Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[sambessey] 25/5/2007 21:35

Yes I too believe that CKN is worth ~30-40% more than its current price. The reason I got out last week though was due to the uncertainty re the court case and the fact that CKN has firmly established a trading range of 900- 1040p (I sold at the top end of that obviously). I would love to see this company at its true valuation, but I fear it may not happen for a while yet.

I bought back in as I struggled to find many stocks that can be held in an ISA with such good potential growth and a decent divi (Admittedly I don't have as much time as I would like to scour all the markets due to work consuming my life at the moment!!) so coming back to CKN seemed a good move for the short term at least.

Anyway good luck everyone- lets hope there's blue days (and seas!) ahead :)

[idle dreamer] 25/5/2007 17:23

Good plan Sam. The question will be whether to sell at 1000p -ish and wait to buy back in later, as was possible the last few times it got there, or hang on for more. If you believe that current estimates are conservative, as I do, you have to conclude this company is worth anything up to 1500p per share and it could suddenly take off. But on past form it would be better to sell and rejoin the party later. Maybe sell half at 1000p is the better plan

[sambessey] 25/5/2007 14:01

I have traded back in at 920p, hoping to get some profit off the rise as we head towards the divi and hopefully get back to 1000.

[idle dreamer] 24/5/2007 15:35

You may well be right Idioterna, but I don't think the Court will take the damages claim all that seriously. Damages have to be related to damage suffered. And the BDI could not go on rising like that for ever.

I have just topped up at 898.9. (Spread bet price about 20 p below share price as it doesn't include the dividend. Talking of which I would guess that a few people will buy in to get the dividend over the next few days.)

Let's hope the judgement of history is that Nick's and my minds were great (in thinking alike)!

[idioterna] 24/5/2007 15:29

another 118 off the BDI yesterday (down 6 days in a row now), and another lump onto potential litigation costs. I would suggest this is heading further down.

[nickcduk] 24/5/2007 15:16

Im back in as of this afternoon at 910p. Some sell the news selling was to be expected after the much anticipated positive trading update yesterday. Hopefully it should bounce back towards the high 900's over the coming weeks.

[idle dreamer] 24/5/2007 12:44

Was about to top up when it spiked down this morning but got distracted by wife and then it came back up. Never mind. Shall sit on my hands but take advantage if it spikes down again.

[idle dreamer] 23/5/2007 21:18

I am surprised by the fall today after such a good statement

[deadly] 23/5/2007 11:50

Excellent trading update today. Should have a lot more to go now in the next weeks. Topped up again on the drop earlier today.

[idle dreamer] 22/5/2007 23:47

With hindsight could have sold at the last peak and got back in 25p less even with Finspread's spread. But I think that the company is under-valued so I'm happy to hold. The market seems to have concluded that the court case is of little importance and I suspect it's right.

[daviemac] 21/5/2007 15:37

I think I will get out next time it peaks up. Too volatile for my liking. I have made a fair profit on it already.

[sambessey] 21/5/2007 13:16

Sold my small holding at 1010p this morning. CKN has made me a bit, but I just feel its going to stagnate at around these prices for now with the legal case hanging over their head and so on. Good luck all- I might be back in at some point as this company still has some great fundamentals.

[deadly] 18/5/2007 16:47

Nice bit of volatility these last few days - almost 100 points swing and have traded a few but difficult to deal in more than 1000 often. Still hold a lot.

[ianmckean] 16/5/2007 08:33

BDI up to 6688 today. Well into uncharted territory! I suspect it must have a correction soon.

[davebowler] 15/5/2007 15:15

Yet BMS is up.

[valter] 15/5/2007 14:07

little volume for such a fall.

[ianmckean] 15/5/2007 13:19

Morning all,

Sudden fall. Don't like the look of this.

[the dog catcher] 15/5/2007 00:26

ID - no idea - sure it is innocent - never harns to query and the cheaper you buy a spreadbet the better, just never extend yourself!
On topic: Sat telegraph apparently says the hedge fund is up 19% in the last year...no great shakes!

[hawks11] 09/5/2007 20:14

And now LLOYDS hold 8.195% of the company adding from 7.886% on 20th April which will help to steady the ship.

[idle dreamer] 09/5/2007 10:59

More on divis and spread betting (Dog Catcher's comments eagerly awaited).

Just been looking at ANTO. They go xd today 43 cents say 22p. The price is down about that today as you would expect. But if you compare share price with Finspreads rolling price with Finspreads September price you get a very different story to the story that Finspreads have given me over CKN when I queried the fact that their September price was about 20p lower than the share price.

ANTO share price closed at 570.0 on 4th May
ANTO Sept contract closed at 580.3 on 4th May
ANTO Rolling contract closed at 569.2 on 4th May

Very little difference, in fact the Sept contract 10p more in spite of imminent xd. This probably equates to holding costs.

Going back to 30th March there is a similar picture.
ANTO share price closed at 517.75 on 30th March
ANTO Sept contract closed at 529.0 on 30th March
ANTO Rolling contract closed at 516.0 on 30th March

A similar picture to 4th May, the September contract 11.25p more than the share price. So with ANTO, Finspreads do not appear to have reduced the September contract price to take account of the share going xd on 9th May.

But with CKN ...
CKN share price closed at 1030.0 on 4th May
CKN Sept contract closed at 1013.0 on 4th May

So Sept contract 17p less even though you would expect it to be 20p more because of holding costs if they are similar to ANTO's.

On 30 March the difference was less pronounced, 974.5 for the share and 961.5 for the Finspreads September contract.

So Finspreads are treating CKN holders less favourably than ANTO holders.

[idle dreamer] 08/5/2007 16:29

I certainly agree Cambium. Today's pullback was to be expected after yesterday, and would probably have been a good buying opportunity. I expect it will resume the uptrend soon.

But I've got as many as I can afford right now without putting too many eggs in one basket.

[cambium] 07/5/2007 17:13

I think although relevant the court case has been given a back seat as shipping is the new commodity with companies being snapped up by the Icelandics for a premium,

I think we have alot further to go, esp as CKN has a whopping cash pile and is well positioned for the future.

All imo

[idle dreamer] 07/5/2007 16:44

Thanks Dogcatcher for confirming that.

Stromboli I do sympathise with you. I had not set a stop loss and fortunately had sufficient funds in the account to cover the spike down. These days I try to discipline myself to keep bets small, essentially no more than I might have in a PEP or ISA account. I learnt a very expensive lesson when silver plummeted in May 2006!

I am a little surprised that Clarkson has recovered so quickly from that spike down. Either the market thinks that the action is without merit, or in talking to major shareholders to allay their fears about the court action, CKN has convinced them that there are so many other plus points not taken into account that they were still under-valued.

If you look at their growth over the last five years or so they should be on a "growth stock" P/E ratio instead of 11.43. This is historic and therefore takes no account of the massive rise in freight costs which must undoubtedly benefit CKN. So a significant re-rating to something like 1500p would be justified in my opinion.

[the dog catcher] 07/5/2007 16:15

ID- The rolling bets are for one day only and therefore do not include the divi in the price, as opposed to the quarterly contracts where any dividend adjustment is included.