Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 23/10/2018 13:47

PMs flying today. What will it take to lift this dog?

[casual47] 23/10/2018 12:22

There's probably limited scope for green shoots in q3 but the first major news event that every analyst will be waiting for is the BOD's guidance on 2019. That should be revealed toward the end of the year.

My expectation for q3 is that AISC will be high (above $1000/oz) and profit modest (not much above a quarter of what they did for q3 2017) so depending on whatever green shoots they can offer it probably won't boost the share price

[oli12] 23/10/2018 11:50

This will re rate once Q4 production performs inline with expectations. IMO the fall was over done and provided a good buying opportunity.

[spacedust] 23/10/2018 11:03

August Cey 120plus gold 1190

[spacedust] 23/10/2018 11:01

Six months ago Cey was 120p plus. Gold was below 1200

[umitw] 23/10/2018 10:59

Gold is up 10 dollars 1234!Cey was 105 p when it was 1228 dollars

[spacedust] 23/10/2018 10:28

What do you mean it's moved from 101p to almost 106p. If gold tpcuhes 1242p it will be 111p

[umitw] 23/10/2018 09:52

1236 dollar for oz. CEY isn't moving up?

[juju44] 23/10/2018 08:54

Double bottom in . This should be much higher with climbing gold

[garycook] 23/10/2018 02:23

Gold is glistening again
If the past few weeks have taught us anything, it is that having exposure to precious metals in an investment portfolio, whether by directly holding the commodity itself or through buying shares of a dedicated gold or silver miner, is a good insurance policy to have.

If you somehow missed it, global stock markets washed out last week on a blend of fears concerning the growing trade wars between the US and China and concerns that rising central bank interest rates would dampen economic growth.

Gold fulfilled its role as a classic safe-haven asset against this backcloth and prices sprang back above $1,230 per ounce to three-month highs, carrying Centamin’s share price back above the critical 100p per share barrier as well. And there’s plenty more macroeconomic and geopolitical trouble out there that could blast bullion values even higher in the months and years ahead, from Brexit and the creation of a new Cold War to the escalation of those trade wars.
In rude health

A key benefit of investing in gold stocks rather than the yellow metal itself is the usual distribution of dividends. And heck, Centamin is quite a doozy in this regard.

The FTSE 250 company is expected by City analysts to pay a total dividend of 5.6 US cents per share in 2018, a figure that creates a mammoth 4.2% yield. The dial leaps to 5.6% for next year on account of the projected 7.5 cent reward.

Centamin’s programme of ramping up gold production certainly bodes well for future profits and thus dividend growth. And Primary Health Properties is another splendid all-rounder that is taking proactive steps to deliver exceptional earnings growth in the years ahead.

[kennyp52] 22/10/2018 19:13

Blip today . Probably down to drop in gold price . Went in for some Fresnillo at 914 which look reasonable value .

[fangorn2] 20/10/2018 11:59

Interesting article gold side...

These ten mines will make money even if gold price falls to $550
This article by Vladimir Basov may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:



These Top 10 lowest cost gold mines are all below all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) $550/oz level and will prove profitable – even if the price falls 50%.

Mining Intelligence looked at costs at primary gold mines and found 10 operations that would still make money, even if gold halves in value from today's levels. AISC metrics has been taken as a basis of comparison and ranking.

Since the World Gold Council (WGC) published a Guidance on AISC in June 2013, which introduced a transparent standardised production cost estimation metrics intended to be used commonly by the global gold industry, a majority – yet not all – of the leading publicly-trading gold producing companies successfully adopted WGC’s recommendations and implemented AISC to their official reports.

AISC metrics provide a more comprehensive look at mine economics than the traditional "cash costs" approach that many companies may interpret arbitrarily – and it includes such important expenses as overhead outlays and capital used in ongoing exploration, mine development and production.


Eoin Treacy's view
All in sustaining costs are certainly a useful metric for addressing the prospects for any mine. However, when we address the list above what we are presented with are the lowest cost of production mines but they are mostly the legacy properties companies started with before they had to spend more money to acquire additional properties which generally do not have the same attractive cost structure.

[fenners66] 19/10/2018 21:53

Cheers Oli.

Just had a look at the OVB share price and it has of course declined.

So they managed to get $6.2m out of the company... sorry I mean spend $6.2m on a 59% acquisition....

[fenners66] 19/10/2018 11:54

Good work.

[casual47] 19/10/2018 10:45

My prediction for q3 results (based on EMRA data for q3 - $10.5m, 117k oz production and the above calculation method):

FCF $12.83m (q3 2017: $45m)
AISC $1013/oz* (q3 2017: $732/oz)

(*assuming average realised gold price of $1212/oz, based on average gold price of
Jul '18 1,238.06
Aug '18 1,201.86
Sep '18 1,199.2
)

Now then, assuming the above is correct......whither the shareprice on results day?

[casual47] 19/10/2018 10:39

I just did the AISC calculation for q2 using my method and it is pretty close:

EMRA payments in q2:
April 7.7 million
May 1.1 million
June 1.4 million

Total profit: (7.7m+1.1m+1.4m):45x100= 22,666,666

Averaged realised gold price:1,298
Production:92,803

Calculated AISC:
1,298 -(22,666,666 : 92,803) = $1,053.75/oz

Actual AISC for q2 as per H1 results: $1,073/oz

[casual47] 19/10/2018 09:48

The AISC for q2 2018 was $1,073/oz
I think for q3 it will be around $1000/oz.

The EMRA payment for October should give the first indication of what q4 is likely to be. It should be in the order of at least $8m to get anywhere near the guidance of $870/oz.

[casual47] 19/10/2018 09:33

I think a lot of the cost burden was carried in q2 and q3.

Based on the 4.5m EMRA payment I arrive at an AISC of around $988/oz for september. (Again, a very crude calculation)

[kennyp52] 19/10/2018 09:15

Interim accounts showed increased inventory of 16m which should be shown at cost . I believe this was stockpiling whilst the price was low ? Translate this into sales value now gold price is back at $1220 plus then this could add quite nicely to the final quarters results .

[kennyp52] 19/10/2018 08:26

Low of 100.85 and some clown bottled it and sold 100,000 ! Share seems resilient around 103.60 until we get the final quarters production .

[casual47] 18/10/2018 22:28

The $87m FCF also corresponds largely if calculating the profit using their average AISC guidance of 870$/oz, the guidance of 480k oz for 2018 and the 55% profit share:

480k oz times ($1200 - $870) times 0.55 equals $87,120,000

[casual47] 18/10/2018 22:02

As I think the majority of Q3 is attributable to September then if we assume q4 is 3 times September then with the crude calculation of FCF for q3 and the known result for h1 we could have a total free cash flow of about 87m for 2018. Based on 100% FCF divi that's a total divi of about 7.5 cents, or a final divi of 5 cents.

All the above is HUGELY broad strokes so please ignore.

(If they were to dip into the cookie jar: 50m is about 4.3cents per share....)

[casual47] 18/10/2018 21:53

The q3 2018 EMRA contributions are a factor of 2.7 lower than those in q1. If it would be as simple as applying that to the free cash flow then q3 ought to be of the order of $12.7m FCF.

If you assume total EMRA payments of $10.5 for q3 equals 45% and FCF equals 55% then you arrive at an FCF of $12.83m for q3

(Q3 2017 was $45m FCF)

[casual47] 18/10/2018 21:41

They only had 1.6m free cash flow in q2 this year, compared to 31.2m in q2 2017, so that clearly was never gonna happen.