that a lot of those big buys that came in when the price dipped from 950 to 760 were quite happy to wait for the dividend. The risk was low and the dividend was high, but as we draw closer to the courtroom the risk increases and a higher proportion of sells will emerge. Let's see if the BDI and capesize can hold up through the summer, that should lend additional support.

[hawks11] 11/6/2007 09:18

I am committed for the long term and have been for a long time Idle Dreamer and will double up perhaps if it drops much further as in the long term there are nothing but plusses. In an ISA of course.

[idle dreamer] 05/6/2007 11:17

Well Minuteman, it might make sense to sell at 900 to protect capital, but it was only a few weeks ago it spiked down to 760 and I didn't sell then (might have reduced had I been watching the screen). And it recovered pretty quickly.

Looking at my history with CKN I have lost out when I have sold and stood aside. I first bought in 2002 at 249.4p and then sold in 2004 at 601.25. Felt pleased but they carried on up and I had to pay 808 to buy back in again in 2005. So my experience with CKN inclines me to a buy and hold approach, at least until their value is appreciated by the market. When this court case is out of the way I think CKN should be somewhere between 1300-1500 based on earnings and growth.

I bought more a couple of months ago at 891 and 896 and also have a SB position at an average of 926.5. So I guess you could say I am quite committed to CKN

[minuteman] 05/6/2007 06:54

Or £9.00 -

[idle dreamer] 04/6/2007 22:56

Trying to pick a sell point and buy back when it falls is very difficult. CKN seems to be very unpredictable within its current trading range of 900-1000 ish. So I shall just sit tight for the moment, certainly until it reaches 1000+.

ID

[truthmerchant] 31/5/2007 22:26

$54mill.... the total exposure to the Russkies??? That remains to be seen.... Still, it's all a game, innit??

TM

[minuteman] 31/5/2007 18:09

Sounds more a hold or watch to me not a buy?

[mick33] 30/5/2007 21:59

THE SHIPPING MARKET CAN CHANGE AS QUICKLY AS the shipping forecast,so buying and selling shares in ship brokers is all about timing.and right now ,conditions look promising for clarkson.The dry side of the shipping market-cargoes such as iron ore and grain- is enjoying a rapid recovery and as the worlds largest broker in dry cargoes ,clarkson is well placed to benefit.
The baltic dry index,which tracks the cost of shipping dry cargoes has soared 50 percent to 6603 since the start of the year. its now just short of its all time high and more than double its average level during 2006.
But last year ,clarksons dry-ship broking profits dropped from 7.1m to 6.0m
due to weak market conditions,so this recent recovery in dry shipping rates should result in a big uplift in profits- especially as last years numbers are so weak.The first full-year contribution from australian dry-bulk specialist anchor cross,acquired in september ,will boost this years performance..
There should be a marked improvement in clarksons sale-and -purchase business
,too,which involes advising the buyers and sellers of ships.A weaker market in second-hand ships and few sales of fleets hit its profits last year,but clarkson says that this market is now improving.The turnaround is visible in the divisions forward order book,which stood at $21m on 31 december -31 percent higher than a year earlier..
Clarkson has also diversified into new areas of the shipping market and some of these ventures have proved successful,such as the move into chemicals sector
through the acquisition of plowrights and genchem last year.Clarkson has established a foothold in what is a specialised market where there is scope for research and consultancy work-and that should cut its dependence on volatile shipping rates..
Other diversifications include a joint venture in shipping liquefied natural gas, whereby clarkson has formed one of only two large -scale consultants to this rapidly growing industry.In addition ,clarkson has launched a hedge fund,which trades freight rate contracts and shipping company shares and according to management, is performing in the top quartile of comparative funds.
That said , with shipping rates denominated in US dollars, clarkson is still exposed to the weak currency.However ,the effect sould be more than offset by the recovery in dry bulk-rates and the sale-and-purchase business,plus the contribution from acquisitions..
OF greater concern is a legal action relating to commissions that clarkson paid between 2001 and 2004 . It faces two-claims one for $33m from a state owned russian shipping company,sovcomflot,and a second for $21m from novoship,a russian shipping company that is merging with sovcomflot.Clarksons bosses argue that the company is caught up as a third party in litigation between waring russian interests and maintain that their subsidiary paid the commissions under the direct instruction of its clients .
Even so,the matter has cast a shadow over the shares-they fell 11 per cent to 860p when the news broke,they have since recovered somewhat,but are still trading well below where they should be,given the strength of the shipping market:their rating isa lowly 11 times forecast earnings. By contrast,last september ,the rating was 15 times earnings-even though the shipping market was weaker.
So this opens up an opportunity for investors who are willing to take the risks associated with the court case .AFTER ALL ,IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO ,THE CLAIMS ARE FOR LITTLE MORE THAN THE NET CASH THAT CLARKSON CARRIES
--BUY--

