Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[hernando2] 12/10/2018 16:02

If they want to be taken seriously by the II's they must dip into reserves for the divi, a cut will immediately get everyone concerned about another shock on production.

Shell was borrowing to maintain their divi during the time they were digesting BG.

I was a holder here and buying in the 30's , then had to sell for personal reasons.

Bought back in here in the low 90's and high 80's on the current fall ( i bought a big holding for me in shell when it was being sold down into the mid and low teens)

and I am confident that if production goes OK they will maintain the Divi.

But I have been wrong on numerous occasions....

[casual47] 12/10/2018 15:18

While 100% net cash flow for 2018 may not get us to 10cents+ total divi I think that if CEY can put the production problems behind them and deliver a good q4 and if they are on track of 580k oz for q1 then they should dip into their cash reserves and make up the difference in order to deliver at the very least 10 cents total divi and ideally 12.5 cents. (So a final divi of 7.5 or ideally 10 cents).

[casual47] 12/10/2018 15:09

Imo, all we need to get back above 150p (nearly 50% up from here) is a demonstration that CEY can deliver 580k oz next year.

I think it's practically guaranteed, with production potentially reaching 650k oz in 2020 thanks to Cleopatra.

So while profit banked is always good, there is a good reason to keep some of your money in here a wee bit longer.

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2018 14:54

Informative:Casual 47. Re:miners have cleaned up their act.

[casual47] 12/10/2018 13:02

The calculation is of course simplified. For many years now miners in general have been treated like the ugly duckling, with any gold price rise receiving a very tempered reaction while severely punishing the miners for the merest drop in gold price.

Partly the reason is historic: miners were highly inefficient cost-wise and were splashing money left and right on foolhardy vanity projects that would never turn a profit and all the while handsomely paying their senior management while often diluting the shareholders or taking on irresponsible levels of debt.

Miners have on the whole cleaned up their act and Centamin especially has been very conservative with its expenditure (some say too conservative). This doesn't mean that miners are now in favour, you just have to look at the 30-50% drops in shareprice we have seen across the sector in the last year to know they are still not the belles at the ball.

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2018 12:53

Jfishy55: Interesting! Re: Gold price and gold mines etc: I must remember "leverage"

It took me a while to get my mind around that but it is astounding simple.

No wonder Gold Mines are a much more profitable venture than gold itself .

[jfishy55] 12/10/2018 11:49

"So as a result,gold mines shares tend to go up or down a lot more than the actual price of gold."

Yes, it is leverage, this is the way it was explained to me:

If gold is $1000 oz and goes up 10% then gold is worth $1100 oz - a %10 profit.
If a company spends $900 oz to get gold out of the ground then it is making $100 oz profit at $1000 oz gold price. If gold goes up 10% to $1100, it still costs the company $900 but now it is making $200 oz - a 100% profit instead of a 10% profit.

[qs99] 12/10/2018 09:30

nice to see Blackrock upping stake DYOR

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2018 09:22

Credit Crunchies: Gold mines give better returns than gold:

I agree with that: Several gold mines will give you between 3 and 4 times the return that gold does if you get the timing right etc.

I think it is partly because any gold ore reserves values go up and down with the gold price and that adds or removes a lot of value to the company or share.

So as a result,gold mines shares tend to go up or down a lot more than the actual price of gold.

[creditcrunchies] 12/10/2018 09:15

I'm holding this because of the gold and the dividends if they maintain those this is just part of riding the next wave up for spot gold. You get better returns from gold mining stock than holding gold or gold ETFs, if think about it you buy gold at 1200 it rallies up to 1600 over many years that's only around +35%. Silver is different you buy silver at 11 if it rallies you can get up to 50 it's worth buying ETF on silver because you potentially get 4x your investment.

[spacedust] 12/10/2018 09:11

A 25 to 30% profit has worked for me pretty well.

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2018 08:41

Yes,take the profits when they are of a useful amount because what goes up,comes down as surely as night follows day. :-)
Decide on a profit target and stick to it.
Don't keep moving your goal posts up.
I think that I will drop it at around 120 and hope for it to fall back again so that I can then jump back in.

[edjge2] 12/10/2018 08:13

For now she's on her way, the inevitable middle east blow up coming for which there is evidence in the bible and quoran worries me a little but this is a robust yellow stuff company. I'd ramp it again but done already.Pssible it could drop to supportive 89 but my truck would be ready by then.
OTT petropavlosk is motoring 10+ a day. As gold up destroys its debt.

[creditcrunchies] 11/10/2018 23:09

Gold does best when the Fed hike for too long then have to reverse rapidly flooding the market with fiat currency to re-inflate the markets. Be good if it starts creeping up before it really blows but we're typically talking years to develop a base

[kennyp52] 11/10/2018 22:21

Gold ended up even higher after UK trading closed ... let’s hope that adds further impetuous to this recovery when we open tomorrow.

[casual47] 11/10/2018 22:04

Longer term, for us gold bugs, this article from zerohedge is still pretty good:



The tl:dr is: that what really powers gold is the perception or belief that central banks / the Fed are no longer in control of events.

The current correction is, arguably, healthy and, despite what Trump says, the Fed rate rises in this respect have a desired effect with regard to the stockmarket: they are acting like a safety valve to prevent overheating of the stock market. So, just on the basis of today's correction the answer is yes, the Fed appears to be still in control and gold bugs will probably have to wait a little longer for systemic fault lines to kibosh the Fed.

[casual47] 11/10/2018 21:36

Yes and gold price was 1325$/oz and Centamin had just finished its best year ever and had set guidance for 2018 at 580k oz, which everyone expected could be achieved...

[spacedust] 11/10/2018 21:28

Sp was around 150p in February. Nice

[casual47] 11/10/2018 20:16

The correction is similar to what we saw e.g. the week of 1st February this year, so far. So in that respect not particularly unusual.

[creditcrunchies] 11/10/2018 20:07

what a day stock market collapse and CEY up almost +10%

[qs99] 11/10/2018 18:37

GOld up nearly 3%, tight squeeze I reckon as well so no reason if risk profile is moving up, that it can't zoom through $1,300 IMO...let's see how firm it looks tomorrow and early next week. Have topped up CEY and SHG/HUM.....DYOR and GLA!

[lodgeview] 11/10/2018 18:11

Gold has a rocket under its bum. Investors piling into gold as perhaps the stock market is now in a bear market?

[lodgeview] 11/10/2018 18:06

US looking dire again and gold at 1221. Tomorrow should see this rocket. Happy days!