Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[iandippie] 04/4/2007 19:29

I bought in late yesterday. Chart looks good, doesn't it. Bouncing nicely in the uptrend, and the next leg up should see it challenge last summers high, and with the upgraded forecasts and Panmures target of 1300, this could get there and beyond, real quick. Let's get the last day of the tax year out the way, and off we go.

[rivaldo] 04/4/2007 17:41

Nice finish! And an intra-day reversal too...

I've noticed that CKN is often pretty disinterested in the mornings - larger spreads, more selling - and then it usually perks up in the afternoons. Anyone got an explanation? Anything to do with the USA afternoon traders - might there be US investors/companies buying up parcels of CKN?

[rivaldo] 04/4/2007 10:20

Perhaps the fund managers have now received their reports from the results and will start to act on them, spurred on by the BDI's rise (mind you, they're probably all away on Easter hols already!).

[stromboli1] 03/4/2007 20:20

agreed Rivaldo - lets hope this moves on. As a spreadbetter this can be a frustrating share. Moves are sudden and often dramatic in both directions.

[rivaldo] 03/4/2007 18:19

Nice intra-day reversal to end up blue - and what's more the BDI is up yet again today, another 22 to 5,439.

Some rates are approaching their all-time peaks now.

[rivaldo] 03/4/2007 09:56

Looks like you may get your chance nick! I do disagree though, the point being that CKN is now much more diversified and no longer so reliant on freight prices. In saying that, if freight rates were at low levels I wouldn't be here - but the fact is they're at very high levels and climbing fast, and the prognosis is for continued healthy markets for the next 2-3 years.

Quoted companies are constantly being reviewed and re-rated. It may be that CKN's time for a re-rating has arrived given both the diversification and the continued strong markets. And again, with the AGM coming soon we're virtually guaranteed further good news flow.

[nickcduk] 03/4/2007 09:39

I was watching yesterdays spike down but it would have to fall another 20 or 30p for me to want to get involved again. I read edisons report on CKN and they summed up why the share price isnt moving sharply higher. The market views the shipping industry as highly cyclical and they believe the market is near its peak. I honestly don't see a breakout here to 13 pounds unless sterling falls sharply against the dollar and the BDI continues to rise to 8k or so. Im happy to be proven wrong though :-)

[idioterna] 03/4/2007 09:19

I've asked myself the same thing about BP for 6 months ;-(

[rivaldo] 03/4/2007 07:48

The BDI continues to scorch away, up another 29 to 5,417 yesterday....when will the City finally catch on to what's happening?

[rivaldo] 02/4/2007 15:13

It's one of those CKN moments! Here's your chance nick - down 3% on just 9k shares traded, perhaps a bit of end of tax year profit-taking. Nice price if you can get it imo.

[idioterna] 01/4/2007 23:14

Good luck Nick. I hope you made a good 30% because I think that's what we are looking at this year. Ex divi date is june 1st and I'll be very surprised if the share price is under £11 then. A lot of people forget how small the volume is in this share so the MMs can milk the price on tiny sell volumes, don't get caught out, after results like these and an outlook that is more than just a bit positive, it's hard to find a share better placed for capital growth in 2007. Anyway, I want my £1000 in dividends please. ;-)

[rivaldo] 01/4/2007 21:20

Good luck nick. Doesn't have to be a specific trigger imo to move this higher, just a little bit of awareness in the investing community of freight rates at new highs and of CKN's increased - and successful - diversification. I'd have thought the successful launch of the hedge fund would go down particularly well for example with recurring and fast increasing income.

Also, take a look at the chart for the last couple of years - there's an obvious spike post-AGM in late May. The City always like to hear reassuring and bullish news, and CKN should be no exception.

In summary, there's absolutely no reason at present for CKN to slip by more than say 5% - but there's almost 35% upside to the broker target of 1300p.

For an ISAble stock I'd say that's a pretty good ratio. Plus of course there's a 24p final divi to collect if you hold the shares in 2 months' time, another reason for the institutions to buy in beforehand (and possibly another reason for the price spike in May).