[sambessey] 30/5/2007 21:32

We have seen it so many times- it bounces off 10xx and back down to 900- I know what I will be doing come 1030p :)

I do believe in the long- term fundamentals for CKN but the court case worries me a bit and I guess is holding the price back too.

[haywards26] 30/5/2007 20:58

truthmerchant

I cant remember the exact wording, but the IC mentioned the court case being paid straight out of cash reserves IF the verdict went against CKN so fully covered. They also mentioned the diversified operations of CKN and growth to come.

[idle dreamer] 30/5/2007 16:24

Tempting to take a profit on half or a third of my position but seems to be a lot of buying and could easily hit 1000 again, so I am opting for masterly inactivity. Otherwise known as idleness.

[nickcduk] 30/5/2007 15:48

Idle Dreamer - I trade via the order book so I get better prices than trading through a normal broker. I think the XD damage was done this morning but as you point out it wasn't exactly noticable. I will have to chase up my broker to find out if it did actually go XD or not today.

[idle dreamer] 30/5/2007 15:29

Nick, you got a good price, bearing in mind the spread on this stock. Who do you trade with?

Going xd does not seem to have have made much difference. I'm still not sure if it was yesterday's late fall or this mornings early fall that was the result of going xd, but whichever, CKN seems to have recovered almost at once.

[nickcduk] 30/5/2007 10:41

Im out as of this morning at 939p. I think im entitled to the dividend which will mean I will bagged about 50p on this trade. Markets look a little nervy so there may be plenty more spikes to take advantage of in the coming days and weeks. Good luck to all you long termers.

[idle dreamer] 29/5/2007 22:56

It seems to me that the Russians will have to prove loss, that is financial loss (e.g. loss of earnings) rather than for example loss of revenue (if, for example CKN had steered a shipbuilkding contract unreasonably to another company).

I cannot believe that the Russians would be able to establish a loss in court anywhere near the amounts being claimed.

Back to the sudden fall today, I would certainly hope that it doesn't drop another 24p tomorrow. Does going xd occur when the market closes today or during the course of tomorrow? I had imagined that if they go xd on the 30th, this means that you have to hold at close of business on the 29th to get the dividend. But is it possible that there was some kind of cut off applied at 16:25 and the mark-down followed?

[truthmerchant] 29/5/2007 21:05

Haywards26 et al,

look at market cap of this co and then the size of the claim from the Russians and then see whether this share is worth what IC says it is. Wld like to know what IC says, in fact? Can you post their write up?

TM

[deadly] 29/5/2007 17:49

that is tomorrow, so if you managed to buy then good for you. But I'd be disappointed if it fell as much again tomorrow.

[idle dreamer] 29/5/2007 17:27

Presumably the sharp fall at the end of the day was CKN going ex-div. Or is that tomorrow?

[sambessey] 28/5/2007 16:33

Thanks Haywards, veeeery interesting :) Lets hope it translates into some northbound movement tomorrow!

[haywards26] 28/5/2007 14:38

Investors Chronicle put a recommendation of BUY in this weeks edition for CKN

[truthmerchant] 26/5/2007 20:41

oh yeah baby, trading exceeding expectations. it'll need to after the russians drag them thru the courts