Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 17/10/2018 09:08

No one gives a monkey's about Jeffrey. It's gold man sucks note that has the most sign ificsnt effect.

[umitw] 17/10/2018 08:45

* Centamin Plc : Jefferies cuts target price to 115p; rating hold

[edjge2] 17/10/2018 08:44

Crazy not to take some profits from 80s an buy more on next dip. IMO POLY, POG or AAZ might offer better in a rising gold market.

[kennyp52] 16/10/2018 20:59

Gold price yoyoing ... down after close so dare say we will see some profit taking on the open ???

[kennyp52] 16/10/2018 20:31

Casual47 I do understand your point but it is a dangerous policy in my view short term “bluffing̶1; the share price by burning cash on dividends . It has never been a good policy and never will be . It’s kind of pretending there is no real problem and in this case there IS A PRODUCTION ISSUE that has severely impacted this year’s profits and the markets confidence in the stock

[casual47] 16/10/2018 16:24

Correction: they haven't yet given guidance for 2019, they are waiting for the resource update at end of year before they will give it. They have said that the performance in September should be closer to what they expect going forward.

[novicetrade68] 16/10/2018 16:16

12 times 48,000 oz = 576,000 oz and they stated their target for next year as 580,000k. So it seems September is indeed taken now as benchmark.

[shieldbug] 16/10/2018 12:51

48,000 ounces for September is the key figure from the recent preliminary results. Hopefully that is an indication that reduced output from the transition phase is now passed.

[fangorn2] 16/10/2018 09:14

"We have a bullish outlook through the end of the year and into next year," says HSBC precious metals analyst Jim Steel. "Our average is $1,274/oz. this year, which means we'd continue to have a drive up into the end of the year."

[spacedust] 16/10/2018 08:33

Gold up Cey down......

[casual47] 15/10/2018 20:36

Kennyp - i am only arguing for Centamin to stick to its policy of keeping between 250-300m cash. If after 100% FCF divi allocation they still have 300m+ cash why not make good any reduction of divi while still leaving 250m cash.

Perhaps this is not something you have noticed but maintaining dividends is something most companies try to do, even to the extent of borrowing for it. Centamin has loads of cash so why not use it?

[casual47] 15/10/2018 20:31

Each mining plan is designed to achieve a certain annual tonnage and is based on the specific geology as modelled from the drill results (reserves and resources). This is a lengthy process so just whacking in some additional hardware or more workers is pointless.

We can be sure that Centamin is not skimping on hardware and is working to the mining plan. There are no technical or engineering issues. The site is still 24/7 and one of the two development rigs that was at Cleopatra was brought across to help cope with the additional burden caused by knock-on effects of the production issues underground.

[kennyp52] 15/10/2018 20:21

Ever run a business casual47 ? Paying a dividend from reserves when you have given 2 production warnings in the last 6 months will not help the share price . A topped up dividend might buy you a nice meal but my guess is the market makers would not like it .

[mattboxy] 15/10/2018 20:11

I'm not sure drilling more would necessarily help as most of the other processes are working almost at capacity so there would still be a bottle neck somewhere that would also need further capex.

[sum493] 15/10/2018 16:08

I wonder why they don't invest in a couple of extra drilling machines to drive up production faster given the money?

[umitw] 15/10/2018 15:44

Good recovery here!

[casual47] 15/10/2018 13:26

I don't think we need to imply some sort of conspiracy or skullduggery around the reasons for the size of the cash pile.

I think we just have a very conservative BOD, which is a good thing in one way as they are not p1ssing our funds up some CEO vanity project that doesn't do anything but destroy value. The downside is that a risk-averse approach means a slower pace of growing the company, which for a divi stock is perhaps fine for most.

[fenners66] 15/10/2018 12:30

casual - I already posted some time ago - so far back I have forgotten the numbers - that if they lose the penalty plus interest could run into many millions.

I will guess I said $30m and that was one of the 2 cases.

Already been said about holding cash for Capex and more exploration and not considered to be an adequate reason for $300m.

So the board know something we don't and we don't know the potential outcome of the court cases....should they ever get resolved.

[casual47] 15/10/2018 12:15

It's a profit share. They get 45% of net cash, moving to 50% in 2020 I believe.

Centamin can recoup certain expenditures and they don't pay any tax so compared to other miners it's much of a muchness, as whatever the deal is the government usually gets their pound of flesh. I think I prefer Centamin's arrangement as it makes the government a partner.

[spacedust] 15/10/2018 12:00

The gov holds 50% ?? Are they on the shareholders list? I can't see it?

[casual47] 15/10/2018 11:44

Why would they need to raise finance? The current mines are not part of the court case and will deliver profits for years to come. Cleopatra is self-funding. The assets they have outside of Egypt could be funded from net cash if needed.

Also, the government has a 50% stake in Centamin. Do you really think they will let anything bad happen to them?

That's even without considering the merits of the case.....

[fenners66] 15/10/2018 11:37

Looking for a good reason to hold $300m in cash, there is of course the outstanding unresolved court issues.

For all the bravado of the company will win , perhaps the safety net is in the cash reserves so that they do not have to raise finance at what would be a bad time.

[casual47] 15/10/2018 11:10

Nobody is expecting q3 results to be good, they won't be. All we need to see is that Centamin are on their way of having a good q4 and confirmation that the impact of the problems will not carry through into 2019.

[spacedust] 15/10/2018 11:05

I do think a lot of buyers are holding off until the next rns in couple of weeks time. If good results then 140p