[nickcduk] 01/4/2007 18:47

I got a little tired of waiting around for CKN to move higher so sold out at 976p. I was suprised we didn't break higher but I can't really see what is going to trigger a substantial move higher. The outlook statement was bullish enough so im not sure repeating it at the AGM will do much for the share price. Good luck to all those still holding. Im sure I will rejoin you on any spikes lower, which as we know CKN is quite prone to.

[rivaldo] 01/4/2007 09:43

Thx woracle - this quote sums it up:

"The market was firing on all cylinders in the first three weeks of March, as all sectors recorded strong gains"

With the tanker market also rising things couldn't look better for CKN to report a stonking H1 in next month's AGM.

[woracle] 31/3/2007 12:36

More highlights from



Looks like shipping boom is ongoing till at least 2009..

[rivaldo] 31/3/2007 07:28

The BDI flew up again yesterday, up 33 to 5,388...

At least it's not long till the AGM in May, when the outlook statement will just have to be bullish given current conditions. It's surely just a question of how soon the City will catch on.

[rivaldo] 30/3/2007 15:08

Hard to credit - excellent results, freight rates flying, diversification running smoothly, two positive broker notes - and the price slips 3%.

Maybe end of tax year profit-taking, but imo CKN is bursting for a breakout towards that 1300p broker valuation :o))

[rivaldo] 29/3/2007 22:03

The BDI is holding steady at the highs at 5,355 tonight. Some late buying today - shouldn't take much to get a new recent high and head for all time highs.

[rivaldo] 29/3/2007 15:31

Agreed. 2v1 on L2 so more to come hopefully today.

[idioterna] 29/3/2007 11:54

I have held a few BMS for sometime but traded out this morning and increased my CKN holding slightly, despite the traditional overvaluation comparitive to Clarkson. I honestly believe that on the back of recent results Clarkson should be valued equally. Not to mention the dividend issue.

I particularly like the success of the currency hedging office. I know it is early days but there are a number of other major international players who have ended up making more profit from there trading desks than their core businesses. Not least, BP, GEC.. Clarkson has a clear and profitable strategy going forward and it is no longer determined purely by freight rates such as the BDI.

[rivaldo] 29/3/2007 11:08

QS9, as posted a few posts ago the new Panmure note is out on their web site already:



Forecast 2007 EPS is up from 80.4p to 90.23p, with 2008 EPS up to 98.38p.

You'd have to say that with freight rates the way they are 3 months into 2007 already, this H1 should be much better than H2 of last year in which CKN achieved 45.6p EPS. IMO, although the present share price is excellent value anyway on these forecasts, H1 alone could give say 55p EPS.

Just to reiterate, the above Buy note retains a 1300p target price.

[qs9] 29/3/2007 10:00

Barclays stockbrokers research bit shows consensus eps has gone from 80p to 90p for htis year, so I presume there has been an upgrade somewhere??? Anyone know? WOuld explain the strenght in share price following profit taking initially on results??

[rivaldo] 29/3/2007 09:49

CKN moving back up now - and 3v2 on Level 2, so looking good at the moment.

Woracle, point taken. I'm hoping CKN will take us on a bit of a ride over the coming weeks as it's virtues become appreciated, but I'll try to keep tabs on BMS too.

[woracle] 29/3/2007 01:03

Rivaldo,

I did a lot of research in both CKN and BMS before deciding to split my holding. They are both solid and well managed companies. Dont wanna go into detail here but if BMS show the same growth in their H2 over H1 as CKN did ( and no reason to believe they wont looking at previous years ) they can achieve 38p.. so their historical PE is closer to 10.5. History shows BMS is usually rated higher 2 or 3 points higher than CKN by the market due to stronger growth but for once CKN is rated higher so I expect BMS has a bit of catching up to do relatively... Their y/e is Feb so they will have caught a bit more of this recent surge in shipping prices even..

I'll soon discuss them on the BMS board come run up to their results in May.

W

[rivaldo] 28/3/2007 20:58

Edison have a new investment report out on CKN:



Forget the EPS estimates as they're just out of date consensus which have since been upgraded. The text is a reasonable summary of why CKN should be re-rated, particularly the 23% order book rise, the diversification, the sustained global industry strength etc.

It's pretty brief and doesn't say much we didn't know, but at least it's out there.